Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 22 at 4:00 p.m. ET
- Network: FOX
- Location: TDECU Stadium — Houston, TX
- Spread: Houston (-1.5)
- Over/under: 54.5
- All-time series: Houston leads, 14-13
- Last meeting: Houston 30, TCU 19 — October 4, 2024
- Current streak: Houston, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Houston (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) and TCU (6-4, 3-4 Big 12) are warming up to one another as Big 12 opponents. The Texas-based teams collide on the gridiron for the third-straight season, and since sharing the league together, the road team is 2-0. The Horned Frogs won the last meeting in TDECU Stadium in 2023, but the Cougars manufactured an upset in Fort Worth in 2024 to snap TCU’s 9-game win streak in the series.
Right now, Houston enters with a No. 25 ranking in the AP Poll and a No. 23 from the College
Football Playoff committee. The Cougars look to stay alive for an outside shot at the Big 12 title game, while TCU aims to snap a 2-game losing skid.
TCU Horned Frogs outlook
TCU started the year strong and quickly navigated into the rankings, looking the part as Big 12 contenders. Ever since squandering a 17-0 lead to Arizona State, the Horned Frogs’ season has flipped upside down. They’re 3-4 in their last seven with close wins over Colorado, Baylor, and West Virginia, and they’re fresh off their lowest point in the season — a 44-13 shellacking to BYU in Provo.
The Horned Frogs have a shot to put their recent struggles in the past and generate their highest-quality conference win of the year. Some adversity will need to be overcome as the team lacks starting running back Kevorian Barnes and veteran ballhawking safety Bud Clark, who are both ruled out on the injury report. Still, there’s plenty of talent exhibited throughout Sonny Dykes’ team, as evidenced during their dominant 3-0 start.
More often that not, the presence of quarterback Josh Hoover will provide TCU an opportunity to win on any given gameday. The junior who set the program’s all-time passing record in 2024 ranks ninth in the FBS in passing yards, armed with four 300+ yard performances and five 3+ touchdown delivery orders on the year. BYU’s assertive defense held him under 20 completions and under 200 yards for the first time this year, and Hoover eyes a bounce-back to his September and October dominance in this late-season conference clash.
One reason the Horned Frogs’ passing attack is often so effective is the presence of star receiver Eric McAlister. Ranked first in the Big 12 and sixth in the FBS in receiving yards, McAlister can take over a game as well as any receiver in the country. He has five 100-yard outings this year — including three-straight — notably dicing up SMU’s secondary in Week 4 with 254 yards and three touchdowns. A fellow downfield playmaker in Jordan Dwyer and longtime Houston Cougar receiver Joseph Manjack IV make up TCU’s main trio of targets in this pass-heavy offense.
Without Barnes in the run game, TCU turns to a stable of backs such as Trent Battle, Jeremy Payne, and Jon Denman. The Horned Frogs only surpassed 115 rushing yards once in Big 12 play, and that was the Oct. 18 game against Baylor when it ran for 196 and scored 42. The run success is correlated with the scoring, and the Frogs are managing just 17.7 points per game in their last three contests, plagued by struggles at the line of scrimmage.
TCU does a great job stopping the run though, limiting opponents to 3.4 yards per carry and 127 yards per game. The Horned Frogs are 5-0 when holding FBS teams under 130 rushing yards and 0-4 otherwise, showing this facet’s influence on their results. The corps of inside backer Namdi Obiazor and outside backers Kaleb Elarms-Orr and Devean Deal play a vital role in containing the ground. Elarms-Orr leads the team with 99 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and four sacks, while Obiazor has 67 tackles and Deal 7.0 tackles for loss.
The Horned Frogs aren’t as formidable against the passing game, ranking 112th nationally in fewest aerial yards allowed. However, the remedy to this is interceptions, and TCU gets a bunch of those. However, without Bud Clark and his four interceptions to contribute, the Horned Frogs will rely on other sources to force turnovers. One is fellow safety Jamel Johnson who has 78 tackles and four picks on the year. Another is Kylin Jackson, who should play an expanded role without Clark available.
Houston Cougars outlook
Houston is ranked by the College Football Playoff committee for the first time since 2021 and for the first time since joining the Big 12. The Cougars defeated a pair of 7-3 Big 12 opponents in Arizona and Arizona State to highlight the résumé in a breakout year two under Willie Fritz.
Houston has taken on the role as the ultimate road warriors, faring 5-0 in opposing habitats this year. But the Cougars’ success doesn’t necessarily translate to TDECU Stadium, where they suffered a stunning upset to West Virginia last time suiting up in their home base.
Prior to that West Virginia game, Houston ranked third in the FBS in fewest turnovers at four on the season. In the last two weeks alone, the Cougars committed eight turnovers, although they were able to withstand the miscues and knock off UCF on Nov. 7. Ball security was a major impetus behind Houston’s stellar start, and keeping the ball out of harm’s way will be essential against a frequent turnover producer like TCU.
Houston’s offense moves best when it finds success in the run game, especially through quarterback Conner Weigman. The Cougars are 4-0 vs. Big 12 opponents when their starting QB attains 80 rushing yards, and he combined for -20 in the team’s two losses. Designed quarterback runs are commonplace in Slade Nagle’s offense, and Houston also looks to ignite tailback Dean Connors (team-high 725 rushing yards) on his senior day. Connors is a major reason for Houston’s red zone success, and the Cougars are eighth in the country with points on 94.1 percent of trips inside the 20.
When the Cougars throw, there are two primary targets. Tight end Tanner Koziol, a candidate for the Mackey Award, has 56 receptions to lead all FBS players at his position. Koziol’s size and catch radius make him an ideal third down and red zone threat, serving as a walking mismatch for smaller defenders. When the Cougars aim for more explosive passing plays, the option is oftentimes Amare Thomas. The wide receiver wields a team-high 737 yards and eight touchdowns on 45 receptions, fresh off his third 100-yard outing of the season.
Houston defeated TCU last season primarily due to a commanding defense, and despite a new coordinator and a revamped depth chart, that unit remains a strength of this Cougar team. Houston is 39th in total defense, surrendering 333 yards per game. The balance is there, as the Cougars share similar above average ranks in run defense and pass defense.
What makes this Houston defense incredibly unique is its leading tackler. Defensive tackle Carlos Allen, at 6’1”, 295 pounds, ranks atop the team with 67 stops — a rarity for a player of his position and size. Allen has been a consistent force in the run game, wrapping up ball carriers for six tackles for loss. Another force on the Cougars’ d-line is lead pass rusher Eddie Walls III. The FIU transfer has a team-high 5.5 sacks and 8.5 TFLs, creating plenty of havoc up front on a weekly basis.
The Cougars struggled to generate turnovers lately, only securing one interception in a 6-game stretch prior to facing UCF. But that dry spell was finally bucked in Orlando as Latreveon McCutchin came up with an athletic pick-six and Kentrell Webb secured the game-sealing interception in the end zone. Houston hopes this remains contagious, and it will receive plenty of opportunities against a TCU team that attempts 36.5 passes per game.
Prediction
Last year’s Houston vs. TCU game unfolded in unexpected fashion, as a 4-8 Cougar team handled the 9-4 Horned Frogs on the road by double-digits. There could be some unpredictability in this one, but things you can expect to see are as follows — (1) Houston’s run defense should contain TCU’s ground attack quite effectively, (2) the Horned Frogs will see a productive performance from the Josh Hoover to Eric McAlister connection, and (3) Houston’s passing game should see more success than usual, with either Tanner Koziol or Amare Thomas stuffing the stat sheet.
Operating against sturdy fronts, the lack of run game success from both teams should keep this somewhat low-scoring. But Houston pulls ahead thanks to its advantage against TCU’s secondary, emerging in a close call for its ninth win.
Prediction: Houston 27, TCU 20
