I have a terrible track record when it comes to singling out players. Recently, I’ve glorified Tyler Fitzgerald, Logan Webb, and Willy Adames, and turned into pumpkins soon after my exaltations. Alternatively, my naysaying spotlight pointed at Rafael Devers received a double middle finger from him by his explosive season with the bat. So, I did briefly considered making this a real miserable post, but I have to believe that at some point, there will be alignment.
Jonah Cox is the most exciting San
Francisco Giant playing today.
I know, I know. There’s Bryce Eldridge. There was Rafael Devers. There’s, uh… um… other dudes maybe somewhere. But just like a movie star entering a room, there’s a light that shines whenever Jonah Cox is on the TV screen. Sure, a little bit of that is the stadium lighting reflecting off his fair features, but the rest of it is the undeniable talent. Somehow, the Giants have found a contact-speed threat the likes of which we haven’t seen in a very long time and one who seems setup to make a huge positive impact for next year’s team (which probably won’t be good, but should be interesting at the very least).
Justice delos Santos wrote a heckuva profile about Cox last week and the section on his swing adjustment really got me excited.
Before the team traveled to Boston, Cox and Mense talked about implementing a wider base with no stride. When Cox tried it out in the cage, Mense recalled him three straight line drives up the middle.
Cox introduced his refurbished mechanics on Aug. 23 and saw immediate results.
From August 23rd to September 16th, Cox slashed .329/.386/.461 in 23 games (86 PA) with 3 homers, a double, and 9 stolen bases. Three weeks of me going gaga here in my mom’s basement. Earlier in the piece, hitting coach Hunter Mense put my it plainly: “Anybody that has the kind of toolset that he does is incredibly exciting to watch because you don’t know what the ceiling is going to be.”
Sometimes, there’s added hype from the context. But that’s just not the case here. I don’t care that the Giants got him from the A’s. For Ross Stripling. During Farhan Zaidi’s tenure. But that he also flourished under the new player development program run by Randy Winn. It only matters that he’s here and he’s got me excited about a team I have been invited (and taken the opportunity) to hate a little bit.
But maybe the streak is over. Maybe it’s time to take off the rose colored glasses. Maybe it’s logical to tone down my excitement. This past week, he’s struck out 12 times in 25 plate appearances (48 K%) and is 2-for-20 (.100). That speed and defense has certainly helped prop up his profile overall (he’s about a 1 WAR player right now no matter the WAR system), but he’s got a lot of swing and miss. Too much. On the season, it’s 60 strikeouts to 10 walks in 157 plate appearances. Putting aside the 6:1 ratio, that’s still 38.3% overall.
In the minors, it’s a far more palatable 23.4% for his career and 17% here in 2026. He hit .400 in the minors this season, you know. It’s so easy to root for him and dream big right now. But check out this list of 2B/OF types who had 200 PA or fewer, 15 or fewer walks and 60 or more strikeouts (which I’ve gone ahead and sorted by rWAR):
I didn’t expect to get just 33 results; but, as I suspected, it’s not promising. On the other hand — wow, Jonah Cox is the best of this bunch. What I’m looking to see is whether or not this could be a part of a players’ track record long-term. To do that, I needed to sort by age. The younger the player, the better chance of this being a sort of rough start to a career.
Players for whom this was their final season
Rick Ankiel, Brant Brown
Players who’d play in just 1 more season
Bill Hall (14 MLB PAs for Baltimore), Gregory Polanco (382 PA for PIT; 72 OPS+), Jhonkensy Noel (153 PA for CLE; 31 OPS+), Trayvon Robinson (164 PA for SEA; 76 OPS)
Players who had a couple of years left
Drew Stubbs (last game: 5/5/2017 w/Giants), Jake Marisnick (last game: 7/18/2023), Reggie Taylor (2005), Travis Demeritte (2022)
Players who lasted a few more years
Andrew Knapp (last game: 8/28/2024 w/Giants), Jake Cave (2024), Cory Snider (1994), Chris Owings (2023), Deven Marrero (2022), Mikie Mahtook (2019), Garrett Hampson (2025), JaCoby Jones (2021), Keston Hiura (2025), Brett Phillips (2023)
Long career
Egyptian Healy (1885-1892)*, Gorman Thomas (1973-1986)
Result in current season/still active
Gabriel Arias, Jonah Cox, Tristan Gray, James Outman, Denzel Clarke, Alex Jackson, Connor Norby, Josh Lowe, Jordan Beck, Leody Taveras
So, after reviewing MLB history, the most accurate thing we could say is that nothing is set in stone. Cox could go either way. Makes sense. This is his age-24 season. He’s got a heckuva MiLB track record. Egyptian Healy (1886) and Gorman Thomas (1973) are the two outliers in this comparison group — Healy was a pitcher who amassed that hitting line — who are from such wildly different eras that a comparison doesn’t seem relevant. Just eyeballing the list, if Cox is to have longevity at all, it’ll be because of his speed and defense. But will his bat push him into being a regular or is he bound for the bench?
Strikeout rates are as instructive as walk rates — at least, to me they are. There’s some research to suggest that Double-A numbers are also strong predictors of MLB success/failure, and so when I mash those two ideas together in my brain I get the idea that Jonah Cox is still making the adjustment to major league pitching. But that 17% MiLB strikeout rate sis a swing and a drive away from the 38.2% he has in his first 157 plate appearances. The scant Statcast data isn’t exciting either. 5.8% barrel rate. Just a .213 expected batting average. A 32.7% chase rate.
Still, he’s kind of unique. If you filter the age to 24 or younger and set a minimum threshold for stolen bases of 10, then the only comp is that Leody Taveras season, who was graded as one of the best prospects and athletes when he signed as an international amateur in 2015 and as he got older was graded for playing plus defense at a premium position. Now, some speedsters can thrive if they can square up the ball, but Cox isn’t at that point — not yet, anyway.
The position comparison doesn’t necessarily suggest that regular starter I’d so hoped for either, but he has certainly demonstrated an intensity and physical talent to keep an eye on; the team isn’t necessarily set at the position, but at the very least with Gilbert there, too, they’ve got options in center that they didn’t have a year ago.
But, I guess, pump the brakes. Take a breath. Cox is not quite the surprise breakout of this rebuild season, but he has certainly made us all anxious to see if he can take the next step.
