The last time the Dallas Cowboys faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home (Week 16 of 2024), it was a quarterback battle between Baker Mayfield and Cooper Rush for the home team. The time before that, it was the 2022 Wild Card game in Tampa Bay – Dak Prescott versus Tom Brady. Now in Week 5 of 2026, we get yet another different QB matchup of Dak Prescott against undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels.
The one constant for the Buccaneers over this time has been head coach Todd Bowles, now in year five. Last
season was Bowles’ first time not making the playoffs in Tampa, and already his chances of doing so this season have taken a massive hit with the team losing their first four games, as well as Mayfield as their starting QB.
The Bucs have failed to take to the identity a Todd Bowles team should have, with the third fewest sacks of any defense so far this season with six. The Giants, Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins have less, as well as the Cowboys with four.
Despite this, their defense is the second best in the league behind only Seattle in percentage of receptions given up that result in a first down. They are third in rushing yards allowed and second in yards per carry, and as a result of all this have been in four straight one-score games. The only opponent to score over 30 points on the Bucs so far this season was the Bengals in Week 1, and Tampa themselves have not scored more than 27 (also in that game) so far.
For this year’s Cowboys, playing against Todd Bowles marks yet another defensive-oriented head coach for Brian Schottenheimer to scheme against at the start of this season. It has been four straight to reach this point already, and the results are a split down the middle at 2-2.
How the Cowboys offense figured things out on the fly to avoid a 1-3 start despite being down 16-6 last week in Houston against DeMeco Ryans and the winless Texans could be encouraging when it comes to signs of progress against these defense-first coaches, and something Dallas would welcome in their return home for Thursday Night Football.
Setting expectations as fans for a decisive win is almost always a bad idea that leads to nothing but disappointment, but there is buzz around Cowboys fans this week that this game could be a classic example of an AT&T Stadium runaway where the offense piles on points, the defense gets takeaways as a result, and the Cowboys cruise.
The Bucs will have some clear reasons to think this won’t happen to them, though. In Daniels’ first start last week against the Green Bay Packers, the Bucs fixed their season-long red zone woes on offense and went 2-2 scoring touchdowns. Even with throwing two interceptions, the Bucs played their closest game of the season, only losing 17-14. A bit like the Cowboys, the Packers came into this game needing a win where they not only came out on top but looked really good doing so, but did not get it in Florida.
The Cowboys offense is putting up chart-breaking numbers on points and efficiency despite having the fewest possessions in the league, so if this is indeed the week they get their first interception of the season, those extra possessions could go a very, very long way. The more tangible thing to look for in this game would be if the second half momentum from the comeback in Houston carries over against Tampa Bay.
Coming into that game, we pointed out how Dallas has historically struggled with teams playing in desperation mode, which the Texans already were at 0-3. That certainly showed itself for large stretches of that game. A combination of the Texans relying on their four man rushes, which were getting home in the first half but not so much as the game went on, and then getting exposed by Prescott when bringing extra rushers in the second half, led to the Cowboys offense figuring things out to go on a game-winning drive.
The pressures should come early, often, and everywhere in between from an even more desperate Bucs team. The Cowboys will need a sound protection plan against a team that will be hellbent on doing everything they can to hold Prescott’s play down in order to have another shot to steal a game.
The Dallas offensive line is getting better news coming into this game on Thursday, looking to have left guard Tyler Smith back in the lineup. The extra peace of mind that the pocket will be clean for Prescott will allow the Cowboys to go after starting cornerbacks Jacob Parrish and Zyon McCollum for the Bucs.
The Cowboys will be hoping their four game body of work against similar defensive challenges up to this point gives them a chance to stack two wins in five days, and put a bow on three games in 12 days with a winning record.
After two long field goals were missed in the Texans game, scoring touchdowns would be the best way to do so, especially given how their last home game against the Buccaneers went. Dallas started the scoring with a 58-yard Brandon Aubrey field goal, went up 13-7 on a 49-yard field goal, and ended the first half by going up 23-14 with another 58-yarder. Another Aubrey make from 53 yards was their only score of the second half.
As simple and borderline silly as it is to say, touchdowns will win this game for the Cowboys, which would be a third straight against the Bucs. The Cowboys have not won three straight against the Bucs since winning five in a row from 2006-2012.
You have to go back even further though to find the last time the Bucs won in Arlington with a quarterback not named Tom Brady. This was 2001 when Brad Johnson ran in a one-yard touchdown against a Quincy Johnson-led Cowboys team to turn a 6-3 Dallas lead in a slugfest into a 10-6 Tampa win. This was the first loss of the season for a Cowboys team that started 0-4 themselves.
Despite never making the playoffs as head coach of the Jets from 2015-2018, this 0-4 start to a season is the worst any Todd Bowles coached team has ever had, and chance for the Cowboys coaching staff to prove a little bit more they’re the right fit for the job of taking this Cowboys team back to the playoffs by reaching 3-2 and sending the Bucs to 0-5.
