Last year, I started tracking a stat every week that was inspired by Brian Billick’s “Toxic Differential” statistic that combined explosive play and turnover differential into a single number. My version
added sacks to the mix and doubled the value of turnovers. I called the statistic “Toxic Differential Plus” as an homage to Billick’s original idea.
In an effort to make the name a little more intuitive, I’m rebranding Toxic Differential Plus to STEP Differential. STEP stands for Sack + Turnover(x2) + Explosive Play Differential. As I have said many times, there are no perfect statistics, so please don’t mistake this for trying to be that. However, I think it provides an incredibly interesting view into overall team health and tells an interesting story as we navigate another NFL season.
I’m using Infogram again this year:
The Falcons are the only team with a positive STEP Differential with a losing record, the 49ers are the only team with a negative STEP Differential with a winning record. The Panthers are the only team at .500 right now so I left the label in there. The Denver Broncos take the lead behind a dominant defense and a creative playcaller. Pretty good combination. That AFC West will be a ton of fun to watch down the stretch. Despite the loss, the Bears (+23) still remain near the top of STEP Differential, one slot behind the Packers (+26) and three slots behind the Lions (+29) to give the NFC North three of the top six teams. That division is living up to preseason expectations even if the Minnesota Vikings may not be coming along for the ride. I would call those two divisions the most interesting in the league and as we near the halfway point in the schedule, I don’t think it’s crazy to think those divisions could send three each to the playoffs (depends on how much you believe in the 49ers in the NFC and Jacksonville in the AFC). Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking from a Bears fan.
I have kept the previous end of year data going back to 2020 on the slides (click through on the chart if you’re interested). Given the state of the statistic eight weeks in (stable!), I’ll switch up the charts and show each component stat on a 2×2 chart like last year starting next week.
