Center field is one of those defensive positions where the Kansas City Royals have been blessed to have a long history of excellent players.
Between 1970 and 1990, Amos Otis and Willie Wilson played a combined 24,632.2 innings in center—nearly 90% of all center field innings across that two-decade span. From 1995 to 2004, Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon combined to play 9,823 innings in center field—nearly 70% of all center field innings in that span. And from 2011 through 2017, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod
Dyson combined to play 7,728 innings—or just above 75% of all available center field innings. In fact, those six players have played 52% of all regular season center field innings in the entire history of the franchise.
And right below some of those titans has been Kyle Isbel, whose 3,672.1 innings in center field ranks seventh-most in Royals history. In his six years with the team, Isbel has been a reliably great defender and has never posted a Wins Above Replacement figure below 0.5, per Fangraphs’ version of the stat.
But though Isbel has been a solid role player, he’s not a permanent option. Setting aside potential collective bargaining agreement shenanigans, Isbel is set to become a free agent.
It’s true that Isbel’s likely $4 million or so salary next year, his final year of arbitration, won’t break the bank. However, at that price, you have to start looking at Isbel’s production with a little more scrutiny. Isbel’s defense is his calling card, but he doesn’t have a lot of other tools. As a baserunner, he’s only good for eight or so stolen bases a year. As a hitter, he doesn’t hit for average, walk much, or crush extra base hits. And he’s also never been a reliably healthy player, either; he’s averaged 109 games per year over the past five seasons, and he’s never played more than 136.
Now, some of that lack of playing time is due to his pretty extreme splits. Against right-handed pitching in his career, he’s hit .243/.290/.383—not great, but serviceable with his defense. Against left-handed pitching, though, he’s hit a rather abysmal .213/.274/.280—a line that you can’t really have in the lineup at all. And so, even when he is healthy, Isbel rides the pine when a lefty starter is on the bump.
All of this means that Isbel is not a smart free agent re-sign option for Kansas City. Somebody will sign him to be what he really is: a platoon- and defense-first fourth outfielder, a very useful bench option. But for Kansas City to re-up on him as the starting center fielder? That’s a risk.
The real question, then, is who Isbel’s successor, or successors, might be. I’ve discussed Tyler Tolbert before, who might be a late bloomer and could be a platoon option in center field. But frankly, the Royals’ best option to fill in for Isbel is probably Carson Roccaforte. Roccaforte won the organization’s Frank White Defensive Player of the Year award last year for his work in center field, his second consecutive season winning the award.
There’s also the fact that Roccaforte has grown into some rather impressive power. After hitting 18 home runs last year, he’s hit 32 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this year.
But Roccaforte does come with some downside—namely, that he strikes out 30% of the time, a figure that could rise in the big leagues.
The other option in Triple-A is the forgotten one: Gavin Cross, the onetime top-10 draft pick who has hit .314/.360/.579 since mid-May in Omaha. Could Cross run in the Royals extensive centerfield grass as a guy who has played mostly corner outfield as a pro? Maybe—but then again, the Royals still have Isbel next year, and in 2030 they’d have their new and ostensibly smaller stadium.
What’s particularly interesting here is that the looming CBA lockout and the Royals’ recent winning streak have thrown a wrench into what could be a very interesting trial period for one of Roccaforte or Cross in September. Of course, the Royals also have another option: getting an outfielder in free agency. But it seems more likely that what money exists should be spent on pitching and maybe a corner outfield bat. And who knows; maybe Isbel will get one last hurrah next year as the starting center fielder. David DeJesus ranks sixth with 4,276.2 career center field innings for the Royals. That number is in range for Isbel to surpass.
