These observations — where I look at Real Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be found here.
I was asked on a recent Q&A, “if Xabi Alonso were to turn it around and win the Champions League this season, would it be a bigger feat than the 2022 Champions League triumph?”
I had to think about it, and I still don’t have a clear cut answer. I lean towards a hypothetical 2026 Champions League triumph being a bigger achievement than the 2022 one, but only because of how improbable a 180-turnaround from the team seems now, given how gloomy things have been.
But then I remembered: In 2022, I wrote a column in the winter, on Real Madrid still being able to win the Champions League despite how bad they’ve been. The article was generally laughed at and dismissed. That team was not good enough, they said. Impossible — especially after getting played off the park, barely crossing the half-way line in a loss to PSG in Paris of the first of the Champions League round-of-16. Months later, Real Madrid lifted the Champions League trophy.
Then I remembered another thing: I have an annual article, around this time — completely unintentional — talking about the same thing: ‘Real Madrid have been bad, but they generally don’t find themselves until the spring time’. In each case, it’s never well received.
This Real Madrid team has instilled little belief in fans, and even the biggest optimist would find it hard to believe in a turnaround. The regression is real. The promise from the Club World Cup, and early returns this season, have vanished. The press has regressed; the confidence zapped. Thibaut Courtois was taking naps earlier this season — now he’s back to being the team’s best player far too often. Alonso has compromised his original ideas in order to meet the players half way. He has lost himself, and it’s going to be hard to go back to his roots now.
Real Madrid’s history cares little for any of this analysis. They would read these words of pessimism and light them on fire. This club is all about adversity and overcoming it. Nothing has ever come easy. In 2022, up until Real Madrid’s loss in Paris, the team looked dead, nowhere close to the elites. This particular team looks even worse. At least that one had Toni Kroos, Karim Benzema and Luka Modric still at their apex. This current team is largely inexperienced, and even among the veterans — apart from Courtois and Carvajal — there is a lack of leadership.
There is also an important detail that exists this season that didn’t exist in 2022: Xabi Alonso’s job could be over mid-January. The Spanish SuperCopa in Saudi Arabia is a huge litmus test for the Board, and unfortunately for Alonso, Real Madrid have to face two very dangerous teams: A team that is built to beat them (Atletico Madrid), and if they pass that test, they move on to the final to face a team, Barcelona, that is blood-thirsty for revenge.
Real Madrid have not dealt well against teams with high intensity.
You’d be hard-pressed to find the last time the team put in a good performance for the entirety of 90 minutes. There are spurts of individual brilliance and heroics, but little to gloat about in terms of team chemistry and consistency. The team is in survival mode — reacting to things minute-to-minute among chaos. There is no dominance, no imposition of will. The result, overall, haven’t been great — the process is even worse.
The issues earlier on in the season are different than the issues now. In September, the team pressed well, created an abundance of chances, and couldn’t convert those forays to build a sizeable lead heading into the second half when the legs tired and the team regressed into a lower block. The morale was mostly good, and trending north.
Things are more leg-heavy now, players are unhappy with their roles, and perhaps too eager to make use of the limited time they have not knowing when their next appearance might be. There is more pressure on the stars to float above, more pressure on the role players to produce in limited cameos, and more pressure on the coach to win. Two possible outcomes: The pressure cuts diamonds, or gives way to collapse.
There is a path to redemption. Not all is lost. If the glass half-empty look exists, there is also a glass half-full outlook: Real Madrid are hit with injuries to key players: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao. Eduardo Camavinga has barely played due to his health. Carvajal may return as early as the Super Cup (but that in itself is a problem if he’s rushed back). If the board can be patient enough for important defensive figures to return to stabilize the backline and bring some leadership, they can buy time for a possible spring rejuvenation.
Also, what if Real Madrid does win the Spanish SuperCup? How much momentum will that give them? Enough to launch them into orbit and escape the noise? Is such a thing improbable? Have we not learned enough lessons doubting Real Madrid by now over the past 50 years? Is that naive?
They still might be the best team in Spain when all is said and done. They still have the league’s best players. Tactically and collectively, they are still off pace from the elite: Arsenal, Bayern Munich, PSG — and possibly others. In the last two months, they’re dropped off even below the B-tier teams.
But it’s true the surrounding pieces around the young, inexperienced nucleus probably doesn’t have what it takes. Despite Mbappe’s devastating offensive form, Bellingham at his best, Gonzalo levitating against Real Betis, and Rodrygo rising, there is little confidence in the team’s two-way balance. Some of the midfield muscle has gotten stabilizing Eduardo Camavinga, rather than Arda Güler, supporting Jude Bellingham in midfield, but Camavinga also needs to stay fit — his health could swing the balance in a positive way. If both Güler and Camavinga are fit, I would wager Alonso bets on Camavinga for balance purposes in most games.
But even banking on good health is naive. When one key player returns, another key player is sidelined. Kylian Mbappe’s most recent injury is horrible news given how much the team relies on his pace in transition as well as his finishing and playmaking.
It’s an abysmally bad season when it comes to goal-scoring, even with Mbappe. Before the Real Betis game it was asked: how bad can it get without him? Before the win over the weekend, the team had only scored 36 goals from an xG of 45.2. It’s a painful number when you compare it to Barcelona’s up until the new year: 51 goals scored from an xG of 47.65. Only one team, Rayo Vallecano, has underperformed their xG even worse. In the Champions League, the numbers are a bit better: 13 goals from an xG of 13. Alonso will hope the league numbers will normalize.
The defensive numbers aren’t more encouraging. Despite conceding just 16 goals before Christmas, they conceded an xGA of 22.21. It was not good defense that had shut opponents out — it was Thibaut Courtois.
A lot of that goes back to issues from seasons’ prior: the first line of defense has been catastrophic. Despite the pressing trending in a positive direction earlier this season (games against Marseille and Barcelona at home come to mind), it’s got dialled back to an unrecognizable level.
It’s hard to put into words what’s happenning here:
That’s Rodrygo doing everything he physically can. These are fundamentals: A press requires everyone to pull their weight. If there isn’t 100% buy in, you can’t hold a high line:
More problems arise when the team is facing high pressure. The absences of Trent, Militao, and Carvajal haven’t helped, but the problems also run deeper. Players often make the wrong off-ball runs, show in the wrong areas, make the wrong pass, or delay the pass when quicker build-up is needed:
Those build-up issues need to be sorted. By now, in an ideal world, Xabi Alonso’s blueprint would’ve been well-marinated into a machine that baits presses and exploits the space in behind, with plenty of attacking weapons to help Real Madrid punish teams who dare to push bodies forward.
The build-up will become even more strenuous on Thursday against Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone’s men are masters at hoodwinking you into thinking a passing lane is open. They congest the strong side, invite a switch, and rotate so quickly defensively, you’ll lose the outlet before it even appears.
And that’s where Real Madrid will be tested perhaps the most all month, and the Real Betis honeymoon could soon end. There is perhaps no greater thorn in Real Madrid’s side than Atleti — a team whose hearts Real Madrid have shattered on the biggest stage over and over again, but a team that can close space and irritate like no other.
But it’s also an opportunity to carry the momentum from the Betis game, ride the Gonzalo Garcia heatwave, and carry that energy forward to the Super Cup Final and beyond.
Leaning into Gonzalo Garcia
Real Madrid lose a lot without Mbappe, who is probably the best player in the world. There is no discussion about whether or not Mbappe helps the team. However, Real Madrid do gain two things with Gonzalo Garcia starting in lieu of the injured French Superstar: A better first line of defense, and a target in the box.
Real Madrid will need both those things. Atletico Madrid would rather not have their center-backs — of late David Hancko and Marc Pubill — occupied. Gonzalo commands gravity and is an expert off-ball mover in the box. Real Madrid can leverage that skill into creating space for others — Rodrygo making diagonal runs in the box, Jude Bellingham crashing it, Vinicius Jr cutting in.
Real Madrid can stifle Atletico’s build-up, spearheaded by Gonzalo’s effort:
Real Madrid may be better off with only one of Vinicius or Mbappe on the field; pairing one of them with a more natural link-up striker (Gonzalo) that they can play off of. The sample size of Gonzalo plus one of them (mostly Vinicius due to Mbappe’s injuries in the Club World Cup and now), is small, but mostly effective. The sample size with Vinicus and Mbappe together is much larger, but not clicking as it should be. We have virtually zero sample size of Gonzalo and Mbappe together, but it would be fascinating to see a theoretical partnership with them to see what they could cook. Mbappe likes to hang back and receive cut-backs; Gonzalo likes to shake off his marker and attack the six-yard box — that would create space for Mbappe and pull defenders around. That kind of offense doesn’t exist if Gonzalo isn’t on the field.
It is true that Real Madrid have struggles outside their front line. The defense has looked frail dancing on the high line, and the midfield has gotten overrun more than once. But the problems do, in a lot of ways, start up top — the midfield will always be outnumbered by opponents if the first line of defense is broken. That’s where you can make the case for more Gonzalo and more Rodrygo to balance the team. Valverde’s eventual return to midfield with Carvajal and Trent coming back should help Bellingham, Tchouameni, and Camavinga as well.
But Alonso can address those questions in the Super Cup Final (if Real Madrid qualify) and beyond. The attack and line-up against Atletico picks itself: copy and pasted from the win over Betis. There is one slight question mark: Dean Huijsen, who is back with the team. But logic suggests Huijsen would not be ready to start a game of this magnitude as his first game back, especially after he struggled with Atletico’s high press in the 5 – 2 debacle earlier this season.
“I think every match has to be analysed, but all defeats, if anything, can teach us more positive lessons,” Alonso said in Wednesday’s pre-game press conference. “There are things we don’t want to repeat from that match, things that we obviously took away from it, but I’m very convinced that it’s going to be different. We mustn’t forget the things that didn’t work well either.”
Atletico are struggling since that 5 – 2 Derby — but they were struggling in the build-up to that game as well. They had gone winless against Espanyol, Elche, Alaves, Liverpool, and Mallorca. Antoine Griezmann hadn’t scored a goal for 22 consecutive matches. But then Griezmann scored against Real Madrid, Atletico pounded Real Madrid on set-pieces and crosses, and pressed them relentlessly.
This time it’s Julian Alvarez’s turn to go through a drought (he’s scored just one goal since that aforementioned Derby), and Atletico are coming off a poor showing against Real Sociedad. Pablo Barrios, their most important midfielder this season, is injured. Atletico are also defanged away from home (they’ve earned just 13 points out of a possible 30 this season away from the Metropolitano).
Still — you know that all goes out the window on Thursday. Atletico will be blood-hungry, as they always are against Real Madrid — and if Real Madrid don’t exceed that intensity, it’s going to be tough to win a must-win Derby.
