With their win over Sacramento on Wednesday night, the Suns moved to 3-0 in NBA Cup play. One NBA Cup game remains, Friday against Oklahoma City, and there is a real shot at playing for the Cup.
This is where
I should give my public service announcement. I do not care much for the Cup nor see its value. I could drop a long explanation about the lack of real benefit, but the Suns sit in a position to advance in the early-season tournament, useless or not. That means I would be failing as managing editor if I did not lay out what needs to happen for them to qualify.
Side note. If the Suns win it and hang a banner in the Mortgage Matchup Center, that would be fucking embarrassing. You never want to see a trophy case built around something that is not an NBA title. Hanging that banner before a championship banner would feel like eating dessert for dinner, and the entire thing would come across as gross.
Maybe I am not alone in shrugging at the NBA Cup. In a competition where point differential actually matters, the Suns had every reason to pour it on last night against the Kings and did not. They walked the ball up late, held that 12-point cushion like it was enough, and let the clock breathe. That is not a team hungry for differential. That feels like a team good with the result, and maybe the thrill of racing up and down the court at the end of Cup games wore off after year one.
So here is what needs to happen for them to get in, then we can talk about why they probably should not want to.
Quick reminder. Four teams from each conference make the Cup. Three group winners, plus one wild card with the best remaining record. If records match, point differential breaks the tie.
The Suns and Thunder both sit at 3-0. Both live in West Group A. Phoenix carries a +35. Oklahoma City sits at +71. Yikes. If the Suns win Friday against the 18-1 Thunder, they qualify without stress. They would land as a top two seed. The Lakers sit outside the group with a 3-0 mark and a +36 differential, so whether Phoenix lands one or two would depend on what Los Angeles does against Dallas, and by how much.
If the Suns lose Friday, things get messy. A loss drops Phoenix to 3-1, and the margin matters. The +35 cushion shrinks with every point given back. How low it falls becomes the story, and one specific scenario comes into play after that.
If you look at West Group C, both Denver and San Antonio sit at 2–1 in group play. They play each other Friday, meaning one team is guaranteed to finish 3–1 while the loser drops to 2–2. A 2–2 finish doesn’t beat Phoenix’s potential 4-0 or 3–1 mark.
Which means the real drama shifts to West Group B.
The Lakers have already clinched that group after knocking off both teams still fighting for the final NBA Cup spot. The other two contenders — the Clippers and the Grizzlies — also meet Friday, both sitting at 2–1, and that matchup suddenly matters a whole lot to Suns fans.
Right now, Memphis holds a +9 point differential in Cup play. The Clippers, despite the same record, sit at -15. Why does that matter? Because the wild-card comes down to point differential.
So here’s the bottom line: The odds strongly favor Phoenix making the NBA Cup. Even if the Suns lose to OKC, Memphis would need to beat the Clippers by 26 or more to jump Phoenix in differential and steal the spot. Barring that kind of blowout, the Suns are in.
Here is where things get weird.
If Phoenix sneaks into the Cup, guess who they draw? The Oklahoma City Thunder. Again. If the Suns lose to OKC on Friday, and Memphis doesn’t run the Clippers off the floor, Phoenix ends up as the fourth seed. Fourth seed plays the top seed on December 9. The top seed is shaping up to be OKC because of that wild point differential.
So picture it. Lose to OKC on Friday. See OKC again in the quarterfinal. If they drop that one too, the follow-up would be the loser of Lakers vs Denver or San Antonio. The path stays heavy. Phoenix sees Thunder and Nuggets on back-to-back nights this weekend. The Cup could put them right back in that grind two weeks later.
Last season sits in the back of my mind. They went 3 of 1. Their +30 differential failed to catch Dallas at +46. They were the first team to miss the cut. What came next? The scheduling gods granted the Suns Utah and Portland. Two opponents who struggled in Cup play. I did not mind that outcome.
Wins matter for this group. Bank them wherever you can find them. This team entered the season with light expectations. If they want a real shot at a playoff run, you collect every winnable game. So far, they have done exactly that.
I wrote about this last season when Phoenix was in a similar scenario, having just missed the Cup. And I still agree with it 100%:
So you mean the Suns went 3-1, and their reward is playing two of the worst teams in the Western Conference? In games that count towards their schedule? Remind me…what’s the incentive for trying to win the NBA Cup? Harder competition and a hat?
Now, I know there is a contingent out there that is pro-NBA Cup. That likes the early season engagement, the bright courts, the playing to the buzzer, and the competition that ensues. My question to you is, doing my best possible Michael Scott impression, “Why are you the way that you are?”
I’m sure there are those out there saying, “John, why wouldn’t we want to see them play against the Thunder? To be the best you gotta beat the best. Why avoid playing them?” Bring on the Thunder! But let’s do it in the postseason. You know, that thing that matters.
I think back to last season, when the Suns made the In-Season Tournament but went 0-2. Imagine a world where they didn’t make it and were rewarded with easier completion. Two more wins? They could’ve been the fifth seed in the postseason instead of the sixth, and who knows what sliding door that would’ve opened.
So shucks. Darn. Drats. They didn’t make the NBA Cup.
But last night, they did what we wanted them to do, especially against a team that owned us last year. They won. And their reward? It’s better than any New Era hat. It’s a chance to improve their record against weak teams and a week off to boot. That’s right. The Suns have a back-to-back in Florida this weekend and don’t play again until Saturday the 15th. Plenty of time to rest up.
Now, what’s the point of the NBA Cup?
If you do not want the Suns in the Cup, the recipe is simple. Memphis needs a big win. Phoenix needs a big loss. If both break that way, Memphis jumps into the fourth spot, and Phoenix becomes the team that misses out.
That is your roadmap for the NBA Cup.
