As of this morning, the NCAA Tournament picture looks like this, based on NPI and conference standings. Please note that projected conference tournament winners are in italics and are based on current in-conference point percentage:
Locks (9): Michigan State, Michigan, North Dakota, Western Michigan, Penn State, Providence, Quinnipiac, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver
Safe (3): Cornell, Dartmouth, Boston College
Bubble In (2): Wisconsin, UConn
Automatic Qualifiers (2): St. Thomas, Bentley
My projected bracket
looks like this:
Worcester Regional
- Michigan State vs. Bentley
- Minnesota-Duluth vs. Cornell
Loveland Regional
- Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin
- Penn State vs. Denver
Albany Regional
- Michigan vs. St. Thomas
- Quinnipiac vs. Boston College
Sioux Falls Regional
- North Dakota vs. UConn
- Providence vs. Dartmouth
Some things to note here:
- Denver is currently in the 8/9 pod and is the host of the Loveland regional. If the Pioneers cannot move up in the NPI, the committee has to choose one of two routes. The first option is to maintain the straight 1-16 seeding model by assigning No. 1 overall seed Michigan State to Loveland. The second option is to move Denver into another bracket, thus assigning the Loveland regional to a different pod of teams. The latter seems like the more likely option right now.
- Penn State has been at No. 5 for what feels like two months now, but Providence has narrowed the gap. If the Nittany Lions slip up against Notre Dame, they could fall, although avoiding red-hot Denver would not be the worst thing in the world.
- Minnesota-Duluth has moved up to lock status with a road sweep over Miami. All that remains for the Bulldogs in the regular season is a home series against Colorado College.
- Boston College scored two wins over UConn last weekend- one in regulation and one in overtime- to move up to safe. The Huskies suddenly find themselves on the bubble with four games left.
- The CCHA is likely to only get one team in the field. St. Thomas leads the conference, but with the Tommies down to No. 15, they are unlikely to get an at-large bid should they fail to win the conference tournament.
- Wisconsin split with Michigan to take a bit of pressure off themselves. A split against Penn State and a win in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament would likely be enough to secure a spot.
Key Games This Weekend
No. 3 North Dakota at No. 4 Western Michigan- Friday (7pm) and Saturday (7pm)
- Western Michigan has to win both games in regulation to win the NCHC regular season title. The Broncos would also separate from Penn State for the final No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. North Dakota needs just two points to clinch the title.
No. 7 Quinnipiac at No. 11 Dartmouth- Friday (7pm on ESPN+)
- The top two teams in the ECAC will battle it out on Friday. Dartmouth needs a win in regulation to stay alive for the ECAC regular season title, though a win would be even more valuable toward securing the program’s first NCAA Tournament berth since 1980.
No. 12 Boston College vs. Boston University- Friday at BU (7pm on ESPN+), Saturday at BC (7pm on ESPN+)
- One of the most storied rivalries in the sport renews again this weekend. Boston University has already been eliminated from at-large contention, but I am sure the Terriers would not mind playing spoiler. Boston College has been red-hot in 2026 to put themselves in strong position to clinch an NCAA bid, but the journey is not done just yet.
