Duke (5-5, 4-2) travels to Chapel Hill Saturday to face North Carolina (4-6, 2-4) and attempt to retain possession of the Victory Bell, which Duke took last season via a 21-20 victory over the Tar Heels.
Game time is 3:30 EST with television coverage provided on the ACC Network. The Blue Devils are currently favored by 7 points. Both teams are coming off a loss in their last outing. Duke fell to Virginia 34-17 at home while North Carolina lost to Wake Forest 28-12 in Winston-Salem.
For the third consecutive game, the Blue Devils are seeking their sixth victory and bowl game eligibility. Is the third time a charm? Fingers crossed. North Carolina requires victories over both Duke and N.C. State to get to the requisite six wins.
At the beginning of Monday’s press conference, Duke Head Coach Manny Diaz addressed Duke’s disappointing performance in the loss to Virginia by saying, “Yesterday was an important day in the program to have the maturity and the accountability to own our performance on Saturday but also the focus and fortitude to put it behind us and focus on what is a really, really important week for the program. I thought the guys did a really nice job of that, we are able to move on, we had a good practice last night and all of our attention goes forward to getting a win on the road this weekend down in Chapel Hill.”
Common Opponents: Duke and North Carolina have played four common opponents earlier in the season. Both teams lost to Virginia and beat Syracuse; Duke beat California (45-21) and Clemson (46-45) while North Carolina lost to California (21-18) and Clemson (38-10). So Duke has a 3-1 record against common opponents whereas North Carolina is 1-3. These results have very little to no impact on this week’s game but they are worth mentioning as a data point.
Injury Update: Duke’s defense is dealing with significant injuries especially at linebacker where Nick Morris and Elliot Schaper are out for the season, Kendall Johnson hasn’t played the past two games and Tre Johnson strained his hamstring late in the Virginia game on his Pick 6 touchdown. In Monday’s press conference, Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Patke stated Freeman is day-to-day so there is a chance he will be able to play Saturday. Duke’s secondary is also banged up. Cornerbacks Moussa Kane and Kimari Robinson did not play last week and safety Terry Moore remains unavailable while recovering from a torn ACL. The official injury report will be released Thursday evening.
Offense: Statistically, the North Carolina offense is challenged. They rank 16/17 in the ACC in Scoring Offense; 17/17 in Total Offense; 16/17 in Passing Offense; 14/17 in Rushing Offense. The Tar Heels have had multiple injuries on the offensive line but they are getting healthier and playing better week-to-week. There is no doubt they will be motivated to have their best performance of the season in the Duke game.
Quarterback Gio Lopez has completed 138 of 218 pass attempts for 1,425 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. He has been sacked 14 times for 78 yards. His leading receivers are Jordan Shipp with 44 receptions for 498 yards and four touchdowns, and Kobe Paysour with 25 receptions for 326 yards and one touchdown.
Demon June leads the rushing attack with 76 carries for 452 yards and two touchdowns followed by Benjamin Hall with 63 carries for 236 yards and two touchdowns.
The Duke defense has struggled on 3rd down in recent games so expect to see an emphasis on getting Carolina’s quarterback to the ground in obvious passing situations. A heavy blitz package against Gio Lopez could be effective but Lopez is mobile so blitzing is both a high reward and high risk tactic.
In order to get Carolina in 3rd down situations, Duke must prevent Carolina from successfully running the ball on early downs. Stopping the run is always priority number one.
Defense: Discussing watching the North Carolina defense on tape Diaz stated that “the first thing you see is a defensive front that is very disruptive. When you look at their numbers they are hard to run the ball against and they affect the quarterback, they put a lot of pressure on the quarterback, they have a ton of sacks. They are going to challenge throws down the field.”
Those sacks start with defensive end Melkart Abou Jaoude who has 10 sacks and linebacker Tyler Thompson who has seven sacks. The Duke offensive line must protect quarterback Darian Mensah to give him time to pass the ball and Mensah must get the ball out quickly to avoid the pressure.
Linebacker Khmori House is the Tar Heels’ leading tackler with 68. Six different players have one interception each.
Look for Duke to attack the North Carolina defense with a combination of quick passes and a strong running game to set up downfield shots. The main question to be answered is: can Duke run the ball against North Carolina’s defensive line? If the answer is yes, the Duke offense will roll Saturday afternoon.
During media availability on Tuesday, Mensah discussed the importance of running the ball, “If you can run the ball you have a much higher chance to win the game, so we have to come out with some fire and make sure we can run the ball just so we are not in obvious drop back situations.”
Prediction: Duke’s offense finds its stride to outscore an offense challenged North Carolina squad. Duke 24, North Carolina 19.
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