Again Tottenham Hotspur looked much more alive in the cup, at least when it comes to scoring goals, and 2.24 xG against (a rotated) Liverpool is a reminder that the potential is there. However, that potential has yet to manifest in the Premier League, with the scoreless streak at 360 minutes and counting, and an extended international break is getting dangerously close.
The final match before this fall window is against a side that is…somehow lower in the table? Most expected Aston Villa to take a step
back domestically because of Champions League obligations, but it is still pretty strange to see last season’s fourth-place finishers open the year with a single point through four matches, having scored just one more goal than Spurs.
Both teams will really want to avoid spending the next three weeks thinking about their winless starts to the campaign, but winning a match requires scoring a goal, and neither side has been great at that. Tottenham probably feels like this is a good opportunity to pick that first win all things considered, but the burden of proof remains high.
Match Details
Date: Saturday, September 19
Time: 7:30 am ET, 12:30 pm UK
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: USA Network (US), TNT Sports Ultimate (UK)
Despite two top-four finishes and a sixth-placed effort by Villa, these teams have won one apiece in each of the past three seasons (though Spurs have been knocked out of the last two FA Cups by this opponent). The sides last met in May with a resounding victory for a desperate Tottenham squad at Villa Park, with Conor Gallagher scoring one of his two goals in Lilywhite (the other coming Tuesday).
Optimistically finding comfort in misery
Clearly, Spurs have gotten results in this fixture regardless of the gap in quality — or at least in the table — but it has been a bit since Villa looked this poor. That should seemingly make this the right moment for Roberto De Zerbi’s squad to really seize the reins and finally get that resounding win that the supporters have been dreaming about since the summer.
The Villa defense has been better since conceding four against Brighton in the opening matchweek, but there have been cracks as well, with Club Brugge and Forest peppering a healthy number of shots (14, 22) and shots on target (7, 7) in their recent contests. While raw shooting stats are not the ultimate measure, it feels like the Omar Marmoush-Dominic Solanke-Savio trio should not struggle getting looks on net.
Getting these attackers the ball does mean seeing and making the right passes early on in the build-up. Unai Emery’s defense will try to stymie the Tottenham attack by solidifying the middle of the pitch, knowing that the wide players can often find themselves drifting inside. The key here to me is ambition: Spurs must be bold and actually try to generate some offense, otherwise this drought may never end.
Pessimistically afraid of the break
With the League Cup run over already, and a ceiling appearing on what this Premier League campaign can bring, the vibes are turning somewhat bleak. Sure, there are more green shoots popping up every week, but is this fanbase really ready for a true rebuilding year just after back-to-back completely dismal 38-match efforts?
I do not think that is going to sit well with most supporters, especially if the new-look attack continues to be just as (un)productive as its predecessor. Failing to perform against a languishing Villa will make the next three weeks extremely miserable, and soon enough the fixture list will start featuring sides that are much more punishing.
The good news is that Villa is still trying to figure out how to generate its own goals following the departure of Morgan Rogers, though Dr. Tottenham might be sitting on standby. While Alysson’s goal off the bench last weekend was the side’s only goal in the league, like Spurs, the output has been more positive in the other competitions. With three against Brugge and three in the cup on Wednesday, this attack might be really to break out of its slump.
Realistically exhausted
It is not that fun to keep saying the same things over and over, but what else is there to even diagnose? Tottenham’s subpar attacking efforts appear opponent invariant, or at least to the extent where tactical breakdowns keep coming back to how Spurs can overcome their own shortcomings. The good news is that with Mohammed Kudus and James Maddison at least fit to feature now, there are multiple options at every attacking spot, so the breakthrough could be coming.
I suppose it is worth commending the back six as well after consecutive weekends with clean sheets. Micky van de Ven and Jan Paul van Hecke are doing exactly what is expected of them, Mateus Fernandes looks like the real deal, and Rodrigo Bentancur continues to be the undroppable midfielder. Neither Forest nor Everton offer the most fearsome firepower, but clean sheets were such a rarity last season that they cannot be taken for granted.
Though this conclusion is supposed to be realistic, I keep leaning into optimism because it really does seem like the pieces are there on paper for this team to be good! At least, the results should be much better than the first four weeks have shown, and none of these matches have appeared unwinnable. A struggling Villa is the latest to fit this criteria, so once again I am looking for three points.
