In last week’s broadcast, Chris Myers, the commentator voted most likely to sound like an exaggerated cartoon character, said something along the lines of “the team with the #1 defense at the end of the season
has never failed to make the playoffs…” /paraphrase
While this may/may not be true, it’s hard to recall a team with such polar opposites when it comes to defense and offense.
- Houston’s defense: #1 in Yards/Game with 258.1
- Houston’s offense: 19th in Yards/Game with 329.6
- Houston’s defense: #1 in Points/Game with 16.3
- Houston’s offense: 24th in Points/Game with 22.0
Per ESPN, the NFL average points scored per game is 23.3, while the average surrendered is 22.9,
For context, the Tennessee Titans have the 24th worst defense in the league, yet Nick Caley failed to come anywhere near the league scoring average against them last weekend.
Blaming the performance on personnel is a copout. Davis Mills, Woody Marks and the rest don’t consistently choose to run A gap headers inside the 2-yard line week in and week out.
In fact, it’s more likely this roster wins in spite of the offensive coordinator, not because of him.
Now, trying to install a new offense right now would effectively give up on the season. And, there’s still a chance this historically good defense hasn’t been wasted. So, firing Caley right now might not make sense.
But maybe, just maybe, there’s a better play caller in the building? Or, if not, maybe they can find one who is familiar with the current offensive model and hire that person to call plays going forward? I mean, they’ve shown zero trouble with finding an ex-Patriot and/or Patriot-adjacent coach in the past.
Chances are there’s already someone on the staff who can play call circles around Caley. Someone who should have been given a shot at it after the Bye Week. Or, should be given one after this game against the Buffalo Bills, since the Houston Texans will have an extended 10-day break before facing the division-leading Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, 11/30.
Unfortunately, the Texans have a history of hanging onto bad things too long to the detriment of great things >cough< Jack O’B-Easterby-Brien >cough<.
Rolling into this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup, the visiting Bills bring their not too shabby brand of football to town.
- Buffalo’s defense: #12 in Yards/Game with 322.7
- Buffalo’s offense: #2 in Yards/Game with 387.4
- Buffalo’s defense: #12 in Points/Game with 22.9
- Buffalo’s offense: #4 in Points/Game with 29.2
What about the x-factor you say? The 1 decider that seems to predict playoff success even more than defensive ranking? The turnover differential.
- Houston’s turnover differential: #6 with +7
- Buffalo’s turnover differential: #13 with +1
Also:
Nick Caley will be the deciding factor in this game.
Doesn’t matter that C.J. Stroud is still out due to concussion. Doesn’t matter that Joe Mixon seems to have vanished into the Bermuda Triangle. Doesn’t matter how good Josh Allen may or may not play. And it doesn’t matter how hard the NFL’s #1 defense sticks it to the Bills. If Caley can’t figure out how to call plays at the NFL level, the 7-3 Bills will have an 8-3 record when they leave town.
Buffalo Bills Week 11 Stats
- QB JOSH ALLEN had 317 pass yards, 3 pass TDs, 40 rush yards & 3 rush TDs in Week 11, only player in NFL history with 300+ pass yards, 3 pass TDs & 3 rush TDs in a single game. Has 75 career reg.-season rush TDs, tied with Cam Newton for most by QB in NFL history. Has 213 reg.-season pass TDs, tied with HOFer Brett Favre for 5th-most by player in 1st 8 seasons in NFL history. Ranks 3rd with 10 rush TDs this season.
- RB JAMES COOK had 114 scrimmage yards (66 rec., 48 rush) & rec. TD in Week 11. Ranks 5th among RBs with 1,158 scrimmage yards. Has 100+ scrimmage yards in 3 of his past 4 games. Had 99 scrimmage yards (82 rush, 17 rec.) & rush TD in last meeting.
- RB TY JOHNSON had 61 rec. yards, including 52-yard TD, in Week 11. Has scrimmage TD in 2 of his past 3 games.
- WR KHALIL SHAKIR has 5+ catches in 3 of his past 4 games. Aims for 3rd in row with 6+ catches on road.
- WR TYRELL SHAVERS had team & career-high 4 catches for 90 yards & TD in Week 11.
- DT DAQUAN JONES had 4 tackles, sack & FF in Week 11. Had 6 tackles & TFL in last meeting.
- LB TERREL BERNARD co-led team with 11 tackles, 2 TFL & 2 PD in Week 11. Is 1 of 3 players in 2025 (Daiyan Henley & Andru Phillips) to record 10+ tackles, 2 TFL & 2 PD in single game. Aims for 4th in row with 5+ tackles & 3rd in row with TFL. Had 5 tackles & INT in last meeting.
- S COLE BISHOP had 6 tackles & INT in Week 11. Aims for 3rd in row with INT. Aims for 4th in row with 6+ tackles & PD.
- S JORDAN POYER co-led team with 11 tackles & PD in Week 11. Ranks 2nd among DBs since entering the league in 2013 with 9 games of 10+ tackles & PD. Aims for 5th in row with 5+ tackles.
Houston Texans Week 11 Stats
- QB DAVIS MILLS had 274 pass yards & TD in Week 11. Ranks 5th in NFL over last two weeks with 566 pass yards. Aims for 3rd in row with 250+ pass yards & TD. Aims for 4th in row with 250+ pass yards as a starter.
- RB WOODY MARKS had 44 rush yards in Week 11. Aims for 3rd in row with 50+ scrimmage yards. Has 80+ scrimmage yards in 3 of his past 4 home games. Has 3 rush TDs at home this season.
- WR NICO COLLINS led team with 9 catches for 92 yards & TD in Week 11. Aims for 4th in row with 7+ catches & 75 yards. Had 2 catches for 78 yards & TD in last meeting.
- WR JAYDEN HIGGINS had 4 catches for 55 yards in Week 11. Aims for 3rd in row with 4+ catches & 40 yards.
- TE DALTON SCHULTZ had 6 catches for 51 yards in Week 11. Tied-2nd among
- TEs in 2025 with 7 games of 5+ catches. Aims for 4th in row with 6+ catches & 50 yards.
- DE WILL ANDERSON JR. had 4 tackles, 2 TFL, sack, FF & FR in Week 11. Is 1 of 3 in 2025 (Nick Bosa & T.J. Watt) to record 4+ tackles, 2 TFL, sack, FF & FR in single game. Tied-4th in AFC with 8 sacks in 2025.
- DE DANIELLE HUNTER had 4 tackles, 1.5 sacks & TFL in Week 11. Since entering league in 2015, ranks 3rd with 108.5 sacks & ranks tied-3rd with 27 games with 1.5+ sacks. Aims for 3rd in row with 1.5+ sacks & TFL. Ranks tied-4th in 2025 with 9 sacks.
- LB AZEEZ AL-SHAAIR had 6 tackles last week. Aims for 4th in row with 6+ tackles. Has PD in 4 of his past 5 home games.
- CB KAMARI LASSITER had PD in Week 11 & has PD in 7 consecutive games, the longest active streak in NFL.
- CB DEREK STINGLEY had 4 tackles & PD in Week 11. Has PD in 8 of his past games in 2025. Aims for his 6th in row with PD
Bills vs Texans Prediction:
Now, all the above might sound awfully gloom & doomey, but this is the NFL after all and stats tell a story, but rarely predict one. Teams defy logic every weekend, losing when they shouldn’t, winning when they have no “right” doing so. Rando players become highlight reels and crazy things happen.
Like this:
Will the NRG curse continue to confound Allen and company? Will the Texans defense build momentum like a late summer thunderstorm rolling in off the Gulf? Will Will (Anderson Jr) and Danielle Hunter harass and manhandle Allen into multiple mistakes? The current over/under is 43.5, but in a game likely dictated by Demeco Ryan’s defense in the house J.J. Watt built, don’t count on that many points.
Buffalo Bills – 13
Houston Texans – 19
With the return of Houston’s leading scorer, kicker Kaimi Fairbairn, it’s time to hail the #ALLFIELDGOALOFFENSE
