To say the Phillies’ 2025 outfield was a black hole of productivity isn’t quite accurate. At least black holes have power.
With Brandon Marsh, Max Kepler, Nick Castellanos, Weston Wilson and Otto Kemp getting the majority of the playing time through the first four months of the season, the outfield was one of the least productive in all of baseball. The arrival of Harrison Bader at the trade deadline provided a much-needed shot in the arm, allowing for a platoon in right of Castellanos and Kepler, with
Bader in center and Marsh/Kemp handling duties in left that helped turn the outfield into a position of strength in August and September.
But it wasn’t a long term solution and Dave Dombrowski entered this off-season with a mission.
Remake the outfield.
After signing Adolis Garcia to a one-year, $10 million deal on Tuesday, it appears the Phillies are doing just that. The 2026 Phillies outfield will be different.
It just may not be much better.
Garcia is an imperfect solution to a world of imperfect options. The Phillies desperately needed a right-handed hitting power bat in the middle of their lineup. They needed to replace Nick Castellanos, who had outlasted his welcome in Philadelphia by season’s end. The Phils reportedly checked in on some of the center fielders potentially available in the trade market (Colorado’s Brenton Doyle, Chicago’s Luis Robert, Jr., and Houston’s Jake Meyers) before settling on a straight replacement from the free agent market in Garcia.
Offensively, you have to squint really hard to find a difference between the outgoing Castellanos and the incoming Garcia.
In terms of fWAR, Castellanos was the worst outfielder who qualified for the batting title a season ago (-0.6). Garcia (0.7) was 43rd out of 48 outfielders. Castellanos slashed .250/.294/.400 with 17 HRs and a wRC+ of 90. Garcia hit .227/.271/.394 with 19 HRs and a wRC+ of 90. Garcia’s OPS the last two seasons is .675, about 4% below league average. Castellanos’ OPS is .719, about 3% below league average. Both players are among the worst at chasing balls out of the strike zone in the league, both strike out a lot and neither player walks very much. But Garcia hits the ball harder more consistently with a much higher exit velocity (92.1 mph) than Castellanos (87.8 mph), and is more likely to barrel a ball up, making him more of a homer threat than Castellanos. He’s also a far superior defender in right field, with one of the best arms in the game.
The Phillies are hoping they get the Adolis Garcia who turned into one of the American League’s best power hitters from 2021-23, hitting 31, 27 and 39 home runs in those seasons, posting an .836 OPS and an ALCS MVP award in his breakout 2023 campaign. In terms of upside, Garcia has more than Castellanos, but it’s based more on hope than anything else. A power hitter with a slugging percentage under .400 isn’t much of a power hitter.
On Tuesday, Dombrowski appeared to be content with the 2026 outfield as it stands, saying “it’s pretty much set.” It is assumed Justin Crawford will be the starting center fielder, signaling the end of Bader’s stint in Philly. Thank you for your service, Harrison. It was a gift.
The Phillies understandably want to give Crawford an opportunity to be an everyday player in the big leagues. This is defensible and smart. And while Crawford has the potential to be a quality big league center fielder, there is real concern about his offensive upside and ability to handle center field defensively. In his rookie season, it would be unreasonable to expect him to match what Bader gave the Phillies during his two months in Philadelphia. He’ll be the No. 9 hitter in the lineup, and fans shouldn’t demand too much.
But if the only changes that are coming to the everyday lineup is swapping out Bader for Crawford and Castellanos for Garcia, it’s going to put a lot of pressure on those guys in particular to produce.
For 2026, you’re not likely to be “better” in center field, and you’re at least an offensive wash in right field, although defensively, you’re likely two wins better. Dombrowski and Rob Thomson have been talking up Otto Kemp with a surprisingly amount of emphasis this winter, all but making it clear they see him as a major piece of the puzzle next season with Marsh in left field.
An outfield of Marsh/Kemp in left, an unproven Crawford in center and another reclamation project in right does not sound championship caliber. But it is what the Phillies have chosen/been forced to do.
It also doesn’t answer the team’s desperate need for a cleanup hitter to protect Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Assuming J.T. Realmuto re-signs with the team, it’s likely Thomson will once again be rotating through Alec Bohm, Realmuto and, now, Garcia, depending on who has the hot hand. And in those stretches when none of them does, the offense is going to frustrate a lot of people.
Ever since the departure of Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies have failed to find a power-hitting right-handed hitter to take over the cleanup spot. The hope is Garcia can return to being the player he was from 2021-23, when he made two All Star teams. It’s not impossible to believe Garcia can return to that level of production, but if history is our guide, one can hope but should not expect it after two straight subpar seasons. The Phillies made a similar bet with Kepler last off-season, on an identical contract, and although his underlying metrics indicated a breakout was always imminent, the results never materialized.
Dombrowski’s record of players succeeding on “prove it” deals has not been stellar over the last few years. He’s hoping Garcia will buck that trend.
If nothing else, the Phillies should feature a solid defensive outfield, especially in the corners when Marsh and Garcia are in the lineup. Crawford’s defense in center field has its detractors, so we’ll have to wait and see on that. The team will enter 2026 with Johan Rojas, Gabriel Rincones, Weston Wilson, Pedro Leon and Bryan de la Cruz as potential in-house options to help.
Honestly, it’s a disappointing signing in my view. While Garcia was the second-best right-handed hitting outfielder on the free agent market (Bader), it wasn’t an impressive selection to begin with. It’s unfortunate Dombrowski was not able to find anything creative on the trade market, whether it be adding an impact bat on the infield and dealing away a member of the core roster (Bohm?) or pulling something off in the outfield. But the Phillies continue to feature a farm system lacking in top-tier talent, leaving Dombrowski with a shallow cupboard from which to trade.
The hope of a fan often doesn’t line up with the reality of Major League Baseball.
So, Dombrowski and the Phillies have embarked on another paint-by-numbers off-season. They’ve re-signed Schwarber, Realmuto is likely coming home, they’ve signed Garcia, and a free agent reliever is likely the last item on the agenda.
No, they’re not blowing things up like the Mets this off-season. That’s a good thing. Maybe they’ll finally convince a Japanese import to take their money. That would be fun.
And if Garcia surprises everyone, than the Phillies will have hit a home run with this signing. If not, it’s going to be another frustrating season in the outfield.
