Vegas considers UNC to be a 12 point underdog on Saturday. That’s to one of the worst Clemson teams in the past 20 years, based on results so far. We get them at home, yet Vegas thinks Clemson easily beats
the product assembled by our $10 million-a-year coach with 6 Super Bowl rings.
In other words, outside opinion on the Belichick experiment has gone from preseason excitement, to post-TCU “raised eyebrow,” and now to bye week “shaking my head.” A competitive loss to Clemson would actually improve outside perceptions. A win would shock them.
Coaches love to say that outside noise doesn’t matter, and relative to game prep, it doesn’t and shouldn’t. However, perceptions do matter a great deal when it comes to recruiting elite high school players. They matter when it comes to attracting top transfers. They matter when it comes to finding better staff. They matter when it comes to earning prime TV slots and drawing eyeballs. Interest impacts ratings, which impact ACC revenue distribution. For college programs, perceptions frame potential.
Supporters pushing Belichick’s hire cited those dynamics prominently as reasons to believe Belichick would take UNC football to a better place. Carolina bought a brand as well as hired a coach, a combination explicitly lauded as a game-changer for UNC football. Unfortunately, watching Belichick’s team lose by a combined score of 82-23 to TCU and UCF currently has that dynamic operating in reverse. The Belichick-sized spotlight on bad football sets up a dangerous worst-case scenario. How, you ask?
The Doom Loop
Belichick and the power brokers who engineered his hiring underestimated the extent to which his celebrity could be a force multiplier for failure just as easily as it could for success. Celebrity media culture builds people up and tears them down with equal pleasure. That’s what it does; that’s why it exists. The spectacle of Belichick, legendary media curmudgeon, failing at “football coach” creates clicks and sells ads. Bemoaning the behavior of audiences who crave it and media outlets who feed it changes nothing.
To make matters even worse on that front, Jordon Hudson seems to deliberately poke that beast. There’s no other way to spin her and Bill’s Us Weekly cover or her social media activity, among other anecdotes. It’s clear at this point that she relishes the opportunities for attention inherent in her relationship with Bill and in turn his relationship with UNC. I’m not suggesting that’s the only thing she sees in Bill. Still, her public efforts contribute to the vulture media dynamic now hovering over Belichick and the program.
Winning would absolutely counter all of that. Winning’s the ultimate shield in that world. Losing competitive games would at least mitigate it. However, losing exacerbates it, big time. That’s why exiting October the same way UNC football enters would be a disaster beyond win-loss record or bowl qualification. UNC football and Belichick would become just another content carcass feeding the vultures, a doom loop of negative nonsense heading into December’s crucial “roster reset” period. “Come play for the greatest coach ever” would lose most of its luster. The Bill Belichick brand would be well on its way to punchline rather than asset. At some point, doom loops pass a point of no return. A poor October would make recovery to that “33rd NFL team” dream almost impossible.
All that said… UNC football has a real opportunity to end October in a much better place than it enters.
First, UNC plays all of one football game between September 20 and October 17. Bye weeks precede and follow the Clemson game. That’s a lot of practice time to go back to the drawing board on some things. Now the staff has four games worth of tape to better understand what each player can do and how the pieces might fit together. Depth charts and schemes can be reshuffled. Play designs can be tweaked. Coordinators can install more complexity. If the September disaster amounted to the equivalent of a NFL preseason, with a bye week at the end to reassess everything, then Clemson is a real chance to start the season anew.
Second, Clemson has shown exploitable flaws on offense, defense, and special teams. A win isn’t required to reset the way people see Bill Belichick UNC football. A competitive game in which UNC lands some punches and has a path to victory late, however, is. Show the world a team that looks much sharper and more dangerous than the one that one looked so helpless against TCU and UCF. Even better, win.
Third, the schedule presents clear opportunity after the 2nd bye. California proved incapable of scoring a single point against San Diego State. Syracuse lost its starting QB for the season, and even with Angeli, the Orange had to go to OT to survive UConn. Stanford currently ranks as one of the weakest P4 teams, neck and neck with Oklahoma State and Northwestern for that dubious honor. NC State just lost to Virginia Tech, who fired their coach after getting mauled by Old Dominion. Wake had its moments against Georgia Tech and NC State, but also couldn’t close the deal in either game. All those games are very winnable for a well-coached football team.
Virginia’s and Duke’s offenses do look like serious problems. On the other hand, that’s not due to those units boasting elite NFL talents at QB or the skill positions. A coach with 6 Super Bowl rings and a reputation as a defensive genius should be able to dial up some wrinkles to at least slow them down, shouldn’t he?
All that adds up to ample opportunity to generate real momentum heading into December’s early signing period and the new “one shot at it” transfer window. Finishing the season far stronger than it started signals that Belichick remains a coaching force. That signal would attract talent to the program, both on and off the field.
It all remains within Belichick’s grasp. We’ll find out if it remains within his ability.
Go Heels!
