Bears expected to start inexperienced QB – Can Jets take advantage?

As far as I am aware, as of the time of writing this article, the Chicago Bears had made no official announcement regarding who will start for them at quarterback in place of the injured Caleb Williams. Nonetheless, rumors inevitably leak out, and the word out of Chicago is that 26 year old Tyson Bagent will start the game at quarterback for the Bears.

Is this a mistake by Chicago? Last week Bagent was unavailable due to his own injury issues, and 38 year old Case Keenum came off the bench for his first

NFL start in almost three years. It went swimmingly. Keenum turned back the clock as he completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers. He posted a passer rating of 111 on the way to a dominant 27 – 7 Bears win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Keenum kept the offense moving with an outstanding mix of short passes as he got the ball out quickly and decisively. His reward for this performance is a place on the bench against the Jets.

Tyson Bagent will take the reins today for the Bears. Like Keenum prior to last week, Bagent hasn’t started an NFL game since 2023. That was Bagent’s rookie year. As an undrafted free agent that year out of tiny Shepherd University, Bagent was ill-prepared to be thrust into a starting role so soon, and it showed. In four starts in 2023 Tyson Bagent threw for just 776 yards, an average of just 194 per game. He threw just three touchdown passes while racking up six interceptions in 2023, an unfortunate 1:2 ratio. Bagent had a very bad 6.0 yards per pass attempt and 71 passer rating. It was about what you’d expect for the inexperienced passer.

Bagent hasn’t started a game in the NFL since his rookie year. He has thrown just 15 NFL passes since then. Has he significantly developed in the interim? Is he much better prepared to face NFL defenses with a couple of years under his belt? Who knows? Bagent has had some success in preseason games, but preseason action is no substitute for the real thing.

Case Keenum has always been the NFL equivalent of what they call a 4A player in baseball. Good enough in a backup role, not good enough as a long term starter. Keenum’s only really good year as a starter came back in 2017, when he led the Minnesota Vikings to an 11-3 record in 14 starts. Keenum posted a 98 passer rating that year, with a 22:7 touchdown to interception ratio. Good stuff, but he was never able to repeat that magical run. Keenum started 16 games for the Denver Broncos the following year, but he led the team to just a 6-10 record with an 82 passer rating. In the ensuing 7+ years Keenum has made a total of just 13 NFL starts as he has settled into the steady veteran backup role.

Keenum is unlikely to put together a bunch of repeat performances following his great showing against the Eagles last week. Nonetheless he is a veteran with a ton of NFL experience. He may not have outstanding physical traits, but he knows how to play the game. With a career passer rating of 85 and an 81:51 career touchdown to interception ratio, Keenum is capable of giving a team competent if uninspiring play under center.

As for Bagent, who knows what he’s capable of? The last we saw of him in extended NFL play Bagent was a liability on the field. Is that still the case? There’s no way to be sure, but we’re about to find out. Bears head coach Ben Johnson is rightly credited with being an outstanding offensive mind, but he isn’t infallible. The Bears may have made a mistake choosing Bagent over Keenum this week. If so, the Jets need to take advantage of the opportunity. Maybe Aaron Glenn and company can confuse the inexperienced Bagent in a way that would be unlikely to succeed against the grizzled veteran Keenum. A possibly unready Bagent just might give the Jets the advantage in this game. Maybe even give the Jets an interception or two for the first time in ages. Let’s see what the Jets defense can cook up against the Bears’ young signal caller.