The Kansas City Royals will play their 10th game today, and went 4-5 in the first nine games of the year. Great? No. Awful? Also no. When the baseball season starts, it’s really hard to keep things in perspective. The season is 162 games for a reason: it takes a long time for trends to stabilize, and a few games aren’t a big enough sample size from which to draw conclusions.
Just about anything can happen in any given set of nine consecutive games. Last year, the Royals’ worst nine-game stretch happened
in April when they went 1-8. Just a few weeks later, they played their best nine-game stretch and went 8-1. Heck, last year’s Colorado Rockies lost 119 games and still managed to go 7-2 over nine games in August.
But we’ve played enough baseball where there are some statistics that stick out and are worth keeping an eye on. They represent some hope and some worry as Kansas City goes through April
8th and 15.6%
Kansas City’s fly ball percentage league ranking infield fly ball percentage
We’re starting off with maybe a little cheating considering that these are two different stats, but I’m listing them as one because the relation between them is what’s important.
Kansas City hits a lot of fly balls. While the median team is hitting fly balls about 37% of the time, the Royals are hitting fly balls 40.5% of the time. Unfortunately, a lot of the Royals’ fly balls are popups: 15.6% of them, in fact, significantly above the team median at a tick above 9%.
To be a top-eight team in fly ball rate and infield fly ball rate is not good. The denominator for infield fly ball rate is fly balls, not overall batted balls. What that ultimately means is that the Royals are hitting into a large amount of easy outs—strikeouts in the air, basically. And this is doubly disappointing because the Royals led Major League Baseball in infield fly ball rate last year. This problem has not been fixed.
123
Royals outfielder combined wRC+
It was no secret to anybody that the outfield was Royals’ biggest problem last year, especially offensively. But so far, early returns of this year’s outfield are quite positive. Isaac Collins has drawn a lot of walks and has gotten on base at a high clip, replicating what he did last year in Milwaukee. Kyle Isbel has started off red hot. Jac Caglianone looks way more comfortable at the plate and has been productive despite a lack of power. It’s been a nice change.
.270
Salvador Perez’s on base percentage
Salvy has a pair of home runs and a pair of doubles already in this short season, his prodigious power being in full play. He’s on pace for another 30-homer season. To have that at catcher is great.
Unfortunately, Salvy continues to be an out-making machine. His OBP this year is .270, and that’s even buoyed by a surprising three walks this year. His OBP since the start of last year is .283, which is the second-lowest among all players with 600 or more plate appearances during that time.
I know Salvy is a legend. I know he hits bombs. And I know his bat can change games with one swing. But I just don’t see how the Royals can make the playoffs with such low on base ability coming out of the fourth spot in the lineup.
8
Number of times a Royals reliever has given up two or more runs in one relief appearance
During the offseason, there didn’t seem to be much ink spilled about the bullpen. Most of its pieces were returning, and there was a seeming upgrade from Angel Zerpa to newly acquired Matt Strahm.
But maybe there should have been. Look: I don’t expect every reliever to put up clean innings all the time, so a run here or there isn’t a big deal. Giving up two or more runs in one appearance, though, involves a huge mistake pitch or a meltdown.
Unfortunately for the Royals, melting down is one of the things this bullpen has done with consistency. The instance that sticks out furthest is Carlos Estevez’s disaster of a blown save in the second game of the year, but he hasn’t been alone. The Royals have only played nine games this year, but a reliever has given up two or more runs in a single outing on eight occasions so far this year. It’s been a team sport, too, involving Matt Strahm, Lucas Erceg, Steven Cruz, Daniel Lynch IV, Alex Lange, Bailey Falter (twice), and Estevez.
As a result, Kansas City’s bullpen has an ERA north of 6.00. It’s still early, but this could be a growing point of concern for the club as the year goes on.
6
Number of times the rotation has lasted 5+ innings and given up two or fewer runs
On the other side of the coin, the Royals starting pitching has been nothing short of nails. Cole Ragans had a rough outing the first game of the season, replacement starter Luinder Avila got lit up in what will likely be his only start in a while, and Kris Bubic struggled in yesterday’s start against a good Brewers team.
Other than those three, though? Brilliance. The Kansas City rotation continues to be a marvel, and with the offense’s struggles over the last year I think folks are starting to take the rotation for granted. Don’t. It’s a joy to watch every starter on the mound, and there are plenty of teams envious of what the Royals have in that department.
0
Number of extra-base hits by Bobby Witt Jr.
Bob has walked at a 12.8% clip so far, which is great and would easily be a career high if he can maintain it. But we’re nine games into the season and Witt is still searching for his very first extra base hit.
Some of this is luck; Witt has hit the ball hard a few times this season that have been right at players or in the wrong spot. Just yesterday, Witt hit a fly ball at 105.1 MPH that Statcast put an expected batting average of .900 but it turned into an out. But it’s not all luck. Witt’s just not pulling the ball very much and he’s hitting fewer fly balls than he ever has, and pulling those line drives and fly balls is how most hitters access their power.
What’s uncomfortable about Witt’s lack of offensive production is that it shows how much Kansas City relies on him to be great—not just good or ok, but great. That the Royals are 4-5 right now is almost miraculous. Witt will turn it around, but until he does the Royals will simply struggle to win baseball games and there’s no way to mitigate that.
