Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, September 25 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium — Greenville, NC
- Spread: East Carolina (-4.5)
- Over/under: 53.5
- All-time series: East Carolina leads, 8-1
- Last meeting: Army 45, East Carolina 28 — October 19, 2024
- Current streak: Army, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
There is only one college football game transpiring this Thursday night.
ESPN showcases one of the American Conference’s best gameday environments as Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium hosts the matchup between East
Carolina (2-2, 0-0 American) and Army (1-2, 0-0 American). ECU had full command of this series, winning the first eight matchups until Army finally got on board last October. The Black Knights’ 45-28 victory in West Point incited a head coaching change in Greenville, and the Pirates have turned the ship around since, faring 7-3 under Blake Harrell.
This short week forces both teams to get over their Week 4 defeats, and only one can generate its first conference victory by the time Friday morning rolls around.
Army Black Knights outlook
There are only three FBS programs to have tied or surpassed their loss total from 2024, and Army is one of them. The Black Knights manufactured a historic 2024 campaign, setting a program-record 12 wins and securing an American Conference championship. 2025 hasn’t been the smoothest follow-up act starting with a nightmare overtime defeat to FCS Tarleton State and starting conference play 0-1 after a second overtime defeat vs. North Texas.
But Army already defeated one purple opponent as road underdogs, besting Kansas State in Manhattan by taking care of the ball and hoarding time of possession — two signature qualities of Jeff Monken’s most successful Army teams. Ball security has been a major issue for these Black Knights, committing three turnovers in both overtime defeats. If they strides are made in that department, perhaps they’ll start to look more like the team that hoisted the conference crown last December.
Army is tasked with making a crucial decision in this short week at quarterback. Both Dewayne Coleman and Cade Hellums have logged starts this year, and both witnessed highs and lows. Hellums guided the Kansas State victory with a stellar rushing effort, but he was benched last Saturday vs. North Texas when the Black Knights trailed 28-7 due to three turnovers on their first four series. Coleman checked in and led the 21-point comeback to force overtime but was shaken up in overtime, causing Hellums to finish the game. Both quarterbacks are candidates to start Week 5, and there is a chance we could see both in case the offense is need of a spark.
Turnovers aside, the Black Knights are moving the ball very well, stringing together 14-straight possessions in regulation without a punt. They’re fourth nationally in rushing with Coleman and Hellums ranking first and third on the team in the category. Hayden Reed is thriving as the lead running back fresh off a 113-yard game, while Noah Short is a versatile option as a slot back/wide receiver in this option offense. He has 129 rushing yards and 106 receiving yards this offseason and lines up in a variety of positions. Short is one common target in Army’s rare passing situations and the other is Brady Anderson, a home run threat who averages 33.4 yards per reception on five catches this season.
Early returns suggest the greatest difference between 2024 Army and 2025 Army is the defense. The Black Knights fielded the fourth-best FBS scoring defense at 15.5 points per game last year. Currently, they’re 116th and 32.0 points per game albeit a small sample size. They’ve already allowed 30 points twice, when 2024 Army only surrendered 30+ twice — in losses to Navy and Notre Dame.
The run defense particularly has taken a step back, allowing 165 yards per contest. This is how Tarleton State stuck close with Army even before the Black Knights’ late barrage of turnovers, and also, it was North Texas’ main strength during a 28-point first half. The chief run-stoppers on this Army unit are linebackers Andon Thomas and Kalib Fortner — the team’s top two tacklers from a year ago. Thomas ranks first on the unit again with 29 takedowns while Fortner is leading the backfield invasion with a team-high four tackles for loss.
But against East Carolina, the passing defense will likely be tested more. Week 2 American Conference Defensive Player of the Week Collin Matteson is questionable, and Army will need his presence Thursday night whether he is available or not. Matteson has the defense’s lone interception this year and ties for the team-lead in pass deflections. Another name that must step up in the secondary is Casey Larkin who currently ranks second on Army in tackles and picked off four passes during a standout 2024 campaign.
East Carolina Pirates outlook
East Carolina was presented several opportunities at signature non-conference victories to open the season, but the Pirates whiffed on both. Right after defeating NC State in the 2024 Military Bowl, ECU received a chance to double down on the victory Week 1, but a poor first half put the Pirates in too deep of a hole to climb out of. Then last Saturday, ECU hosted a BYU team that won 13 of its last 15 and although the matchup remained neck-and-neck the entire first half, the Cougars opened up their lead in the second half to produce a 34-13 final in Greenville.
The Pirates are sitting .500 heading into conference play, but this 2-2 start isn’t without its positives. ECU’s defense clamped Coastal Carolina in Week 3 for a 38-0 victory, solidifying the program’s first FBS shutout since 2000. Defense has been a bright spot so far, and it showed its mettle even in the losses — notably in the second half vs. NC State and the first half vs. BYU.
Heading into the BYU game, ECU ranked atop the country in turnovers forced (8) and turnover margin (+7), but those trends ceased as the Pirates lost the turnover battle 2-0 to the Cougars. Still, even when it isn’t generating takeaways, there are sharp qualities about this ECU defense. It ranks seventh in the FBS landing 9.0 tackles for loss per game, with five different members of the front toting 3+ TFLs on the year. Everything about this defense is an incredibly concerted effort, even in the tackling department. Safety Ja’Marley Riddle ranks first with 20 tackles and and fellow safety Teagan Wilk isn’t far off checking in at eighth on the team with 13 tackles.
Army presents a different type of offense the Pirates must prepare for, as their run defense will be put to the test much more than the coverage unit. Right now ECU ranks 20th in stopping the ground game, allowing 87.0 rushing yards per game on a 2.8 average.
The Black Knights’ clock-chewing, ground-oriented possessions often force opponents to turn to the run game themselves in order to keep their defense off the field longer. East Carolina hasn’t exactly jump-started its rushing attack this season, ranking 100th nationally in yards per game with London Montgomery (37.8 yards per game) serving as the leading rusher.
The Pirates are far more advanced in their passing scheme thus far. Quarterback Katin Houser is fourth in the FBS with 1,258 passing yards, and it’s been efficient yardage with a 68.4 completion rate. Houser was similarly explosive last year, but the main goal of ECU’s passing attack this year involved cutting interceptions. The Pirates ranked first in 2024 in interceptions thrown, and they did a fantastic job of avoiding picks until BYU came to town. Two second quarter interceptions turned the tide of the entire game — specifically one in the end zone with a chance to take the lead.
Still, Houser is equipped with elite arm talent. The gunslinger has fired for 285+ yards in all four outings, and the Pirates are comfortable making him throw 35-45 times per game. ECU is also loaded in its receiving corps with three different receivers over 260 yards on the year. That includes Brock Spalding, Yannick Smith, and Anthony Smith — options that feature varying sizes and skillsets. Yannick Smith was the star of the show last week, hauling in nine receptions for 146 yards at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
Prediction
It doesn’t matter if it’s FCS Tarleton State, Kansas State, or North Texas — every 2025 Army game has been decided by the thinnest of margins. Two of those contests went overtime and Kansas State was about 10 yards away from a reasonable field goal to force overtime.
This one has the makings of a close contest. East Carolina’s offense is potent but a bit more one-dimensional than North Texas’ given the Pirates’ inability to generate a working run game through the first four weeks. However, Katin Houser should be able to create significant production with his arm — it’s just a matter of how much Blake Harrell and the Pirates’ staff want him using it against an Army team that’s destined to hog time of possession.
East Carolina’s sharp run defense will provide some resistance to the Army offense to keep this a lower-scoring matchup than the Army-North Texas game, but the Black Knights have proven they can move the ball well on anybody as long as turnovers don’t play a factor — whether it’s with Cade Hellums or Dewayne Coleman.
Army punches in a late touchdown to prevail in a back-and-forth affair, securing the road win in Greenville this Thursday.
Prediction: Army 28, East Carolina 24
