The trajectory of Ohio State women’s basketball in March Madness

SB Nation

It is halfway through the 2025-26 season for No. 19 Ohio State women’s basketball, so it is time to start talking postseason. Specifically, March Madness and the Buckeyes’ place in the annual 68-team tournament.

Head coach Kevin McGuff’s team has to make it like any other Division I school, meaning a Big Ten Tournament championship or an at-large bid. Here is where Ohio State sits now, the road to the postseason, and is there a situation where the Scarlet and Gray miss the tournament?

Before any of that, what does the NCAA selection committee use in women’s basketball to determine those 37 at-large selections:

List of selection criteria, from the NCAA:

Bad losses
Common opponents
Competitiveness in losses
Early performance versus late performance
Head-to-head
NET ranking
Observable component
Overall record
Regional rankings
Significant wins
Strength of schedule

Of these 11 items, NET is the criterion discussed the most when the season hits the end of February. Daily from December until the end of the season, every Division I team receives a ranking from 1 to 363. NET rankings work on a quad system where the higher the difficulty means the lower quad. So, quad one games are the toughest and receive the most weight, down to quad 4. Here is the breakdown:

Women’s basketball quadrant system, from the NCAA:

Quadrant 1: Home (1-25), Neutral (1-35), Away (1-45)
Quadrant 2: Home (26-55), Neutral (36-65), Away (46-80)
Quadrant 3: Home (56-90), Neutral (66-105), Away (81-130)
Quadrant 4: Home (91+), Neutral (106+), Away (131+)

Through Jan. 4, Ohio State sits at No. 30 with 10 games in quad four, one each in two and three, and a 1-2 record in quad 1 games.

On the surface, it is not impressive. The Buckeyes’ neutral site win over the then Associated Press-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers is the lone quad one victory, but with the expansion of power conferences, all Big Ten teams are insulated from weak nonconference schedules. Sure, the Buckeyes played the Niagara Purple Eagles, who currently sit at No. 362, but the Big Ten is where teams that did not stuff their nonconference schedule make up for lost time.

Last season, Ohio State split its 10 quad one games. This season, if teams stay within their current NET ranking range above, the Buckeyes will have 15 quad-one ranked games. In the 24-25 season, the two teams that made the national championship game, UConn and South Carolina, played eight and 19 quad one games, respectively.

Only three games on the regular season schedule for Ohio State are against teams not in the first quad of teams. Those are against the Penn State Nittany Lions, Indiana Hoosiers, and Wisconsin Badgers — all home games. That means every away game from now until the end of season trip against the Michigan State Spartans on March 1, 2026, carries more weight for Ohio State’s tournament resume.

In the most recent edition of Bracketology on ESPN, Her Hoop Stats, and The IX Basketball, Ohio State is listed as a No. 6 seed. Every team with a No. 1 through No. 4 seed hosts the first two games of the women’s NCAA Tournament, which means the Buckeyes would be on the road.

However, Bracketology is not an accurate science. Especially considering all of the different factors the selection committee uses to rank the 68 teams for March Madness. Any guess on where teams land before the official selection show airs in March is just that — a guess.

Outside of the crystal ball, Ohio State holds its fate in its own hands. Winning is the best way for any team to move up the NET rankings. So far, the only bad loss is against the No. 1 (in NET and AP ranking) UConn Huskies, which was early in the season. The loss against UCLA is a close loss, considering the game was within a single possession in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.

If Ohio State wins or stays close in a couple of losses from now until the end of the regular season, the outlook for the Buckeyes making the tournament and playing host increases.

Over the first four Big Ten games, head coach Kevin McGuff’s side showed that they are a team that deserves an at-large bid. Games against teams Ohio State should beat, like Northwestern, Purdue, and Rutgers, all ended in convincing Buckeye wins, but there are fewer of those types of games in the remaining 15 matchups.

By the end of January, Ohio State’s place in postseason basketball could be solidified or in question. In the next six games, four of them are against teams ranked or receiving votes in the weekly Associated Press poll. Plus, all four are against quad one opponents.

The only way that the Buckeyes miss out is if the metaphorical wheels fall off on the young roster that has shown resiliency halfway through the season. Will that resiliency continue to fuel growt,h or is there a ceiling for the 25-26 edition of Ohio State women’s basketball?

Remaining schedule, with NET ranking:

Wed, Jan 7, 2026 @ Illinois (34)
Sun, Jan 11, 2026 @ Maryland (11)
Wed, Jan 14, 2026 – Penn State (78)
Mon, Jan 19, 2026 vs. TCU (9) (The Coretta Scott King Classic – Newark, New JErsey)
Thu, Jan 22, 2026 vs. Indiana (56)
Sun, Jan 25, 2026 @ Iowa (13)
Thu, Jan 29, 2026 vs. Wisconsin (71)
Sun, Feb 1, 2026 vs. Nebraska (16)
Thu, Feb 5, 2026 @ Washington (31)
Sun, Feb 8, 2026 @ Oregon (26)
Sun, Feb 15, 2026 vs. Maryland (11)
Wed, Feb 18, 2026 @ Minnesota (15)
Sun, Feb 22, 2026 vs. Southern California (22)
Wed, Feb 25, 2026 vs. Michigan (6)
Sun, Mar 1, 2026 @ Michigan State (8)