It might be too early to consider a long-term contract for Cubs closer Daniel Palencia — and yes, I’m calling him “closer” because I have no doubt he’ll be back in that role in 2026.
Palencia had a shoulder
issue during the 2025 season, and might have come back sooner than most would have wanted. He did record outs after he returned, including in the postseason, but his velocity seemed down a tick and he wasn’t striking out guys the way he did before the “issue.”
So maybe your answer is “don’t give him any sort of extension.” And that might indeed be the correct answer.
What I’m going to propose here assumes that Palencia is 100 percent healthy to start the 2026 season and is set to be the team’s closer.
The Cubs have five more years of team control for Palencia, so maybe you’re thinking he doesn’t need a contract extension and the team should simply go through all his arb years. The five years of control include, it appears, a fourth arbitration year, which is available to certain players under certain conditions (and I am not certain what those are for Palencia).
Even though just going through the arb years is probably the right thing for Palencia, just for the heck of it, let’s look at what a long-term deal might look like for him.
Palencia turns 26 in February, so a five-year deal would take him through his age-30 season.
Five years, $55 million, structured this way:
2026: $2 million
2027: $8 million
2028: $12 million
2029: $15 million
2030: $18 million or $2 million buyout
So that’s $39 million over the five years if the buyout is done.
Who says no?
