Last season at this time we thought things were going badly. They were, really, Xavier only had two Q2 wins, had been pummeled by Michigan and blown a great chance at TCU. Thankfully, the Big East slate was ahead. It was replete with chances to add big wins, stack Q1 and Q2 games, and play their way in. That happened. Xavier beat Texas, then Texas stole our coach. So, here we are.
This season Xavier is in a less envious position. No good wins, no resume bad losses but a hammering by Santa Clara that
is torpedoing the computer numbers, and the non-con ending with Q4 Missouri State at home. UC can usually be counted on to be a decent win, but they can’t even manage that this season. (Wes Miller is excited about how good they’ll be, though.) Looking ahead, the Big East looms. Surely by the time the calendar turns in to the bleak midwinter, there will be chances to grab good wins.
You’d think. Something has happened to the Big East this season, though. Namely, it isn’t very good (comparatively). At this same time last season, the average Big East team had a NET ranking of 73. That’s good for a Q2 at home and Q1 on the road. This year, the average ranking is 83. That drops both of those an entire quadrant. Last season X went to UConn to play a Q1 to start Big East play, this year they host a highly rated Creighton team that has dropped to a Q3.
The bad news doesn’t end there. After all, that’s just one data point in a sea of them. Here’s a more comprehensive picture: last year the Musketeers played a total of six games outside of the top two quadrants once conference play started. That created a simple path to follow. All you do is avoid tripping up in those games, snag a couple of the other ones, and you’re in. This season Xavier will hit six “bad” games before Valentine’s Day. Two of those conference games will be Q4 (as of this writing) where there were none last season. There is one further trap game on the schedule after that. That, of course, means there are fewer good wins available. The Q1 chances are down and some Q2 have dropped as well.
So what happened? Quite simply, the Big East as a whole isn’t winning big games. Creighton was a media darling at the start of the season. They’ve lost all four of their big games, including the rivalry game to Nebraska. None of those losses are bad, but they’ve done nothing resume worthy. Marquette has immolated. They haven’t beaten a team better than Valpo at 198th and lost to both Maryland and Dayton. Again, no good wins. Providence has made no advances this season. They have four losses, again none of them bad, but they’ve done nothing that would make a committee member take note.
The middle of the conference is… ok. Butler beat Virginia, which is a nice win. Seton Hall has beaten NC State and Kansas St. NCST may stand up, but Kansas St isn’t a huge one. Georgetown still exists and DePaul is awful. Villanova scheduled two good games and lost them by an aggregate of 33 points. UConn and St. John’s are, thankfully, still doing their jobs.
The good news is that you can look at what Xavier has done so far and still hope. It’s December. Why not be hopeful? Your tree is up, snow is on the ground (at least it is here), and there’s reason for cheer. Xavier didn’t do a ton in the non-con, but they could still conceivably turn things around.
But with Christmas comes the promise of February. The hope fades by then into the miasma of days where it feels like there are two hours of daylight while a 25 mile per hour wind scours snow that feel three weeks ago and long since stopped looking like anything more aesthetically pleasing then spilled and melted chocolate ice cream mixed with gravel. The reasons for hope fade then. A not very good Xavier team will need to avoid more pitfalls than they are used to and take the chances they have. There is not much margin at all with an unimpressive non-conference resume and a Big East that has dipped a bit.
Xavier needs to hit Valentine’s at the very worst 6-8 in the Big East. That’s assuming that they don’t hit any sort of pitfalls but lose their eight Q1/2 games to that point. That would leave six games to play. Two of those would be Q1 (Butler and Villanova away), three would be Q2 and at home, and there would be a Q3 at home against Georgetown. Would that be ideal? No, but it would leave them in with a chance. Steal a game early and it’s all the better, but those nine are vital not to lose. For once, the Big East may cause some problems.
