NFL Week 7 score prediction: Seahawks vs. Chiefs

The Seattle Seahawks have been very up and down. Many fans had hoped Zach Charbonnet would be back this week, and with him being a full participant in practices, there was hope. Then, he was stated to be out. However, Anthony Bradford is slotted to return, so, no more of the fan frustrating rotation

Football Zone

SEE ALL

Giants Wire

New York Giants vs. Houston Texans: Behind Enemy Lines

USA Today

Maliek Collins agrees to terms on contract extension

Cowboys Wire

3 keys to Cowboys ending losing streak include stop abandoning the run

What is the story about?

The Seattle Seahawks have been very up and down. Many fans had hoped Zach Charbonnet would be back this week, and with him being a full participant in practices, there was hope. Then, he was stated to be out. However, Anthony Bradford is slotted to return, so, no more of the fan frustrating rotation at right puard. This matchup will prove to be a difficult one. The former AFC West rival Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town with one of the top offenses in the league and a Steve Spagnuolo coordinated

defense. Can the Seahawks hold up, wearing their throwback uniforms, in Seattle in front of the 12’s, with one of the best defenses in the league? Let’s find out.

Seahawks advanced stat rankings

The Seahawks per FTN are the tenth ranked team per Total DVOA, with the 24th ranked offense per DVOA, the second ranked defense per DVOA, and the 14th ranked special teams per DVOA.

Per Sumer Sports, the Seahawks have the first ranked defense per total EPA and second in EPA per play, and have the 28th ranked offense per Total EPA and 25th in EPA per play.

The Seahawks have the seventh best point differential in the league with a +26 and a margin of victory of 4.3. They are currently averaging 24.7 points per game while allowing opponents to score 20.3 per game.

Chiefs advanced stat rankings

The Chiefs per FTN are the second ranked team per Total DVOA, with the third ranked offense per DVOA, 12th ranked defense per DVOA, and 26th ranked special teams per DVOA.

Per Sumer Sports, the Chiefs have the third ranked defense in total EPA and EPA per play. They also have the fifth ranked offense in total EPA, and fourth ranked offense in EPA per play.

The Chiefs have the second best point differential in the league with a +57 and a margin of victory of 11.4. They are currently averaging 28 points per game and allowing opponents to score 16.6 points per game.

Calculating the Score

SEA Points For 24.7 + KC Opponents 16.6 = 41.3/2= 20.65, round up to 21

KC Points For 28 +SEA Opponents 20.3= 48.3/2= 24.15. rounded to 24

First Score Prediction: 24-21, Chiefs Victory

Chiefs have an average margin of victory of 11.4 points, so 21-8=13

Second Score Prediction: 24-13, Chiefs Victory

Now, lets look at the top players for each team, the average scoring for each team per game, and see what we can parse from that.

For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes is averaging two touchdowns per game. That is 12 points right there.

They have seven rushing touchdowns, six from Kenneth Walker, one from Patrick Mahomes, so we can expect at least one rushing touchdown, making the score up to 18 points.

For those two passing touchdowns, Travis Kelce and Walker each have two receiving touchdowns a piece, so those are likely targets.

Harrison Butker is 76.6% on field goals, making 10 out of 13 attempts, and 93.3% on extra points, making 14 of 15. That means he is likely making the extra points, bringing the score up to 21, and is averaging two field goals per game, bringing the potential score to 27 for the Chiefs

For the Seahawks, Sam Darnold is averaging about two touchdowns a game, starting the Seahawks with 12 points.

The Seahawks are averaging one rushing touchdown a game, likely coming from Emanuel Wilson, bringing the score up to 18.

For those two receiving touchdowns, of the 11 receiving touchdowns this season, seven were caught by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so it is highly likely he catches both.

Jason Myers has made 12 of 13 field goals this season, which is a 92.3% accuracy rate. He has also made 14 of 15 extra points for a 93.3% accuracy rate. He is averaging two field goals a game and is likely to make each extra point. Three extra points brings the total to 21, and two field goals adds six points, bringing the total to 27.

Third Score Prediction: 27-27, Tie

First predicted tie. How to break this tie? Lets look at the analytics.

The Seahawks lead in Defensive DVOA, Special Teams DVOA, and Defensive EPA and Defensive EPA per Play.

The Chiefs lead in Total DVOA, Offensive DVOA, Offensive EPA and Offensive EPA per play.

They tie four to four in those rankings. However, one thing to note is the disparity in Special Teams performance. The Seahawks have the 14th ranked Special Teams compared to the Chiefs 28th. Per Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks have the 6th best Kick & Punt Return unit compared to the Chiefs 21st. Special Teams may be the factor that changes it.

Earlier I stated Butker was 76.6% on for field goals. If he converts one instead of two, and the Seahawks are able to get into better field position by forcing return fumbles like they have in recent games, that could be the difference. Subtracting one field goal from the Chiefs 27 makes their final score 24.

Fourth Score Prediction: 27-24, Seahawks

What do you think the final score will be? Who will win this game? Will home field advantage help? Can the Seahawks finally get over their run game woes with Bradford’s return? Has the mini bye week helped the fumbling issues? Leave your thoughts in the comments, and as always, Go Hawks!