The New York Giants are on a five-game losing streak and are traveling to Detroit for Week 12. The Lions possess one of the most potent offenses in the league, with a rugged offensive line, a plethora
of skilled players, and a head coach who took over play-calling two weeks ago.
Dan Campbell assumed the role of play caller during the 44-22 win over the Washington Commanders in Week 10. He relieved offensive coordinator, John Morton. It was an excellent start for Campbell, but the Lions were held to just nine points in Week 11 in Philadelphia against the Eagles.
Detroit lost 16-9 in Philadelphia and is now in third place in the NFC North with a respectable 6-4 record. With the 2-9 Giants coming to town, it’s safe to say that Week 12 may act as a get-right game for the Lions. The Giants are 10.5-point road underdogs with an Over-Under of 49.5 points. The presence of rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart will be important for the Giants, but a dome-game featuring Jameis Winston could still yield points for Big-Blue — but can the Giants’ porous defense slow down Jared Goff and the Lions?
Lions’ statistics
Detroit averages 29.2 points per game, tied for fourth in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills. Only the Colts, Cowboys, and Seahawks score more. The Lions also put up 366.9 yards per game, fifth-best in the league. Their dynamic one-two rushing attack—powered primarily by Jahmyr Gibbs with David Montgomery as a strong complementary force—ranks seventh in the NFL at 130.1 rushing yards per game.
Jared Goff averages 236.8 passing yards per game, which ranks ninth in the NFL. The Lions’ play-action passing attack is dangerous, and Goff thrives in that environment. Conversely, the Giants significantly struggled to defend play-action passing. The Lions’ red-zone offense is dangerous, averaging a 66.67% touchdown conversion rate, tied for fifth in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills.
Detroit isn’t top-10 in every offensive category. They do rank 27th overall in third-down conversion rate, with a 36% average. For context, the Green Bay Packers are number one in the NFL with a 49.19 average; New York allowed a 7-of-11 conversion rate last week: 63.6%. The Giants’ offense is 12th in the league with a 40.54% average.
The matchup
The Lions have used 11 personnel at a 57% rate. That primary package consists of one of the most dynamic receivers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and one of the best deep threats, Jameson Williams, who was recently rewarded with a contract. Veteran Kalif Raymond typically operates the slot in 11 personnel.
I would expect the Giants to see more 11 personnel with the injury to tight end Sam Laporta. Brock Wright assumed the full-time role against the Eagles after LaPorta was placed on IR. In that game, the Lions used 11 personnel at an insanely high 92% rate. Ross Dwelley is the Lions’ second tight end behind Wright, and he played just two snaps.
This likely means lighter personnel for Shane Bowen, a lot of either 2-4-5 or 3-3-5 Nickel. What’s interesting about that, though, is last week’s benching of Dru Phillips. I’m not sure exactly how the Giants are going to handle their nickel package. Paulson Adebo and Kayvon Thibodeaux did not practice on Wednesday.
Detroit should have no problem rushing out of 11 personnel against the Giants. Gibbs averages 5.2 yards per carry with 732 yards on the ground and eight rushing touchdowns. He’s also secured 37 of 43 targets for 334 yards with two receiving touchdowns. He is likely in for a big game against the Giants. Montgomery has 493 yards on the ground with five rushing touchdowns (averages 4.5 YPC).
St. Brown is the Lions’ leading receiver with 735 yards on 66 catches (91 targets) and eight touchdowns. Williams has 562 yards with five touchdowns on 31 catches (47 targets). The injury to LaPorta has opened up targets; his replacement, Brock Wright, saw four and secured two for eight yards against Philadelphia. Rookie Isaac TeSlaa will spell one of the three receivers in certain packages or if they’re tired. Expect him to replace Raymond in the red zone.
Goff has been sacked 20 times so far this season. He’s completed 216 of 310 attempts (69.7%) for 2,492 with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions. New York has a skilled pass rush, but getting to Goff will be difficult with the Lions’ offensive line.
Detroit’s offensive line suffered several injuries against Philadelphia, including impressive rookie guard Tate Ratledge and star left tackle Penei Sewell; the latter finished the game and did not miss a play, but had his ankle heavily taped. Late in the fourth quarter, center Graham Glasgow was rolled up on, but he, too, stayed in the football game. Sewell (ankle) and right tackle Taylor Decker (shoulder) did not practice on Wednesday. The others were limited in practice.
Bowen is going to be Bowen. The Giants will align in man coverage on third-and-short. If they blitz, it will likely be a five-man rush off the A-Gap or with the apex defender — Green Bay was quite dialed into everything the Giants were doing from a pressure standpoint — I expect the same from the Lions, unfortunately.
The Giants lack talent on the back end of their defense. It’ll likely be a long day for the secondary, and the burden of making a play will fall on the front. This is one of the tougher matchups for Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns. Hopefully, Kayvon Thibodeaux can play; if not, we’ll see nearly a full complement of snaps for Abdul Carter, who has his work cut out for him against Sewell and Decker.
Final thoughts
Any given Sunday, right? Well, maybe not. The Giants’ defense has surrendered 156 points over this five-game losing streak (average of 31.2 points). They struggle to fit the run; the play-action passing attack carves them up, they miss tackles, and players are getting benched left and right on an already injured squad. It’s not going to get better in Detroit against one of the more efficient and explosive offenses in the league. The Giants will play hard — most of them — but Detroit will get right in Week 12.
