If we rule out moves for players 23 years old and under every signing Premier League clubs make essentially fall into one of three buckets: replacements, upgrades, or depth.
Replacements are pretty straightforward. Player leaves, you need to replace them. They can be a little tricky when teams know you need to replace a player. The best run teams seem to make these signings before the actual player leaves making the transition easier.
Depth is the most difficult thing to sign for. It’s hard to convince
a player to come to your club to and primarily come off the bench with some spot starts here or there. Players want to play, and if they’re Premier League quality, some other team will be able to offer them comparable wages to actually play. The best way to get depth is to sign an upgrade in a certain position, hope the player you’re upgrading on doesn’t leave, and turn him into a backup or rotation option.
Then there’s the situation Manchester United find themselves in this summer in regards to their midfield.
Manchester United need to upgrade their midfield. For as good as Casemiro and Kobbie Mainoo were last season they were still a bit of a flawed pair that United would do well to try and upgrade.
There’s only one problem, Casemiro has left the club. That leaves United needing both an upgrade to their midfield and a replacement for Casemiro. This isn’t a totally abnormal situation for United or any club to find themselves in. What sets United apart is the depth, or lack of it.
On July 1st, the only senior central midfielder in the squad besides Mainoo was Manuel Ugarte (no, Mason Mount doesn’t count). Since Michael Carrick took over Ugarte has played just 160 minutes for United, 90 of which came when Mainoo was injured. Carrick’s actions made it clear he did not consider Ugarte an option in midfield, and that was before he wrecked his knee in the World Cup, which will rule him out for nearly the entire season.
United need upgrades in the midfield, they need replacements, and they need depth. To adequately prepare for a season that will see them play a minimum of 48 games they’re going to need to sign at least three midfielders in a single summer. This is something they’ve never done before.
Sure, they’ve signed two replacements before. In the summer of 2022 Casemiro and Christian Eriksen were brought in to replace the outgoing Paul Pogba and Nemanja Matic.
They’ve signed two players for depth before. In Morgan Schneiderlin and Bastien Schweinsteiger signed on the same day to deepen a central midfield unit that already contained Michael Carrick, Ander Herrera, Daley Blind, Marouane Fellaini, and (occasionally) Wayne Rooney.
But three midfielders in one summer?? You’d have to go back to 2007 (Owen Hargreaves, Anderson) to find a year where United signed three central midfielders in one summer and that’s only if we’re actually counting Rodrigo Possebon as a real first team signing!
This is unchartered territory for the club and, without trying to sound too hyperbolic, they are among the most crucial signings the club has ever made. Who they sign in midfield will dictate every other move the club can or will make the rest of the summer.
Michael Carrick’s tactics last season were entirely built around getting 90 minutes a week out of Casemiro. With Casemiro gone, it opens up a whole world of possibilities in terms of how you can play and what kind of players you can sign.
But it doesn’t stop there. United also need fullbacks. They need at least a left back to provide cover for Luke Shaw, and they could use an upgrade at right back too (though that’s not going to happen this summer). But what type of fullback do you need?
The last few years, United have not had ball progressers in midfield. That increased the need to have the fullbacks contribute more in the early phases of buildup play. If they were to replace Casemiro (and Ugarte) with similar profiles, then you’d need a fullback who can help the midfielders progress the ball. If you sign ball movers in midfield then you can look at fullbacks who can concentrate on pushing up the pitch and being more involved in the final third. There are also questions about mobility and ground coverage, you may need fullbacks to help out in that regard too.
Who they sign in midfield, what they ask their fullbacks to do, those things are all going to reverberate around the rest of the team. It’s going to impact how the attackers play, how much support they’re going to get in different situations. It might mean that Carrick can use his attackers completely differently to how he did last season. We’ve seen teams completely change the way they play when a new manager comes in, but I can’t recall a team doing it with a current manager the way United are about to.
Make no mistake, what United are attempting to do is extremely difficult. Most signings fail. Former Liverpool Director of Research, Ian Graham, states that the odds of a single signing working out are no better than 50/50. Those aren’t great odds when you’re signing three new players. United need all three potential signings to work out, given the lack of depth if even one of them is not up to the standard, it can be catastrophic for the season.
While the odds may not be favorable, there is hope for United. Just four years ago Liverpool went through a very similar situation. The Merseyside club weren’t planning on changing over their entire midfield, but when Saudi offers for Fabinho and Jordan Henderson were too good to turn down, the club ended up saying goodbye to four central midfielders in one summer. The club turned around and signed Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Wataru Endo, and Ryan Gravenberch. It took a while for things to settle in but the club went from a fifth-place finish to third, and then won the league a year later.
United will be hoping to emulate that this season – though they still have some other holes in the squad to fill. They’ve gotten off to a pretty good start. Andrey Santos has been talked about in Brazil as the heir apparent to Casemiro. Meanwhile at just £35 million, 29 year old Youri Tielemans could be a very strong depth piece if United play their cards right the rest of the window, which would mean the club has already filled the most difficult of all the signings. That both have Premier League experience shouldn’t be overlooked. As United only have one returning midfielder, it’s crucial for these guys to settle in quickly. Moving to a new job in a new city will have challenges for anyone – that these players won’t need to adjust to a new league will be a huge help.
This is the hardest season to preview Manchester United that I can remember. We genuinely don’t know what they’re going to try to do this season. We may know of where there’s a hole in the squad but we don’t know how they need to fill it. It all comes back to the midfield. The types of players they sign are going to dictate everything else when it comes to this team.
Three new players right in the heart of the team. That’s something Manchester United have never attempted before. In a season with Premier League and Champions League aspirations, they can’t afford what we’ll euphemistically call “learning opportunities.” They need to get it right on the first try.
