The exercise of running a re-draft of the 2024 NBA Draft piqued my curiosity: where would Bilal Coulibaly land in a re-draft of 2023? And, just scanning down the list of drafted players…it won’t be 7th.
This is not a big an indictment of Coulibaly as it might seem. He still has lots of potential, he’s far from a finished player, and 2023 is a strong draft class. Like most drafts, the “re-draft” list will likely bear little resemblance to the actual draft order.
In 2023, the Wizards entered draft night with the eighth pick and several second rounders. They traded a couple seconds and that eighth selection to move up one spot and pick Coulibaly. They made several other trades that netted them Tristan Vukcevic.
One of the picks they dealt was number 57, which the Golden State Warriors used to select Trayce Jackson-Davis, who had a solid first round grade in YODA and will likely go fairly near the top in this re-draft.
Let’s get into it.
The 2023 NBA (Re)Draft
- Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs | ACTUAL: 1 (Actual team with this pick: Spurs) — Went first, deserved to go first, and would still be first in a re-draft conducted by anyone not related to one of the other prospects. Wembanyama is already — at age 21 — a historically impactful defender. He’s also a freakish offensive prospect who dominates inside and can shoot threes. Oh yeah, he’s 7-5 with insanely long arms.
- Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets | ACTUAL: 4 (Actual team with this pick: Charlotte Hornets) — Can’t shoot threes (27.5% last season, which improved on the 13.8% from his rookie year), but he does everything else — rebound, make plays for teammates, and plays great defense. His overall offensive rating (points produced per 100 individual possessions) has been above average with a 19.6% usage rate in each of his first two seasons. This kid is a baller.
- Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons | ACTUAL: 5 (Actual team with this pick: Portland Trail Blazers) — Very similar to his twin brother, though not quite as good.
- Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks | ACTUAL: 12 (Actual team with this pick: Houston Rockets) — My pre-draft assessment on Lively (late first or early second round grade) was completely wrong. His numbers at Duke weren’t strong, but the physical tools were in place to be highly productive. He and the Mavericks coaching staff has him focused on doing things he’s good at doing. It helped to be teammates with Luka Doncic. My only trepidation with taking him this high is that he didn’t play much last season after Doncic was traded. He should still be effective with competent guard play.
- Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors | ACTUAL: 19 (Actual team with this pick: Detroit Pistons) — I seriously considered a few other guys for this spot, and I think it would be reasonable to select any of them. I went with Podz because there’s dimension to his game — he shoots reasonably well, he attacks, he sets up teammates, he rebounds well for his position. The defense is a bit challenged, but he’s a solid player who’s entering his age 22 season.
- Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder | ACTUAL: 10 (Actual team with this pick: Dallas Mavericks) — Wallace was part of a trade that landed Lively in Dallas. I considered Wallace at five because of his shooting and defense, though I ultimately went with Podz because I think there’s more dimension and upside to his all-around game.
- Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets | ACTUAL: 2 (Actual team with this pick: Wizards) — Honestly, I think this is still too high for Miller. The production hasn’t been there through his first two seasons — some of the per game numbers are elevated because someone has to take shots on a bad Hornets team. There’s serious potential, though.
- Trayce Jackson-Davis, Golden State Warriors | ACTUAL 57: (Actual team with this pick: Indiana Pacers) — I hesitated on making this pick because he was a 23-year-old rookie, and he’s now entering his age 25 season. And, while productive, he’s still flawed. And yet, the production is solid, and there’s a genuine NBA role for how he plays.
- Toumani Camara, Portland Trail Blazers | ACTUAL: 52 (Actual team with this pick: Utah Jazz) — Another older prospect (23 as a rookie) who rated as a late first or early second in YODA and fell to the late second round. He’s also been productive — especially on the defensive end.
- Bilal Coulibaly, Washington Wizards | ACTUAL: 7 (Actual team with this pick: Dallas Mavericks — traded to OKC) — I would listen to arguments that Coulibaly should go a couple slots higher. I’d also listen to arguments that he should go lower. His strengths: defense, transition play, athletic tools. Weaknesses: shooting, ball handling, motor/tendency to disappear for long stretches, overly deferential to teammates. His production has been erratic, though he did improve from year one to year two.
- Gradey Dick, Toronto Raptors | ACTUAL: 13 (Actual team with this pick: Orlando Magic) — In the real draft, Orlando used this selection to take Jett Howard, who has played badly for them. Dick struggled as a rookie before improving significantly in year two. Am I saying the Magic would have been better off with Dick instead of Howard? You bet.
- Keyonte George, Utah Jazz | ACTUAL: 16 (Actual team with this pick: OKC — traded to DAL) — Fairly promising guard prospect, though the Utah clown show makes it a little difficult to discern how much of his inefficiency is about George as a player and how much is due to the environment. I considered taking him as high as eighth.
- Brice Sensabaugh, Utah Jazz | ACTUAL: 28 (Actual team with this pick: Toronto Raptors) — Coming into the draft, I was confident Sensabaugh could shoot. My concern was…well…everything else. Through two seasons, that’s pretty much borne out. The shooting could be something special, though — maybe even good enough to fall into the “valuable rotation player” category. And, he’s still just entering his age 22 season and could improve some of the non-shooting aspects of his game.
- GG Jackson II, Memphis Grizzlies | ACTUAL: 45 (Actual team with this pick: New Orleans Pelicans) — Most of Jackson going 14th in this re-draft is based on a pretty good rookie season — last year was an injury-riddled disaster. He should get a significant opportunity to bounce back in year three as the Grizzlies rework their rotation and offensive system.
- Cam Whitmore, Houston Rockets/Washington Wizards | ACTUAL: 20 (Actual team with this pick: Atlanta Hawks) — Whitmore graded well in YODA, was high in most mock drafts, and then inexplicably fell out of the lottery on draft night. He’s still a promising mix of youth, size, athleticism, and aggression. He will get shots up. He’s not very likely to pass. The Wizards acquired him for effectively nothing this offseason.
Honorable Mentions
- Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat | ACTUAL: 18 — Older prospect who looked promising as a rookie but didn’t improve.
- Anthony Black, Orlando Magic | ACTUAL: 6 — Great size for a guard but hasn’t played well.
- Jarace Walker, Indiana Pacers | ACTUAL: 8 — The guy who went after Coulibaly. Hasn’t been much good, though he did have a few moments in the playoffs.
- Scoot Henderson, Portland Trail Blazers | ACTUAL: 3 — I just can’t quit Henderson. He was horrible as a rookie, and better but still bad in year two. I’m rooting for him.
A few others I considered adding to the Honorable Mentions list, but don’t quite make it: Marcus Sasser, Mouhamed Gueye, Tristan Vukcevich (probably goes in the first round in a full re-draft), Ben Sheppard, Julian Strawther.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
