According to StatMuse, Real Madrid have missed more big chances than any club in Europe’s top five leagues this season. The number is staggering: 42 big chances missed in LaLiga alone. Even more striking is who’s responsible for the bulk of them — Kylian Mbappé (14) and Vinícius Jr. (8).
On the surface, this looks like a finishing crisis. Dig a little deeper, though, and it tells a more nuanced — and arguably more encouraging — story.
The Paradox of Volume
Big chances don’t appear by accident. They are the product of territorial
dominance, chance creation, ball progression, and attacking structure. You don’t miss 42 big chances unless you’re constantly getting into positions to score.
By that logic, this stat is a backhanded compliment to Real Madrid’s attack.
Madrid are not struggling to create. They are overwhelming opponents, generating high-quality looks at goal at a rate unmatched across Europe’s elite leagues. The issue is that the final action — the finish — has lagged behind the process.
And history tells us that process is the more important indicator.
Mbappé and Vinícius: Wasteful or Inevitable?
Mbappé’s 14 missed big chances will draw headlines, especially given the expectations attached to him. But context matters. Elite forwards who make prolific off-ball runs and generate high shot volume will always post higher miss totals because they take more shots from dangerous areas. Mbappe, of course, more than makes up for it with his overall goal tally.
With Vinicius, it’s a bit different. His eight missed big chances are the flip side of his relentless movement, dribbling volume, and ability to destabilize defensive blocks. He is constantly forcing situations that lead to chaos — sometimes the finish sticks, sometimes it doesn’t. This season, his offensive production is lagging way behind.
Regression Is Madrid’s Ally
Finishing is notoriously volatile over small and medium sample sizes. Over time, conversion rates tend to normalize, especially for attackers with long track records of elite output.
If Madrid continue creating at this level, it’s far more likely that goals will start flowing than that the drought will persist.
In other words, this stat is less a red flag and more a warning sign for the rest of LaLiga — and Europe.
Because if even a fraction of those 42 missed chances start turning into goals, Madrid’s underlying dominance will finally show up on the scoreboard in full force.
The Bigger Picture
Real Madrid’s season so far can be summarized simply:
- Chance creation: elite
- Territorial control: elite
- Shot quality: elite
- Finishing: below expectation
That imbalance rarely lasts.
Real Madrid’s current finishing issues are far more concerning given that the defense has been very porous since the start of November, which means that opponents are punishing the missed chances by taking advantage of Real Madrid’s defensive holes. The margin of error has been too small for Real Madrid to be so inefficient in front of goal.
Madrid are doing the hardest part consistently — breaking teams down and generating clear looks. If the finishing improves, results are likely to swing sharply in their favor. Perhaps Rodrygo Goes’s rise in the last few games will help with that.
