We’re still 11 days away from Selection Sunday, but there won’t be that much drama for Arizona when the 2026 NCAA Tournament field is unveiled.
The Wildcats (28-2) are all but guaranteed to be a No. 1 seed for the second time in five years under Tommy Lloyd, and almost certainly will be placed in the West Region with opening weekend games in San Diego. The West Regional is in San Jose, meaning the UA’s route to a possible return to the Final Four in Indianapolis could go entirely through California.
According to BracketMatrix.com, Arizona is a unanimous No. 1 seed on all 132 projected brackets listed. The same goes for Duke and Michigan, all three of whom have separated themselves from the pack both in on-court performance and odds to win it all.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Arizona is +480 to claim its second national championship, first since 1997, while Duke and Michigan are +340. The next-best odds are Florida (+800), Houston (+1200) and Illinois and UConn (+1800 each). At the beginning of the 2025-26 season, the UA was +3000 but immediately dropped after knocking off defending NCAA champ Florida in Las Vegas.
Even a loss at Colorado in the regular season finale and an early departure from the Big 12 Tournament next week isn’t likely to drop Arizona from a No. 1 seed, so it’s time to start looking at the potential first round opponents for Friday, March 20 in San Diego. The Wildcats would play a No. 16 seed, either directly or from a pair that meet in Dayton, Ohio for a First Four matchup two days earlier.
Per BracketMatrix, the most likely opponents will be the ones that win the following one-bid low-major conferences: America East, Big Sky, Horizon, MAAC, MEAC, NEC, Ohio Valley or SWAC.
Arizona has already played SWAC regular season champion Bethune-Cookman, so if it wins that automatic bid that won’t be an option. Same if Norfolk State claims the MEAC title or NAU somehow wins the Big Sky tourney despite being in last place.
In 2022 the UA opened against Wright State, winners of the Horizon League. The Raiders won the league again this season and play in the conference tourney quarterfinals on Wednesday night.
Other potential qualifiers from those leagues include UMBC (America East), Portland State (Big Sky), Merrimack (MAAC), Howard (MEAC), Long Island (NEC) and Tennessee State (OVC).
To get to a fourth Sweet 16 in five seasons under Lloyd, Arizona would face the winner of an 8/9 game on Sunday. Per BracketMatrix, the consensus No. 8 seeds right now are Clemson, Miami (Fla.), Saint Louis and UCF, but the NCAA selection committee would have a conference rematch in the second round so the Knights wouldn’t be the Wildcats’ second-round foe. The projected No. 9 seeds include Georgia, Iowa, Missouri and North Carolina State, though several brackets have Texas—and former UA coach Sean Miller—as a potential 9.
As for the West Regional in San Jose, current consensus No. 4 seeds on Bracket Matrix are Alabama, Gonzaga (!!), Kansas and Virginia, while the No. 2 seeds are Florida, Houston, Illinois and Michigan State. The same conference wouldn’t have both the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the same region, so that would rule out a potential rematch with Houston for a spot in the Final Four.
