It’s not long until Sunderland kick off our Europa League campaign with a home tie against AZ Alkmaar on the 16th of September.
With that in mind, and given that the new format of UEFA’s club competitions might be unfamiliar to some, I will assess how many points should be enough to see Sunderland progress through to a knockout match.
The New Format
Since the 2024-25 season, the Europa League has had a new format. In the traditional format, each team was in a group with three other teams, and each team played each other home
and away.
The new format was introduced for the 2024-25 season. In this format, every team plays eight games in the so-called ‘league stage’ – four at home and four away. All of the 36 teams in the competition are placed into one big league table.
At the end of the league stage, the top eight teams head straight to the round of 16. The teams placed between 9th and 24th have to play a playoff knockout tie in order to qualify for the round of 16. The bottom nine teams placed between 25th and 36th are knocked out of the competition.
In addition, the teams that finish in the top eight are seeded in the draw for the round of 16, meaning that they are guaranteed to play their home leg last.
How Many Points Do Sunderland Need?
The Europa League’s new format has only been in place for two seasons, so the sample size of the number of points needed to progress is very small.
However, the Champions League has used the same format for the same number of years, so using both competitions gives a better insight into what we need.
Round of 16
In three out of the four competitions, the team in 8th place finished on 16 points, and 14 points in the other.
In only one of these seasons did goal difference play a part: in last season’s Europa League, Roma only finished ahead of Genk because their goal difference was three higher.
As such, it seems that 16 points should be enough to see Sunderland straight through to the round of 16.
Playoff round
According to previous editions of the Champions League and Europa League, 12 points should almost certainly see Sunderland qualify for the playoff round.
In two of the competitions, nine points and a better goal difference was enough. On the two other occasions, ten points and 11 points were required.
How many should Sunderland aim to achieve?
Given the relative strength of the Premier League as a whole compared to other leagues across Europe, achieving at least 12 points should be more than achievable for Sunderland.
In last season’s Europa League, Aston Villa finished second in the league stage on 21 points, with seven wins out of eight games. Forest finished in 13th on 14 points with four wins, two draws, and two defeats.
The season before that, Manchester United and Spurs finished third and fourth with 18 and 17 points respectively.
Although we might not field a full strength team in every game due to the demands of the Premier League, I think this Sunderland squad should have enough to win at least three out of four home matches. This and hopefully a couple of wins on the road will be more than enough to see us through.
No matter what happens, it’s going to be an adventure and one that hopefully continues long into the season for Sunderland!
