Today, I’m only going to cover the Memphis Redbirds and the starting pitching prospects at Springfield. On Thursday, the relievers at Springfield and the lower minors, but not the rookie leagues. I gave the update on the rookie leagues earlier this month. But there really aren’t that many interesting rookie league pitchers so it wouldn’t have added a ton to this post.
Memphis
Quinn Mathews, LHP – 25 (VEB’s #4 prospect)
Acquired: 4th round, 2023 draft
Stats: 18 GS, 85 IP, 29.1 K%, 14.1 BB%, 47.9 GB%, .211 BABIP,
3.39 ERA/4.90 FIP/4.41 xFIP/4.58 DRA
The problem Quinn Mathews is currently facing is that he has not managed to string many starts together where he seemed to have control. He walked four guys in his first start this season, and then over a period of three consecutive starts, the best he did all year was 5 walks. But you could only find one three-start period where he did that. His next highest was 6 walks over 3 games. Same thing. You were more likely to look at his last three starts and see 9 or 10 walks than 5 or 6.
Good news however: his most recent three starts involved just 3 total walks, for a BB% of 4.4%. I’m not sure what kind of sample the Cardinals are looking for, I kind of think they’d walk better control over a longer period than just three starts. But he might get called up next week. It is important to note that might actually have more to do with the no off-days in the schedule than them actually thinking he’s ready. But that’s his big thing right now: if only he walked less, he’d be in St. Louis already.
Tink Hence, RHP – 23 (VEB’s #10 prospect)
Acquired: 2nd round, 63rd overall in 2020 draft
Stats: 18 G (3 GS), 20 IP, 20.2 K%, 18.2 BB%, 45.6 GB%, .278 BABIP, 6.64 ERA/6.49 FIP/6.01 xFIP/6.02 DRA
Speaking of inconsistency, Hence has not managed to find a rhythm this year at all. His ERA is updated, but his other stats will get worse because he threw 0.1 IP with a BB and HR allowed yesterday. Moved to the bullpen for what I would have assumed were innings concerns, there are now performance concerns. He seems to be facing an entirely different problem than he has in the past, when it was pretty much purely injury concerns. The good/bad news is that something has changed in his delivery or mechanics. And that’s good news because you change mechanics or delivery back to what it was before. The bad news is that if he never finds it again, he doesn’t have a future MLB career. He’s still just 23.
Tekoah Roby, RHP – 24 (VEB’s #11 prospect)
Acquired: Traded with Thomas Saggese and John King for Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton
Stats: N/A
Roby underwent Tommy John surgery in the middle of last season and is not likely to pitch this season.
Brycen Mautz, LHP – 24 (VEB’s #13 prospect)
Acquired: 2nd round, 59th overall in 2022 draft
Stats: 17 G (16 GS), 22.1 K%, 15.9 BB%, 43.2 GB%, .251 BABIP, 2.92 ERA/4.90 FIP/5.65 xFIP/6.44 DRA
I feel like Mathews has gotten plenty of headlines about how much he has struggled with control, but Mautz is really getting much attention and he’s been worse. He has a good ERA, somehow, but every other stat is not good. He isn’t striking out a lot of hitters and he’s walking a ton of them. The Cardinals are clearly avoiding calling up Mautz – they’ve had chances and they went with journeymen – and looking at these stats, I understand why.
Ixan Henderson, LHP – 23 (VEB’s #16 prospect)
Acquired: 8th round, 2023 draft
Stats (CPX): 2 G, 1.2 IP, 0.0 K%, 23.1 BB%, 28.6 GB%, .500 BABIP, 21.60 ERA/9.60 FIP/11.22 xFIP
So obviously rehab appearances are not about stats, but I would call these numbers concerning. My first instinct is that he’s still not healthy. He could just as easily be rusty. Certainly if his whole rehab goes like this, I would imagine he’s shut down again.
Hunter Dobbins, RHP – 26
Acquired: Traded with Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aitia for Willson Contreras
Stats:13 GS, 62.2 IP, 17.1 K%, 8 BB%, 51.3 GB%, .303 BABIP, 4.16 ERA/4.73 FIP/4.93 xFIP/4.45 DRA
Last season, Dobbins threw just 78.2 IP all year. This year, he’s already at 84 innings. With over two months left to play, I think it’s pretty clear the Cardinals aren’t going to seriously restrict his innings, but I also think they’re trying to do minor stuff here and there to keep his innings lower than his full potential. Because he’s made 18 appearances across both the majors and minors, he’s one start behind all the MLB guys, and he’s thrown 24 less innings than McGreevy, 14 less innings than both May and Pallante, and 4 less innings than Kyle Leahy – who has also made 18 starts, but is making his 19th start tonight. He did throw 125 innings in 2024, so I assume the Cardinals hope he’ll reach that at least.
Pete Hansen, LHP – 25
Acquired: 3rd round pick, 97 overall in 2022 draft
Stats:14 GS, 59 IP, 22.0 K%, 8.5 BB%, 44.8 GB%, .324 BABIP, 4.88 ERA/4.42 FIP/4.53 xFIP/5.42 DRA
I’ll give Pete this: he’s hanging in there. I haven’t really been a believer of his, because he’s always been okay while never being the young guy. He’s never been old for his level necessarily, just a guy posting okay stats at AA at 24-years-old is not going to get my attention. But he’s mostly maintaining his production at each stop. He struck out 21.1% of people in Springfield, so far it’s even gone up a bit. He’s been worse because of the walks, but as you can see with Mautz and Mathews, it’s apparently hard to not walk guys in Memphis and 8.5% is perfectly respectable. While his stats remain okay, this is probably the first time I can squint and see him with an MLB career.
Sem Robberse, RHP – 24 (VEB’s #13 prospect in 2025)
Acquired: Traded with Adam Kloffenstein for Jordan Hicks
Stats (Rehab): 5 GS, 9 IP, 24.3 K%, 0 BB%, 57.7 GB%, .407 BABIP, 6.00 ERA/3.33 FIP/2.53 xFIP
See, now this, this is the kind of performance I want to see in rehab. Who cares about the ERA in 9 IP? He has not walked a single batter and almost everything is being hit on the ground. Great sign. He only threw 14.2 IP last season, so I’m not sure how much they’re going to ramp him up cause obviously it’s going to be pretty easy to beat 14.2 IP with any kind of health.
Mason Molina, LHP – 23
Acquired: Traded with Skylar Hales for Phil Maton
Stats (AA): 14 GS, 69 IP, 28.8 K%, 9.1 BB%, 30.8 GB%, .271 BABIP, 2.87 ERA/3.61 FIP/4.65 xFIP/4.55 DRA
AAA: 2 GS, 8 IP, 33.3 K%, 11.9 BB%, 23.8 GB%, .476 BABIP, 6.75 ERA/3.91 FIP/4.13 xFIP/4.74 DRA
The Cardinals traded two months of Phil Maton and one of the pieces they got back, who had made 7 appearances in High A at the time of the time, is in AAA less than a year later. Here’s some more fun news: Mason Molina was originally drafted by the Brewers, who traded him to the Rangers for Grant Anderson, a perfectly cromulent but whatever reliever. Molina will probably have to get groundballs at some point to be a starter though – not a lot, but he’d allow too many homers with anything lower than 30%.
Ryan Fernandez, RHP – 28
Acquired: Rule 5, 2023 from Red Sox
Stats: 20 G, 22.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 7.5 BB%, 42.2 GB%, .274 BABIP, 4.43 ERA/4.34 FIP/4.08 xFIP/5.12 DRA
Not really stats that make you think he belongs in the big leagues, actually I would describe those stats as good enough for exactly the role he has now – bullpen shuttle reliever.
Hancel Rincon, RHP – 24
Acquired: Internatonal amateur free agent signing of the Dominican Republic in 2019
Stats: 27 G (3 GS), 51.2 IP, 27.1 K%, 11.3 BB%, 46.2 GB%, .304 BABIP, 4.35 ERA/5.05 FIP/4.28 xFIP/4.27 DRA
That’s about as clear-cut of a multi-inning reliever as you’ll get. His three starts were not actually starts, at least not 5 IP starts. He has walked give guys in his two most recent appearances so I don’t think he’s close to getting called up.
Austin Love, RHP – 27
Acquired: 3rd round, 90th overall in 2021 draft
Stats: 12 G, 15 IP, 20.8 K%, 20.8 BB%, 52.3 GB%, .302 BABIP, 7.20 ERA/6.34 FIP/6.33 xFIP/6.77 DRA
Love ended up with not particularly impressive numbers in Springfield despite a fantastic start. The Cardinals promoted him anyway and I guess it shouldn’t be a shock that he has struggled. I was kind of hoping he was going to be an effective reliever, but given his age, it does appear to be a true longshot, despite him being on the door step to the big leagues.
Skylar Hales, RHP – 24
Acquired: Traded with Mason Molina for Phil Maton
Stats: 26 G, 30.1 IP, 23 K%, 13.2 BB%, 52.7 GB%, .389 BABIP, 7.71 ERA/5.55 FIP/4.68 xFIP/5.00 DRA
I got to tell you, sharing the pitching stats are a real bummer. I’m pretty sure the offensive environment is a little bit crazy, so understand that a decent or even seemingly below average looking line is actually fine. But that is not an argument that these are good stats. These are an improvement over his performance last season in AAA, although it’s mostly just because he’s getting a lot of groundballs.
Cade Winquest, RHP – 26
Acquired: 8th round, 2022 draft
Stats: 22 G, 25.2 IP, 29.4 K%, 5.5 BB%, 44.9 GB%, .344 BABIP, 5.96 ERA/3.62 FIP/3.31 xFIP
Well bad news: Winquest got rocked yesterday. I updated the ERA, not the other stats. And the other stats will get worse, mainly because he allowed a homer and didn’t strike anybody out. Good news though is that the K/BB ratio certainly suggests he’s very close to being MLB ready.
Ryan Murphy, RHP – 26
Acquired: Minor League Rule 5, 2025 from Giants
Stats: 19 G, 25.2 IP, 24.2 K%, 14.5 BB%, 56.3 GB%, .353 BABIP, 6.51 ERA/5.80 FIP/4.71 xFIP/4.76 DRA
Murphy is a good example of how an injury can derail a career. Murphy had 11 good starts in AA – albeit a little over 3 innings per start – and then he essentially missed his the rest of that season and the next season (which was mostly spent on rehab appearances). So the Cardinals grabbed him up and ploppped him in the bullpen. And there might be something here with his GB rate being so high.
Springfield (Starters)
Liam Doyle, LHP – 22 (VEB’s #2 prospect)
Acquired: 5th overall pick in the 2025 draft
Stats: 15 GS, 61 IP, 27.4 K%, 13.3 BB%, 33.3 GB%, .340 BABIP 5.31 ERA/4.88 FIP/4.82 xFIP
We probably should have expected some growing pains with Doyle. It was known he needed to work on his secondaries. And sometimes that leads to games like yesterday, when he walked 5 guys and struck out just 3 guys. Yesterday’s stats are not reflected in his FIP or xFIP, so those will be worse when you read this. But he is still missing quite a few bats, balls are maybe falling more often than they would in the majors, and I really don’t think the Cardinals care about Doyle’s specific stats.
Jurrangelo Cjintje, RHP – 23 (VEB’s #5 prospect)
Acquired: Traded with Tai Peete in 3-team trade for Brendan Donovan
Stats: 17 GS, 80.1 IP, 28.2 K%, 11.3 BB%, 40.8 GB%, .288 BABIP, 5.04 ERA/5.26 FIP/4.79 xFIP
Yes, I am aware Cjinjte is now in Memphis. He made his first start for Memphis yesterday, and wasn’t very good, allowing 6 ER in 3.2 IP and more walks than strikeouts. This is really not surprising because his stats at Springfield weren’t very good. So interesting move to promote him. I think the Cardinals are not looking at the same stats we are, or at least he’s doing something they are encouraged by that isn’t necessarily reflected in the stats themselves.
Brandon Clarke, LHP – 22 (VEB’s #9 prospect)
Acquired: Traded with Richard Fitts and Patrick Galle for Sonny Gray
Stats: 2 G, 3 IP, 25 K%, 16.7 BB%, 66.7 GB%, .167 BABIP, 6.00 ERA/4.99 FIP/5.44 xFIP
You would have legitimately no clue that Clarke actually pitched pretty poorly on Saturday, because the attention was rightfully on the fact that he threw 103 mph. But he walked two and struck out 1 of the 7 batters he faced while giving up two runs. It also speaks to the fact that rehab appearances don’t really matter. When the Cardinals deem him ready for Springfield, that’s when I’m going to care that he’s walking more than he’s striking out.
Cooper Hjerpe, LHP – 25 (VEB’s #16 prospect)
Acquired: 1st round, 22 overall in 2022 draft
Stats: 3 GS, 7 IP, 44.1 K%, 20.6 BB%, 41.7 GB%, .400 BABIP, 9.00 ERA/6.08 FIP/3.48 xFIP/3.10 DRA
As good as Hjerpe’s stats are so far…. he is not beating the reliever allegations with them. I’ve pitched it before, but certainly someone who is striking out 44% of batters could probably be an MLB reliever right now. I wouldn’t promote him right now, but I definitely would like to see him get innings in September. I don’t think this is a giving up on starting move – he didn’t throw an inning last season, so I don’t think the Cardinals are going to have him throw more than a few innings per start anyway. If the Cardinals are still in contention, try using him as a lefty weapon out of the bullpen. That’s just my hope.
Chen-Wei Lin, RHP – 24 (VEB’s #11 prospect in 2025)
Acquired: International amateur free agent signing out of Taiwan in 2023
Stats: 17 G (14 GS), 67 IP, 27.3 K%, 13.2 BB%, 52.6 GB%, .331 BABIP, 5.10 ERA/4.53 FIP/4.71 xFIP/5.39 DRA
While these are certainly not what I wuld call good stats, he is striking out 27% of batters while having a greater than 50% GB rate. There’s a starter toolkit here and considering injuries restricted him to 50.1 IP, it’s good to see he has been healthy.
Braden Davis, LHP – 23
Acquired: 5th round, 2024 draft
Stats: 17 GS, 73 IP, 26.5 K%, 14.2 BB%, 41.8 GB%, .315 BABIP, 4.68 ERA/5.13 FIP/5.04 xFIP
I know Chaim Bloom has a reputation for taking things slow with pitchers, but there are kind of lot of pitchers in this system that were seemingly promoted aggressively and who don’t have particularly great stats at that aggressive placement. Davis made 8 total starts last year and missed a lot of bats and missed the strike zone a good amount. If they repeated Davis in High A, I’m sure they were confident he would have good stats, so they wanted to push him. I just kind of get the feeling that the Cardinals don’t want their starters to be too dominant because then they aren’t being challenged enough.
Blake Aitia, RHP – 23
Acquired: Traded with Yhoiker Fajardo and Hunter Dobbins for Willson Contreras
Stats (High A): 14 GS, 57.1 IP, 26.6 K%, 10.3 BB%, 38.6 GB%, .324 BABIP, 3.92 ERA/5.11 FIP/4.84 xFIP/4.27 DRA
AA: 2 G, 12 IP, 17 K%, 4.3 BB%, 33.3 GB%, .200 BABIP, 3.00 ERA/5.09 FIP/4.92 xFIP/6.47 DRA
Davis is followed by another pitcher who honestly proves my point more. It does not feel like Aita gets promoted in an organization that promotes its pitchers too slow. It could be an entirely AAA to majors reputation that Bloom got here. It feels like pitchers are promoted aggressively honestly.
Brandt Thompson, RHP – 23
Acquired: 17th round, 2024 draft
Stats (AA): 12 G (8 GS), 28.8 K%, 9.8 BB%, 46.5 GB%, .323 BABIP, 4.89 ERA/4.11 FIP/3.96 xFIP
AAA: 6 G, 22.1 IP, 15.5 K%, 9.3 BB%, 46.6 GB%, .338 BABIP, 5.64 ERA/4.57 FIP/4.97 xFIP
Thompson is currently in Springfield, hence why he isn’t in the Memphis section. Props to Randy Flores on picking this guy up in the 17th round, regardless of how far he ends up making it, Thompson looks more like a potential MLBer than the vast, vast, vast majority of 17th rounders ever do and that alone makes it a good pick.
And that’s where I’m going to stop. It felt kind of awkward, because I reached the end of Memphis and noticed that covering all of Springfield would actually make this a fairly long post, but I didn’t want to ignore Springfield completely, so today you get the starters, and on Thursday, you get the relievers plus the lower minors. Covering all the bullpen pitchers really adds up. Thankfully, I can pretty much ignore the bullpen guys in the lower minors. So I will get the pitching section finished on Thursday.
