For those of you who believe in fate, there was never a doubt the Carolina Panthers would be sitting where they are right now – that is, hosting a home playoff game for the first time in forever. After
all, who can argue with such foolproof analytics based off of Jennifer Lopez’s marital status, the NFL schedule makers and THE Ohio State University?
For the rest of us, the fact that the Panthers get one more chance to play with house money on Wildcard Weekend is a shocking, but entirely welcome, opportunity. Was it the traditional route to the playoffs? No, but who cares about that anyway!
While finally getting to throw up some “NFC South Division Champions” hats, t-shirts and graphics on social media is fun, it also means the Panthers actually have to play another football game. The boys in process blue will be suiting up against a familiar, yet formidable, opponent – the Los Angeles Rams. A team that they shocked the world and beat in their first match up, but will lightning strike twice to allow for another Panthers victory this weekend?
Let’s take a look at what’s changed since their Week 13 match-up to see if the Panthers still have what it takes to come out on top.
Panthers Run Game
Against the Rams, the Panthers rushing attack may not have been exceptional, but it was effective. 40 combined carries for 164 yards set the tone of the game and gave the Panthers the ability to hold the ball for over 35 minutes of time of possession and make it the fastest NFL game played in the last decade.
In the Panthers 4 games since, they have amassed an average of 86.5 yards on 22.75 attempts per game. The Panthers win versus the Rams is also the last time they’ve won the time of possession battle. Since then, they have only held the ball on average 25 minutes and 29 seconds per game.
Should the Panthers want to win against the Rams again, they’ll likely need to rely on a similar formula as their first clash. Should the trend of the Panthers last 4 games continue and the Rams get 35 minutes of time of possession and stifle the Panthers running backs to less than 3.8 yards a carry, it may be too much for the underdog to overcome.
Matthew Stafford’s Excellence
One of the main storylines entering the first matchup against the Ram’s was Stafford’s record breaking streak of 27 touchdowns without an interception. A streak that would become 28 before ultimately ending after a Derrick Brown tip landed in Nick Scott’s hands. Since then, Stafford has thrown 4 interceptions in 5 games, 3 of which were against the Falcons in the Rams only loss since.
The Panthers held Stafford to 243 yards, his lowest total over the last 7 games of the season. Stafford has averaged 326.8 yards, 2.8 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game since. The Panthers will once again need their secondary to ball out should they want to disrupt Sean McVay’s juggernaut offense. Thankfully, Mike Jackson has continued playing extremely well to close the season (PFF’s 13th ranked corner in coverage since Week 14) and Jaycee Horn always has the potential to take over a game.
3rd Down Efficiency
What’s going to make or break this match-up, is how efficient the Panthers are on 3rd down. While in the first match-up, the Panthers’ big plays on 4th down were what won the game, it’s highly unlikely the Rams will allow that to happen again. Therefore, being able to control the ball by converting 3rd downs and not letting the Rams convert their own will likely decide the football game.
In their first match-up, the Panthers were 7-15 on 3rd down. In the Panthers last two games versus the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Panthers were 1-11 and 1-8, respectively. Over each team’s last 3 outings, the Rams have converted 44.9% (8th in the NFL) compared to the Panthers measly 25.81% (31st in the NFL) conversion rate.
The Panthers defense over the last 3 games have allowed a conversion rate of 55.55%. To put that into perspective, the San Francisco 49ers lead the league in 3rd down conversions on offense, converting 49.77% of the time. Not ideal.
Make no mistake, the Panthers have their work cut out for them if they want to sniff their Super Bowl destiny pre-ordained by Jennifer Lopez’s love life. A 10.5 point underdog, at home, against a team that’s recently won the Super Bowl and had a fighting shot at the number 1 seed. The odds are stacked against them. But, hey, how else would you expect a Cinderella story to start?
