Since Friday’s bracket, former No. 1 overall seed Arizona dropped it second game in a row, while Big 12 title rival Iowa State swept a Saturday/Monday homestand featuring a resurgent Kansas squad and a Houston club that was poised to jump up to the top line with a road win. That leaves us with a shuffled top eight—Michigan still the king of the 1 seeds, followed now by Duke, Arizona, and UConn. Line two consists of two conference pairs—Big Ten rivals Illinois and Purdue and the Big 12’s Cyclones
and Cougars.
Texas Tech’s surprising road win in Tucson sees the Red Raiders join Nebraska, SEC-leading Florida, and Gonzaga, which took control of the WCC race by winning at Santa Clara, as 3 seeds. Kansas and Michigan State both dropped to line 4, joining holdover Vanderbilt and Friday 5 seed Virginia.
The Cavaliers’ ACC rivals from Louisville and three SEC squads—Arkansas, Alabama, and Tennessee—are on deck on seed line 5.
Your midweek TV guide follows today’s full bracket and rundown.
NOTE: Changes since Friday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
(16) Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)/NJIT (AE)
▲(8) Miami (Fla.)
▲(9) Texas
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Tennessee
(12) Belmont (MVC)
▼(4) Kansas
▼(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Saint Louis (A 10)
(11) USC/TCU
(3) Florida (SEC)
(14) Austin Peay (ASUN)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Utah State (MW)
(10) Indiana
(2) Iowa State
▲(15) Merrimack (MAAC)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn (Big East)
—/★(16) LIU (NEC)/Howard (MEAC)
▼(8) NC State
(9) Texas A&M
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(5) Arkansas
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
▼(4) Michigan State
★(13) High Point (Big South)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(6) North Carolina
(11) Santa Clara
▲(3) Texas Tech
(14) Portland State (Big Sky)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Kentucky
(10) Saint Mary’s
(2) Illinois
(15) Navy (Patriot)
(2) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
★(16) Utah Tech (WAC)
(8) Iowa
(9) Auburn
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Louisville
(12) South Florida (American)
(4) Vanderbilt
★(13) UC Irvine (Big West)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) St. John’s
▼/★(11) UCLA/Ohio State
(3) Nebraska
(14) ETSU (SoCon)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(7) Wisconsin
▼(10) Georgia
(2) Houston (Big 12)
(15) App State (Sun Belt)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona
★(16) UT Martin (OVC)
(8) Villanova
▼(9) SMU
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
▼(5) Alabama
★(12) Yale (Ivy)
▲(4) Virginia
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
▲(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Clemson
▼(10) UCF
(2) Purdue
(15) Wright State (Horizon)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Saint Mary’s, Georgia, Indiana, Santa Clara
Last Four IN: USC, TCU, UCLA, Ohio State
First Four OUT: San Diego State, New Mexico, Seton Hall, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Missouri, West Virginia, California, VCU
On Deck: Oklahoma State, Baylor, Boise State, Nevada
The Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes are a great example of how timely results can impact your seeding. For weeks, the Canes hung right around the Cut Line thanks to a combo of metrics well within at-large range and the fact their best wins were road victories over Syracuse, Wake Forest, Mississippi, and Notre Dame—four teams not in the at-large discussion. However, the combo of a home win over North Carolina and road victory over NC State—two teams likely to be in the field—has moved Jai Lucas’s team from seed line 11 to 8. Teams in this group would be well advised to follow Miami’s example.
ARRIVALS (7): High Point (Big South), Howard (MEAC), Ohio State, UC Irvine (Big West), UT Martin (OVC), Utah Tech (WAC), Yale (Ivy)
DEPARTURES: Cal Baptist (WAC), Harvard (Ivy), Hawai’i (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Tennessee State (OVC), Virginia Tech, Winthrop (Big South)
Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (11): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, USC (First Four), UCLA (First Four), Ohio State (First Four)
SEC (10): Florida (auto bid), Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Miami (Fla.), SMU
Big 12 (8): Arizona, Iowa State, Houston (auto bid), Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, UCF, TCU (First Four)
Big East (3): UConn (auto bid), St. John’s, Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
25 one-bid conferences
There are three Big Ten teams ticketed for the First Four as of this projection, which means bracketing principles have been relaxed, following the NCAA’s selection and seeding guidelines.
Games to Watch
- All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted.
- Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance with standout games in bold.
- Teams in the field are preceded by their seed number (1) to (16).
- Teams out of the bracket but still alive for an at-large are marked with an (OUT).
Tuesday
(1) Michigan at (2) Purdue, 6:30 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
(6) North Carolina at (8) NC State, 7 (ESPN)
(5) Louisville at (9) SMU, 7 (ESPN2)
(11) TCU at (10) UCF, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(8) Villanova at Xavier, 6:30 (FS1)
(6) Saint Louis at Rhode Island, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
South Carolina at (3) Florida, 7 (SECN)
(11) Miami (Ohio) at UMass, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(7) Wisconsin at (11) Ohio State, 8:30 (FS1)
(11) UCLA at (4) Michigan State, 8:30 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
(OUT) Virginia Tech at (8) Miami (Fla.), 8 (ACCN)
George Washington at (OUT) VCU, 8 (CBSSN)
Southeast Missouri State at (16) UT Martin, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
(3) Nebraska at (8) Iowa, 9 (BTN)
(10) Georgia at (7) Kentucky, 9 (ESPN)
(OUT) Baylor at Kansas State, 9 (ESPN2)
LSU at (9) Texas, 9 (SECN)
Air Force at (OUT) New Mexico, 9 (Altitude/MWN)
(3) Texas Tech at Arizona State, 11 (ESPN2)
Grand Canyon at (OUT) San Diego State, 10 (CBSSN)
(OUT) Nevada at San Jose State, 10 (MWN)
The Tuesday schedule is absolutely loaded—with the clash at the top of the Big Ten featuring the 14-1 Wolverines and 11-3 Boilermakers crucial in both the conference title and the national top-seed races. There are also key bubble matchups in the ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten. Ohio State has a great opportunity to boost its case by cooling off a red-hot Wisconsin squad. Georgia, TCU, UCLA, and Virginia Tech will all aim to pick up vital road wins, with the Horned Frogs trip to Orlando being particularly important. NC State, SMU, and Iowa at least join the Buckeyes in getting their quality win opportunities in their own building.
Wednesday
(5) Arkansas at (5) Alabama, 7 (ESPN)
Oklahoma at (5) Tennessee, 7 (ESPN2)
(7) Clemson at Wake Forest, 7 (ACCN)
Creighton at (1) UConn, 7 (TNT/TruTV)
Mississippi at (9) Texas A&M, 7 (SECN)
(OUT) Butler at (OUT) Georgetown, 6:30 (FS1)
UAB at Temple, 7 (ESPNU)
Wichita State at East Carolina, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Dayton at (OUT) George Mason, 7 (CBSSN)
(14) ETSU at Furman, 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Lehigh at (15) Navy, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
DePaul at (OUT) Seton Hall, 8 (TruTV)
Charlotte at (OUT) Tulsa, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Florida Atlantic at UTSA, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
(14) North Dakota State at South Dakota State, 8 (Midco Sports/Summit League Network ($))
North Carolina Central at South Carolina State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
(6) BYU at (1) Arizona, 9 (ESPN)
(4) Kansas at (OUT) Oklahoma State, 9 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
(4) Vanderbilt at (OUT) Missouri, 9 (SECN)
(9) Auburn at Mississippi State, 9 (ESPN2)
(6) St. John’s at Marquette, 9 (TNT)
(10) Saint Mary’s at Seattle (at Climate Pledge Arena), 9 (CBSSN)
(4) Virginia at Georgia Tech, 9 (ACCN)
Utah at (OUT) West Virginia, 8:30 (FS1)
(2) Illinois at (11) USC, 10 (BTN)
(OUT) Boise State at (7) Utah State, 10 (FS1)
(3) Gonzaga at San Francisco (at Chase Center), 11 (ESPN2)
(OUT) Colorado State at UNLV, 11 (CBSSN)
It’s too bad that some of those Tuesday showdowns weren’t scheduled for a Wednesday that lacks punch until the 9 Eastern window. The early evening highlight sees current top 5 seed Arkansas (17th overall) traveling to Alabama (19th overall). Later, Arizona will look to sweep BYU and snap its two-game skid, while Oklahoma State, Mizzou, and USC can all improve their respective statuses relative to the Cut Line with home wins.
Thursday
Memphis at (12) South Florida, 7 (ESPN2)
FIU at (12) Liberty, 6 (CBSSN)
Monmouth at (13) UNCW, 7 (FloHoops ($))
UNC Asheville at (13) High Point, 7 (ESPNU)
USC Upstate at Winthrop, 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
(14) Austin Peay at North Florida, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
IU Indianapolis at (15) Wright State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) LIU at Saint Francis, 7 (NEC Front Row)
UAlbany at (16) NJIT, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Vermont at UMBC, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
Alabama State at (16) Bethune-Cookman, 7 (SWAC TV)
(16) Utah Tech at UT Arlington, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Texas State at (15) South Alabama, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
(16) UT Martin at Little Rock, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
(13) UC Irvine at Long Beach State, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
Cal Poly at Hawai’i, 12 a.m. (Spectrum Sports Hawai’i/ESPN+ ($))
Idaho at (14) Portland State, 9 (ESPNU)
For the second Thursday in a row, there are no power conference games with bracket impact on the schedule. However, there aren’t many Championship Fortnight title previews on tap either. Think of Thursday as an opportunity to get ready for the mayhem that will start on March 2nd.
My next projection is on Friday, which will be the final one before the Selection Committee’s annual bracket preview show (Saturday, 12:30 p.m., CBS). That exercise will inform my work the rest of the way. By the way, we’re one month away from the First Four tipping off.
