When | 1:00 p.m. CT
Where | Mizzou Arena; Columbia, Mo.
TV | ESPN2
Radio | Tiger Radio Network
Twitter | @MizzouHoops
KenPom prediction | Mizzou -4
ESPN win probability | 64.2% chance
The Starters
Mizzou
G: Anthony Robinson II (JR,
9.9 PPG)
G: Jayden Stone (GR, 15.0 PPG)
F: Jacob Crews (GR, 11.6 PPG)
F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 17.3 PPG)
C: Shawn Phillips Jr. (SR, 7.8 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Trent Pierce (JR, 10.0 PPG)
Oklahoma
G: Nigel Pack (R-SR, 15.2 PPG)
G: Xzayvier Brown (JR, 16.3 PPG)
F: Derrion Reid (SO, 11.7 PPG)
F: Tae Davis (SR, 13.2 PPG)
F: Mohamed Wague (SR, 7.0 PPG)
Notable Sixth Man: Jadon Jones (R-SR, 5.9 PPG)
Note: these starting lineups are projected.
Get to know Oklahoma: a team quickly sliding away from the tournament conversation
Oklahoma ranked as high as 10th in the nation last season following an undefeated run through non-conference play, but the historically strong SEC quickly broke the Sooners down. OU went just 6-12 in conference play despite having eventual top-10 NBA Draft pick Jeremiah Fears on its roster and dropped its first round NCAA Tournament matchup to UConn, ending a once-promising season on a sour note.
The short March Madness appearance was the first of Porter Moser’s now five-year tenure in Norman, a disappointing outcome for a program that hired him when he was one of the most sought-after coaches in America following two Sweet Sixteen berths at Loyola Chicago. But Oklahoma’s tournament berth last season cooled Moser’s hot seat… if only for a little bit.
The Sooners returned just one player who made a start on that team, Mohamed Wague, and two players who averaged over 10 minutes per game.
Forced to work with a practically clean slate, Moser rebuilt his roster with four key transfers that have started every game this season for OU and rank first through fourth on the team in minutes. Oklahoma paired up super senior Nigel Pack, known for his key role on Miami during its Final Four run back in 2023, with All-Atlantic 10 guard Xzayvier Brown in the back court. Double-digit scorer Tae Davis from Notre Dame and former McDonald’s All-American Derrion Reid from Alabama were brought in to team up with the returning Wague and form the team’s trio of starting forwards.
The Sooners may have a dramatically different roster compared to last season’s tournament team, but the results over their first five games of SEC were the exact same: 1-4. And although OU recorded some high-major wins during its non-conference matchups against Marquette, Oklahoma State and Wake Forest, double-digit losses to Arizona State and Gonzaga have the team needing to overperform its projected 12th-place finish in the SEC to get into the postseason conversation.
That’s a conversation getting further and further away with each game. Oklahoma kicked off conference play with an 86-70 win over Ole Miss, but Moser’s squad has suffered double-digit losses to Mississippi State and Florida since then, plus a two-point heartbreaker to Alabama after holding an 11-point lead at halftime.
The Sooners’ latest loss, an 85-76 defeat at South Carolina, dropped them to 11-8 on the season and 1-5 in SEC play with five consecutive losses. With upcoming games against Arkansas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, the last two of those on the road, OU likely views the game in CoMo as one of its best opportunities to pick up a win over the next few weeks. If the team is unable to do so, and continues on its current course, this season could be Moser’s last in Norman.
3 Keys to the Game
Get Anthony Robinson II his swagger back
Anthony Robinson II was expected to be one of the top players in the SEC after an All-SEC Defensive Team nod last year, with the pairing of him and Mark Mitchell as the main catalyst to the success of this season’s team. Mitchell has been consistently excellent this year, but Robinson has been far less consistent and effective. The junior guard from Tallahassee has scored in the single digits each of the past five games since his 19-point outburst against Florida.
There’s no question why Robinson’s scoring has slumped: he’s shot just 9-of-33, or 27 percent, over the last five games. The shooting struggles are most pronounced from beyond the arc, where Robinson has gone 1-for-13 during that stretch. Mizzou assistant coach David “Dickey” Nutt offered his view at Tiger Talk on why one of the team’s key players has gone cold over the last few weeks:
“He needs a dose of confidence — we need to really get some confidence going with him. He needs to walk into this building with some swag like he’s the best guard in the league, because he is — he’s one of the best guards. He hasn’t shown it just yet. But in the games that we have won, he’s played well for us.”
Robinson has been at his best this season when MU has also been at its best. If Mizzou wants to again turn its season around, it needs to help Robinson do the same.
Control the paint
Oklahoma has held four of its last five opponents to below 31 percent shooting from three-point range. So why are the Sooners on a five game losing streak? Their opponents have controlled the interior, averaging nearly 40 points in the paint during that stretch and scoring nearly 15 second-chance points from offensive boards. More often than not, OU hasn’t been able to compensate for its struggles generating scoring on the interior with perimeter shooting.
Defending the three-point line has been a nagging issue for Mizzou this season, but the Tigers have been strong in the paint — something the team’s defense is designed to do. That strength will likely need to show again Saturday if MU wants to snap its two-game losing streak.
Stay safe
One of Mizzou’s key weaknesses on offense this season has been taking care of the ball. The Tigers average 12.7 turnovers per game, tied for 248th in the nation in that category, but have minimized the damage by allowing their opponents to score just 12.5 points off those giveaways. That wasn’t the case Tuesday, when Georgia scored 19 points off 12 MU turnovers — playing a key factor in the outcome of a 74-72 loss. Gates’ squad will need to tamp down on the mistakes that cost them against the Bulldogs, starting with taking care of the ball on offense and forcing tougher chances with their transition defense.
With rough weather predicted for Saturday, this key also has a double meaning. The conditions may make it difficult for some to reach Mizzou Arena, where fans have made Columbia one of the toughest places for SEC road teams to win over the last two seasons. How effectively the City of Columbia and MoDOT respond to the conditions, especially through clearing the roads, may actually play a role in the outcome of the game. And for anyone planning to attend the game, please stay safe as you make your way toward Champions Drive.
Game Prediction
My prediction: Mizzou 78 – Oklahoma 72
Entering Tuesday’s game against Georgia, Mizzou was 13-0 when it scored 72 or more points in a game. That changed to 13-1 after the team’s two-point loss to the Bulldogs, but the stat remains enlightening. When MU can put up even a solid offensive performance, that’s usually been enough to succeed — especially with the help of an improved defense since the return of Jayden Stone and Trent Pierce.
The Tigers’ struggles with scoring and defending on the perimeter opened it up to letdown losses against Ole Miss and LSU, and also makes it no guarantee they’ll take care of business as the favorites against a quickly fading Oklahoma team. But the Sooners’ five straight losses have provided Mizzou with a clear blueprint for victory, and it’s also a design that suits MU’s strengths. OU will put up a fight, but home court advantage should help the Tigers break their losing streak and move back above .500 in the SEC.
