Many centuries ago, Sun Tzu said in The Art of War: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
As a good friend of mine remarks with regularity, we know them better than they know themselves, so Sun Tzu knew exactly what he was talking about. Maybe he was from Plains Farm.
“Know
yourself and you will win all battles,” he added.
And maybe it’s why Sunderland are on a 10-game unbeaten run against the hosts.
You know what they say about pressure, don’t you? It’s for tyres, and for 20-year-old mag YouTubers who haven’t had the pleasure of experiencing a derby victory in living memory. In contrast, there are five-year-old Sunderland fans who remember last December fondly.
Though we must be aware of the hosts’ backlash, we should not fear it. There is a path to victory, one some may even say is well trodden; marked with the footprints, dirty knees and discarded Bidvest tracksuits of Gus Poyet, Sam Allardyce, Paolo di Canio, Dick Advocaat and most recently, Régis Le Bris.
The path to victory is clear because it relies on the calmness on the banks of the Wear, and the anxiety haemorrhaging all over Tyneside, as it has done for well over a decade now; though there should be no complacency, as we must shut the door to defeat.
Yet whatever happens, this is an occasion in the wider battle that has already been won. From the depths of League One, this position we find ourselves in on the eve of the biggest away game for years is remarkable – it is one of equals.
Equals, I hear you say? Well that’s the put-down we’ve had for more years than even the most seasoned of Sunderland fans care to remember. If you did a poll 12 months ago offering the scenario presented before you, what percentage of ‘hosts’ fans would have taken this? The answer, on this hypothetical survey, is… 0%.
The age-old adage that Newcastle are the standard bearers of the north-east, the club who have been to places we could not dream of, the representatives on the world stage. The purveyors of the purest form of football the region has to offer on the much-fêted Cathedral on the Hill. Yet Sunderland fans have this rammed down their throats in order to allow Newcastle fans to feel better about their own shortcomings, failures, underachievement, and the fact the Devil bought their souls in the DFS January sale.
For all this building themselves up, it simply hasn’t been backed up.
To put it another way, the reality is by countless metrics this club has the upper hand against a stagnating, tired, stale and restless club shorn of the pipe dream of success to be replaced with the reality which bites hard: your club hasn’t and probably never will break the elite. The only thing Newcastle United have had in the last 30 years is the thought they might reach that promised position they awarded themselves in their heads following their glorious failure in 1996. And no, last season doesn’t count. If the richest club in the world goes out and wins a League Cup, it’s like you or I going to McDonald’s and buying the largest Happy Meal you could find. It’s nothing to write home about, but you might feel good about yourself in the moment. Until you wake up at 3am desperate for a pint of water.
They are a club which has marked their own homework for too long, but in Sunderland they have a nemesis that no matter what the result tomorrow, they will always be there.
Sadly, the hosts have grown corpulent on their misguided belief that it will amount to what the supporters believe is their right. They are a cautionary tale barely 12 miles away from us and we should always, always remember where we came from.
Yet we are still left with some incontrovertible realities: Sunderland travelled to League One and back – and yet are here as equals.
Newcastle United have spent the best part of £1bn on wages and transfer fees, yet Sunderland are here as equals.
Sunderland were told they would break Derby’s record, and are here as equals.
We were told Newcastle United had the best central midfield in the Premier League, if not Europe – and are here as equals – and that’s being generous.
Last summer we were thanked for the six easy points… it turned out to be a fallacy.
We’ve battled so hard to have days like today, back when we were caught up in the fog of war in the third tier, and we believed the viewpoint that this club was on a life-support machine, that we had to get down on bended knee for the likes of Charlie Methven; when actually it was simply dormant. Well, now we’ve erupted and the hosts are running for cover.
Because their news has been delivered by Sun Tzu himself: those who wish to fight must first count the cost.
But listen, none of this really matters. There will be a backlash, both from December and their humiliation at the Camp Nou. There can be all the flowery language and grandstanding we like ahead of this monumentally important match (yes, yes I know the irony, I recognise it, however I lack the willingness to change), but really there are only a few key things to remember, in order for Régis Le Bris to plot a path to glory.
He was right to give nothing away in his pre-match press conference, both in terms of injuries and plans. “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt” as Sun Tzu said. All Le Bris had to say was this group knows the performance level required to win, which they do.
“We’ve got to play like our lives depend on it,” said Eddie Howe. Well, in that case their plans are clear: fast start, get the lead, strangle Sunderland. Ride the atmosphere, get three points. Howe believes he knows the level required to win, but the question is can they keep that up for any more than 45 minutes, given their midweek shellacking?
Liam Rosenior admitted on Saturday night that the trip to Merseyside had been a step too far for his weary Chelsea side, given their exploits in the Champions League on what was basically a dead rubber against PSG. Multiply that by 10 for Howe’s side, who will have so much lactic acid in surplus, they could put it on their cornflakes, in their tea, with enough left over to take a bath in it.
Therefore Le Bris and his team know exactly what’s required to win. A free week and a chance to tactically prepare, versus a side picking itself up off the canvas. Though you know what? They actually might still be down long after the 10 count has been called.
If that’s the case the killer blow should be swift, ruthless, and decisive. It is all about this Sunderland team and how it performs. Victory is there if the execution is perfect.
Let’s make sure the hosts stay on the canvas.
