Earlier in the week, I went through the pure free agents coming up this offseason. Now, why didn’t I speculate about those with opt-outs and options? Well, it’s because with a potential salary cap I think maybe some of these club options become more valuable, and maybe some of the player options, too. A salary cap is likely to suppress salaries going forward, but these recent market rate deals might help teams make a floor or fit into under a cap, especially if the deal is from 2-3 free agent markets
ago — inflation counts! The Giants can, of course, afford every free agent, but they can easily afford any of these options, too. They even have the trade capital!
So, this is another long list of obvious targets. I don’t know what names Zack Minasian has on his pro scouting ledger who might prove just as valuable (your Anthony Molinas and Cesar Perdomos) or who the Giants might be considering to plug into the rotation next year at some point (Jackson Flora? Jacob Bresnahan?) but, this is a little bit different from that list of pure free agents.
Rather than looking at 2 or even 3 starters who could provide a minimum of 100 quality innings (again, think like the Justin Verlander deal in 2025), I think a trade would necessarily involve a pitcher who could be projected to provide more than that and over a longer term, not only to pair with Logan Webb — as the team has done or at least tried to do since 2022 — but also to possibly succeed him when they let him walk after 2028. I also think a combination of a pure free agent and a trade would be the most effective way to build up the rotation again, and a stronger rotation ought to make it easier to make the bullpen better in a hurry.
So, let’s look at some guys who are plausibly available via trade and, therefore, starting pitchers the Giants could acquire who could stick around for more than a season. But! Some of these players are likely to simply have options declined or opt out, making them free agents.
Opt-outs
Corbin Burnes
Arizona’s final payroll rankings for the past three seasons (per Cot’s MLB Contracts):
- 2024: $223.74 million (13th in MLB)
- 2025: $216.10 million (14th in MLB)
- 2026: $230.00 million (12th in MLB)
So, they’re no slouches on the payroll tip, but in each of those three seasons they’ve carried, effectively, dead money thanks to starting pitching injuries. In 2024 & 2025 it was the injured corpse of Jordan Montgomery (~$40 million), and in 2025 & 2026, it was the TJ’d husk of Corbin Burnes (~$62 million).
Following a successful run as a Brewer (45-27, 3.26 ERA in 709.1 IP from 2018-2023) and Oriole (15-9, 2.92 ERA in 194.1 IP in 2024), he’s thrown just 74.2 IP for the Diamomdbacks across two seasons and 14 starts.
His post-surgery rehab schedule made him available by this season’s end, and Arizona tried him out to see if he might be able to give them some innings and possibly get them into the postseason. It didn’t pan out. After a solid start (0 runs, 2 hits, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts; 57 pitches in a 3-inning appearance on September 8th), he came apart, allowing 9 runs (all earned) in 7.1 IP in just two more appearances. Five home runs allowed. His season ended on the IL with shoulder inflammation.
He will not opt out of the final four years on his deal ($32.91 million AAV, $24 million in real money annually with $11 million a year deferred to 2033-2036). It’s likely that Arizona will seek some salary relief if only to move some of that money around to help other areas of their roster. The Giants kicked the tires (briefly) when he was last available.
So, look at this as a 4-year, $96 million deal for the age 32-35 seasons of a guy who hasn’t yet cracked 1,000 innings — although, that’s because he’s run into the injury bug as he’s approached that threshold. Still, before he landed in Arizona, he had five straight seasons of receiving Cy Young votes and even won it back in 2021. Of course, the Giants are coming off a terrible year of arm injuries for their pitchers and might not be interested in taking on another patient.
Michael King
Now, I’m going to say that I think the chances of there being a salary cap are still probably well below 50%, but he’s the exact type of player likely to be impacted by it in the short-term. He has a very interesting pair of opt outs he can exercise after this or next season. If he doesn’t opt out this offseason, he’ll make $28 million in 2027. If he opts out this offseason, the Padres will pay him $5 million as a buyout. And if he opts in, he can opt out again or stick around for 2028 and earn $30 million (no buyout if he opts out). A very tricky decision. Less because of the potential salary cap and more because he’s, essentially, contracted for his age 32 and 33 seasons for $58 million — if he wants that. Is he going to be able to get a 4-5 year deal, cap or no cap? If we just double it, does he get a 4-year, $116 million from somebody?
King has been good for San Diego (they got him in the Juan Soto trade with the Yankees) with a 3.15 ERA (3.86 FIP) in 78 games (77 starts) and 432 IP. Left knee inflammation ate into his 2025 season (just 73.1 IP), but he has been their ace. It’s unclear if he’ll opt out (though, admittedly, likely) and, despite the Robbie Ray deal, it’s unlikely the Padres would trade their current ace to the Giants. The Padres have new, young owners who spent a lot of money to get the team. They might want to keep the stadium full, but they also might want AJ Preller to curtail spending a bit. He could be on the trade block even if he does opt in.
Clay Holmes (technically, a player option)
He made $13 million this season but his player option is for $12 million, which might be reason enough for him to decline it. But, heading into his age-34 season and coming off a post-acquisition performance (the Mets traded him to the Cubs for their playoff push) that was simply not good (4.25 ERA /4.09 FIP in 48.2 IP, 6.1 K/9, 4.4 BB/9), it’s plausible that he uses it and becomes a trade chit for Chicago. He is, basically, a lesser version of Logan Webb. He has a higher career groundball rate than Webb (62.3% vs. 56.3%) but he walks way more (3.89 BB/9 vs. Webb’s 2.14 career). But, he has the 93 mph sinker-sweeper combo that’s similar. He has three inches and 20 pounds on Webb, too, and has only gone back to starting pitching recently (he was a reliever from 2018-2024) so his innings count is low. It’s unclear if he will opt out.
Luis Severino (technically, a player option)
I’m sure he wants to get far away from West Sacramento — 4.43 ERA in 225.1 IP overall in his two seasons with the Athletics, but a 5.85 / 3.14 Home/Road ERA split — and there’s still plenty of stuff in his arsenal (96-98 with two fastballs, a great sweeper and an effective-ish cutter), but he might find it difficult to match or beat the $22 million he’ll be owed in 2027 ($22.333 CBT figure) even in his age-33 season. He’s another guy who’s running into the injury bug as he crosses into his 30s and exceeds 1,000 innings, and his 2026 season ended in a somewhat alarming way with a right shoulder strain impacting the shoulder capsule and subscapularis muscle. In terms of a Giants-Athletics trade, I think at this point, neither organization gives a heck about optics. He is unlikely to opt out, but the Athletics will almost certainly be willing to trade him.
José Berríos
He will not be opting out because he’ll be recovering from Tommy John surgery throughout 2027 for $24 million. He’ll also be owed $24 million the following season. I’m sure Toronto would love to move the salary.
Tatsuya Imai
Not that long ago, he was a highly sought after starting pitcher. He did not finish the season in Houston’s rotation and hit the IL in April due to arm fatigue. Another foreign league transfer to flop or first year jitters combined with misuse and poor development from a franchise that’s very much at a crossroads? I’m inclined to go with the latter. First, though, he will not opt out of his 2 years and $36 million remaining. He is unlikely to improve upon that in free agency, cap or no cap.
Would the Astros trade him is the question? After all, he did get a lot better once they stuck him in the bullpen (2.00 ERA in 18 IP with 25 K against 11 strikeouts and only two extra base hits allowed — a pair of doubles). I’ve got to believe they’d be open to it, in which case there’s a case to be made that he’d be an intriguing addition to the Giants’ rotation. That’s not a terrible AAV ($18 million) for just two seasons and a guy’s age-29 and age-30 seasons. It’d sync up with Logan Webb’s remaining time, too. They have some similarities: a sinker-slider combo (though, Imai has more velocity).
Just looking at Statcast, he seems to use his four-seamer to try to get a strikeout, but his two most effective pitches are his sinker (.182 batting average against) and slider (.167, 39.7% Whiff rate). But, he also threw a splitter, a changeup, and curveball. He stopped throwing his sinker mid-season, too, and that was after he came off the IL. Could that be because the Astros had one of the worst defenses in the sport and wanted to limit balls in play? Unclear. So, there’s an effective pitch mix in here. And, it’s worth noting that Statcast, based on his velocity and movement, compares him to these Giants-y pitchers: Luis Castillo, Cal Quantrill, and Adrian Houser.
Club options
Drew Rasmussen
Because he managed to stay healthy, the 30-year old righty has increased the Rays’ 2027 option to $20 million. The Rays recently declined options on some players we figured they’d trade so maybe there is a change in their decision-making giving revenue streams and the risk of an increased budget if they can’t find a trade partner or whatever, and I doubt this World Series appearance will meaningfully impact that, but it’s worth pointing out that Rasmussen was the seventh-most valuable starting pitcher in MLB this season. His 5 fWAR trailed The Miz (6.6), Cristopher Sanchez (6.2), Cam Schlittler (6.2), Chris Sale (5.8), Jesus Luzardo (5.5), and Dylan Cease (5.5). The Rays will be picking up this option. It’s also only for 1 year, and the Giants will (and should) want to trade for players who’ll be around for multiple years.
Nick Pivetta
Because he spent more than 130 consecutive days on the IL (right elbow flexor strain), his opt out converted into a $14 million team option! I could envision the Padres trading King or Pivetta, but not both, and then it comes down to the risk appetite for a 34-year old coming off elbow problems that persisted into his rehab. The Padres will pick up his option, but the Giants shouldn’t be interested. They had their chance to sign him last offseason (he was one of the last free agents standing).
Sandy Alcantara
It’s a reasonable $21 million option for a former ace who has returned from Tommy John as a #2 or #3 type. He pitched an MLB-leading 214 innings in 2026, averaged 97.6 mph with his fastball, but struck out just 6.4 per 9 (though walked just 2.5 per 9). A 3.87 ERA (4.08 FIP) and 3.2 fWAR. Slightly undervalued by that contract by a few million, but otherwise, a good trade candidate, since the Marlins will pick up his option and try to move him. But with just one year on the deal, the Giants ought to be out.
Maybe I shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss these one-year deals, though. There’s certainly utility in trading for them if they’re a part of a larger haul or a three-team deal, or even if another team is just wanting to do a bit of a salary dump/reconfiguration. The Giants, who have no expectations, are in a great position to explore every avenue for acquisition. Speaking of…
Colin Rea
The Cubs have a $7.5 million club option on the righty (with a $1 million buyout), who will play his age-36 season in 2027, both of which seems not terrible for an innings-eater type; but, fellow SB Nation site Bleed Cubbie Blue readers said “No” to that option in this poll and so I’ll go with the wisdom of the crowd here to say he’ll be available. Plus, the Cubs need to improve their pitching significantly if they’re going to be meaningfully competitive in the next couple of seasons and, despite printing money, they’ll likely prefer moving some of their current budget around to achieve their goals rather than increase it.
But the Giants? They’re just marking time until they win the talent lottery and all of the usual competition gets worse. He might be a perfect back-end starter for a team that’ll need starting pitching innings. Since returning from Japan in 2023: 124.2 IP, 167.2 IP, 159.1 IP, and 137 IP. The Cubs probably won’t pick up his option, which means the Giants wouldn’t have to trade for him — so, why is he on this list at all? Well, what, you’d rather I put him as a free agent? What if I’m wrong?
Mutual options
Now, most mutual options are not picked up. They are almost always sops to the player from the front office to show that they’re interested in the player to a degree but are hoping that the player can see the writing on the wall by the time the mutual decision must be made. So, these are most likely just pure free agents who have to go through one extra step to get there, but I’m including them in this post because you never know! The threat of a lockout and the short-term nature of these options might just compel players and teams alike to seek a bit more certainty.
Sonny Gray
It’s a $30 million mutual option with a $10 million buyout, which I assume only comes into play if Boston declines it. If that’s the case, then Gray has to pick up the option on his end, right? He would have the chance to get $10 million plus whatever free agent deal might be out there. Even a 1-year, $25 million deal puts him ahead for the season. He made a ton of sense for the Giants back when I wouldn’t shut up about him, but I think that ship has sailed. He’ll be 37 and as good as he was in 2026 (18-5, 2.72 ERA, 3.4 fWAR), he missed time with a hamstring injury (just 169 IP) and his fastball velocity dipped for the third consecutive season.
Matthew Boyd
The Cubs are likely to decline this $15 million mutual option ($2 million buyout), but if they do pick it up, he’s already been a Giant and he seems like he’d cost a lot for the type of pitcher they don’t really want in the starting rotation: a low strikeout (6.8 K/9 in 2026), low groundball guy (42.2 GB%). Even from the left side, it doesn’t seem like there’s a worthwhile trade here.
Nick Martinez
Another $20 million mutual option that seems the Rays would decline. I could see them keeping Rasmussen or Martinez, but not both, and Martinez is an interloper. He’s wound up being a great free agent pickup, but it’s unlikely they’d have an easy time of finding a trade partner for a soft-tossing righty and so might want to avoid burdening the payroll with such uncertainty. 2027 will be his age-36 season, too. And, I failed to mention above, but it’s tough to trade with the Rays. Even in a salary relief situation, they are likely to extract a player the Giants might actually need more in the near-term.
Dustin May
Another $20 million mutual option ($500,000 buyout) that I feel certain the Brewers will decline. Whether or not they win this World Series, he wasn’t good for them after they acquired him from St. Louis (5.65 ERA in 36.2 IP) and he hasn’t been in the postseason (6.43 ERA in 7 IP).
As a pure free agent addition, he’s not particularly intriguin,g either. Since returning from Tommy John, he has a 4.82 ERA in 278 IP for four teams (Dodgers, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Brewers). He’ll be just 29, though, and has a live fastball (96+), still gets strikeouts and doesn’t walk too many batters.
Michael Soroka
I presume that Soroka will decline this $10 million mutual option, because he had a good season to reestablish his value. He really broke out there in 2019 at the age of 21 when he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 29 starts, was an All-Star, got Cy Young votes, and came in second for Rookie of the Year. But then he was hurt for all of 2021 and 2022 and before this season he pitched for four teams (Atlanta, both Chicago teams, and the Nats) and was 5-21 with a 4.85 ERA in 215.1 IP, primarily as a reliever. He’ll be 29 to start next season (unless the season begins mid-August, which, gulp). The real problem is that he did miss time with arm troubles: right arm inflammation in August.
Lucas Giolito
The Padres are not so desperate for SP help that they’ll pick up their end of the mutual option and the Giants are not so desperate for veteran depth that they’ll sign another after-30 starter with arm troubles who has been in a steep decline since the start of the 2022 season (4.49 ERA / 4.63 FIP in 520.2 IP).
Griffin Canning
He is another starter the Padres signed in the offseason to provide warm bodies for their rotation, along with Giolito, German Marquez, and Walker Buehler. They needed numbers which is why they opted to spread the money around. Canning was used as either a starter or bulk reliever through his first 16 appearances, but after that, he was firmly a reliever who came in during blowouts in either direction. Over his final 14 appearances, he had a 3.04 ERA in 23.2 IP (3.90 FIP).
In 2025, he was exclusively a starter for the Mets but his season was cut short (just 16 GS) by a left Achilles rupture. If you jump back to those numbers, he seems a little Giants-y: a 94 mph fastball (four-seam) with a high-spin slider (2,736 rpm). The option is for just $5 million so, I don’t know, maybe San Diego picks it up as a depth piece just because there’s a little bit of positive projection in the profile. I would think maybe it becomes tradeable if AJ Preller is able to get into some big transaction and the Giants have decided to keep their powder dry for most of the offseason.
Zack Littell
I’m sure the organization doesn’t like Gabe Kapler any more than it likes Farhan Zaidi, but Littell’s public protest has to be a sticking point, right? Also, it’s not difficult to improve upon Littell in trade or free agency. Technically, he’s a pure free agent now, as ARizona released him back in August, but MLB.com still has that mutual option attached, so, my mistake.
Zach Eflin
Rehabbing from Tommy John for most of next season. Baltimore will decline the option, too, as it’s for $25 million.
Getting creative
Okay, after exhausting all of those option options, let’s just take a look at who’s left: players we can imagine being available just because of arbitration. Now, the entire point of arbitration is to make the cost of players still under team control predictable/projectable, but what usually happens is that teams find out they have other needs that can’t be addressed through draft & development or even cost too much in free agency and so trades become important. To be clear, I don’t think all of these players are on the trade block, I’m just noting that arbitration-eligible players tend to be the more tradeable types out there for execs trying to take a big swing.
For example, the Mariners have fifteen arbitration-eligible players, including:
Logan Gilbert ($15.4 million arbitration projection)
Most likely to be traded given that he (1) makes the most of the group (2) will be in his age-30 season (3) has already crossed 1,000 MLB innings — and had the accompanying injury: a flexor strain of his right elbow in 2025 and (4) is trending upwards in walk and home run rates (a career-high 3.83 FIP).
Now, would the Giants go, “Yessir, Mr. Dipoto. Drop your castoff directly into my spreadsheet!” Probably not, and mainly because it’s his final year of arbitration. Plus, as with a lot of these trades, where’s the requisite value? Gilbert is in decline, but a 3-WAR player for a 1.5-WAR player (Jung Hoo Lee, let’s say) doesn’t make a lot of sense for Seattle. But then, is a Harrison Bader’s un-voidable contract, a top 20 prospect, and another prospect for Gilbert a worthwhile investment for the Giants? Even if they had it in mind that they could trade him at the deadline when the season drives into a ditch again?
George Kirby ($9.8 million)
With two years of arbitration, a Kirby trade feels a little more realistic. Looking at his Statcast and it looks like there’s a potential fix just with the pitch mix; but, his 7.6 K/9 is (1) really bad and (2) a huge decline from 2025 (9.8) and well below his career average in his first four seasons (8.8). He’s also at 812.1 career innings, which puts him right on the precipice of having his first big injury. Oh wait, he experienced that last season when he hit the IL before the start of the season with right shoulder inflammation. Is that injury plus this year’s steep decline a sign that he’s on the verge of a major injury?
Bryce Miller ($6.075 million club option or $3.9 million arb projection)
Miller also missed time in 2025 with right elbow inflammation and this season he missed time with a left oblique strain. In his first two MLB seasons (2023 and 2024), he had a 3.52 ERA in 311.2 IP, an 8.4 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. With his injury-shortened 2025 and 2026, he has a 4.82 ERA in 209 IP, an 8.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He amassed 4.6 fWAR in those first two seasons and just 0.9 total the past two seasons. It seems likely that the Mariners will decline their option and negotiate with him with the arbitration pressure. Or, they could simply trade him and the three years of team control for prospects.
He’s got a great arsenal that has been quite effective in his MLB time, including this season.
Bryan Woo ($5.2 million)
Do I want the Giants to hoard as many Bryan with Ys and Cal Poly grads as possible? Absolutely. Woo would qualify. He’d be a great fit, along with the three years of team control. He’s already amassed 10.9 fWAR in his 3+ seasons of MLB. But if you look at his 2025 & 2026, well…
Top 10 pitchers by fWAR, 2025-2026
- Cristopher Sanchez, PHI — 12.7 fWAR
- Tarik Skubal, DET & LAD — 11.9
- Jesus Luzardo, PHI — 10.9
- Paul Skenes — 10.7
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto — 9.6
- Dylan Cease, SD & TOR — 8.9
- Logan Webb, SF — 8.6
- Bryan Woo, SEA — 7.7
- Jacob deGrom, TEX — 7.7
- Kevin Gausman — TOR & CHC — 7.2
To acquire a player who has already amassed 10.9 fWAR in 3+ seasons of MLB and has been the 8th-most valuable SP of the past two seasons (7.7 fWAR — trailing Logan Webband would be in his age 27-29 seasons would take a good amount of talent.
Jerry Dipoto’s seat should be white hot. He’s got to do something. The Mariners scored (5) fewer runs than literally the Giants and (2) fewer than literally the Reds. Only the Angels (655) and Blue Jays (648) scored fewer runs than the Mariners’ 664. They were also 16th in runs allowed (722) and value (14.2 fWAR). They allowed more runs than the White Sox? The Padres? The Marlins?? These were all teams they were expected to be better than; and, in the case of their pitching, far better.
Joe Ryan (MIN)
Susan Slusser suggested him a week and a half ago, citing that that he’ll be entering the final year of his deal in his age-30 season and that the hometown connection (grew up in San Anselmo as a Giants fan) would make it easier to get some sort of a discount on a long-term deal.
Injury hampered his season a bit (down to 144.2 IP versus 171 the year prior), but he’s still thrown just 786 MLB innings and his stuff was exactly the same as its been when he did pitch. He’s been, consistently, a 3-WAR player and he’s set to make around $9 million in 2027.
But Ryan isn’t the only Twins starter on the last year of a deal, which complicates matters: Pablo Lopez (30, a 3-WAR pitcher when healthy, $21.75MM), Stockton’s Dean Kremer (31, a 2-WAR pitcher when healthy, $7.75MM arb projection), and Bailey Ober (31, a ~2-WAR pitcher when healthy, $7.25MM arb projection) all figure to be on the trade market, and if Taj Bradley (26 and 3 years of team control) is also made available, then it would seem that the Giants would have to offer a lot for potentially not very much. At least in the offseason. Maybe a mid-season trade could materialize if, somehow, the Giants are competitive. Or they could just wait a year for him to become available.
Reid Detmers (LAA)
The Angels opted not to trade him at this past deadline, but with a new ownership group in place there might be a call for drastic measures to improve the club’s standing after its first-ever 100-loss season. Trading away a bright development success and one of the top pitchers in the sport (4.9 fWAR — 9th in MLB) doesn’t make much sense, but at the same time… looking at Detmers’s cumulative value for his career… he’s at 11.1 fWAR, the same as MacKenzie Gore for whom the Rangers traded back in January before this season. In that deal, the Washington Nationals got Texas’s #5, #11, #12, #17, and #24 prospects in exchange for Gore and his two years of team control. Detmers also has two years of team control remaining. Does that automatically set the floor at 5 top 30 prospects?
Possibly.
If Los Angeheim did that deal today, it would be Ramon Marquez, Henry Lalane, Keyner Martinez, Argenis Cayama, and Yunior Marte. But those are all pitchers, and in the trade, Washington only got back one pitcher.
But also, the Giants shouldn’t expect to be any good the next two seasons… at least not to the point that they should be delivering five Top 30 prospects for two years of one starting pitcher. That seems like a foolhardy move that would do more harm than good. But it is intriguing.
The team could still get creative with other players in arbitration: Bryce Elder (ATL), Kutter Crawford (BOS), Nick Lodolo (CIN), Peter Lambert (HOU), Clarke Schmidt (NYY), Shane McClanahan (TBR), but they’re all in the final year of arbitration and so thinking of them as actual targets doesn’t seem right. The Giants have to behave as though they’re still at least 2-3 years away from being even a tiny bit competitive again and make moves with that timeframe in mind — not in terms of tanking or keeping their powder dry or whatever, but in simply making sure that their trade or financial commitments are multi-year.
This is not an exhaustive list, of course, but it’s a rundown of the most obvious trade targets. Are there obvious ones you think I missed or some under the radar ones you think fans should keep in mind as the offseason nears?
