The Mariners have some decisions to make.
MLB Trade Rumors released its arbitration projections earlier this month. The Mariners have 15 players eligible for arbitration. If the Mariners offered contracts to each arbitration-eligible player, they would add an estimated $58.3 million to their payroll in 2027. They could also release some of these players and avoid paying their salary, freeing up room in the budget to pursue other players in trades or free agency. That dynamic makes arbitration a notable
task each offseason, as it can provide a glimpse into how the Mariners view their players and roster.
A player begins their career on a rookie contract that pays the league minimum, roughly $780,000 per year. They become eligible for arbitration once they reach three years of service time. They maintain that eligibility until reaching free agency after six years of service time. (There are, of course, exceptions.) The structure gives established players a chance to earn more money for good performance — Tarik Skubal earned a record $32 million in arbitration in 2026 — and it allows teams to maintain significant control over both their player and their budget.
Arbitration tends to be the best bang for a team’s buck, as John Stanton alluded to in a recent interview with the Seattle Times. A player has to literally earn a higher wage in the preceding season, reducing risk to teams in comparison to free agency, where contracts are guaranteed. Arbitration-eligible players also don’t have the ability to negotiate their wage on the open market, effectively capping their earning potential. Teams can also release these players without recourse, or trade these players to earn value back. That’s why some teams, like the Rays and Brewers, tend to operate with a ruthless, actuarial approach to their arbitration-eligible players, hoping to exploit inefficiencies in the market and accumulate value at the margins. Basically, arbitration is one of the key drivers in the baseball economy, ensuring low-budget teams can compete and turn a profit while doing so.
Teams have until some time in January to reach an agreement with their arbitration-eligible players. If they don’t, both sides go to, you know, arbitration, where a bunch of lawyers fist fight over that players value until another lawyer decides their salary. How that process will work this year is unclear with the Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire in December. Who knows, maybe everyone will get paid in v-bucks come March.
This is as good a time as any to check in on the Mariners payroll. At the moment, it’s about $60 million in guaranteed contracts. If they were to give the estimated contact to each of their arbitration eligible players, that would put their payroll at about $120 million for 2027. That’s roughly where it’s been at the beginning of the last few offseasons.
The $120M figure doesn’t include team options for Andrés Muñoz or Victor Robles. Assuming they opt for the former and opt against the latter, that brings their payroll closer to $130M. We can see last year, they had a payroll of about $173 million on Opening Day (though $9 million of that was a signing bonus for Colt Emerson). That’s to say, the Mariners, barring massive upheaval in the final CBA, will likely start the season with a payroll between $150 million and $170 million, giving them something close to $20-40 million to spend this offseason.
That’s… not a lot, given how many holes existed on this roster at the end of last year. They need to find a third baseman and an outfielder and some help in the bullpen. It’s possible they will cut salary by releasing arbitration-eligible players, but as I discuss below, there aren’t a lot of obvious choices.
The Locks
Logan Gilbert (5.144): $15.4MM
George Kirby (4.151): $9.8MM
Bryan Woo (3.121): $5.2MM
Dominic Canzone (3.014): $3MM
The Mariners aren’t going to cut any of these players. Sure, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby struggled in 2026, but as far as contracts go, these are quite friendly for starting pitchers with tip-top potential. It’s more likely either or both exceed their “value” on the $/WAR scale by two or three times than fall short.
Also, note how little Bryan Woo is expected to make in 2027. He was the eighth best pitcher in the majors by fWAR the last two seasons. Jacob deGrom was ninth, and is set to make $37 million next year (about seven times more than Woo).
The Former Locks
Bryce Miller (3.153): $3.9MM (Mariners hold a $6.075MM option with $15K buyout)
Gabe Speier (5.000): $3.3MM
Matt Brash (4.121): $1.8MM
There was a time when it would have been unconscionable for the Mariners to willingly let these players go. Perhaps that time is still now… yeah, it’s probably still now. The Mariners simply don’t have enough pitching to give up on any talented but flawed arms, is probably the correct framing for this group.
Gabe Speier regressed in every way in 2026, and he’s set to make kind of a lot for a reliever in a Low Budget Org — if they’re going to cut one of these three, I think it’s Speier. But he got a lot better in the second half, and it’s probably worth seeing what’s left in the tank in his age-32 season. Matt Brash would normally be an obvious choice to cut, given he’s only thrown 64 innings the last three seasons, but he’s been dominant during his rare, healthy stretches.
Had Bryce Miller pitched better in 2026, I would have bothered to figure out how his contract works. But I don’t care about to think any more about Miller at the moment. I assume the Mariners will hold on to him, and I assume they’ll try to pay him as little as possible.
Too New To Cut
Brendan Donovan (5.000): $6.1MM
Jose A. Ferrer (3.094): $1.6MM
Neither of these players had good years, but cutting them now would be admitting defeat, and there is no greater sin.
The Meat
Luke Raley (4.106): $3.1MM
Eduard Bazardo (3.118): $1.5MM
Michael Rucker (3.069): $800K
Cooper Criswell (2.143): $900K
Carlos Vargas (2.140): $800K
These are the fellas the team is discussing as you are reading this.
Luke Raley I think is the most interesting name on the entire list. He’s a 32-year-old corner outfielder — one of the worst defenders in the league — who’s spent more time on the injured list the last two years than on the field. He’s redundant on the roster, and has posted a total of 0.5 fWAR since 2025. Generally, I would say this seems like an obvious cut, and that’s probably still the case. But Raley happened to post a 215 wRC+ in May, as one of the 10 best months for a Mariner this century. The ceiling for Raley when healthy is very, very, high, and it’s unlikely they can find that ceiling elsewhere on the market. Whether the Mariners think his ceiling is worth the lack of versatility (and availability), well, that’s why Arb Watch is a fun offseason chore.
Then there’s the relievers. I could see the Mariners cutting all four of them. I could see them holding onto all four of them. I really don’t know. Again, I don’t think the org is really in a position to be picky about pitching at this point, and each of these relievers has something to offer.
Eduard Bazardo I think is the easiest cut. He’s set to make the most of the group, and he posted a 6.58 ERA and 7.29 FIP in the second half. The Mariners really wore him down the last two years, and I’m not sure I expect much in his age-32 season. But there’s a reason they called his number so often the last two seasons, and it’s hard to imagine this bullpen without Everyday Eddie.
Michael Rucker might be new Bazardo in that sense. The team seemed to view him as Mr. Whoopsies Somebody Has To Pitch this year, sticking him in the fifth-to-seventh inning cleanup role. Rucker got a bad rap because a lot of runs scored while he was pitching, and some of those runs came at times when fans wanted a different reliever in the game — he was an unwitting political football in The Dan Wilson Conspiracy. But Rucker also posted a 3.90 FIP, 3.91 xERA, and struck out 27% of batters faced. He has a big lively fastball with great shape, and a big sweeping curveball that misses bats. He scores well on the all the Pitching models. And for essentially the league minimum? Yeah, I don’t think the Mariners are going to do much better in the pile.
Cooper Criswell is interesting because he also looks pretty good by FIP and xERA (and even regular ERA). He was a solid low leverage guy, though missed a couple months with a pectoral strain that limited his usefulness. Criswell doesn’t strikeout batters and his stuff isn’t impressive, but he has a funky arm slot and hits his spots and manages contact well enough. Criswell’s greatest asset in the past was his ability cover a swingman role, which the Mariners generally don’t need, so I could see being easier to cut than someone like Rucker, who could conceivably develop into a high-leverage arm. But again, at the league minimum, Criswell seems like a decent option for a team not really in the position to be choosy in the bullpen.
Carlos Vargas… I have no idea. He was one of the worst pitchers in the majors in 2025, largely because he ran a minuscule strikeout rate and a 56% groundball rate in front of an awful infield defense. He then spent most of 2026 on the injured list with a lat strain. His numbers were a little more encouraging after the return, but he’s yet to turn his big-time stuff into whiffs and success. If the Mariners keep him, it’s because the league minimum is a bargain for a reliever with infinite potential. If they cut him, well, it’s because he’s Carlos Vargas.
I Don’t Recall Saying Good Luck
Patrick Wisdom (4.135): $1.1MM
Goodbye, so long, farewell.
