The Dallas Mavericks might be playing with lottery fire. Every few games they have a key result that risks their positioning in a bottlenecked cluster in the top ten. Last week it was a win against the Portland Trail Blazers on a night those around them lost.
We should take a moment and pause — positioning ultimately decides nothing. The story will only be fully told when the lottery order is decided in a draw on Sunday May, 10. Go back 12 months and look at teams like the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards,
and New Orleans Pelicans who all positioned themselves better than the Mavericks and ultimately they fell back three and four spots. So sweating game to game results too closely isn’t productive. But in the event the Mavericks do get bumped backward in May, being nearest to the top will help pad the fall.
Here at Lottery Watch we’re doing the unproductive thing. We’re looking at the weekly results and measuring where the Mavericks will land as the season comes to a close and as the organization looks to this summer to find Cooper Flagg’s future running mate.
Lottery standings
The Mavericks went 1-2 last week, and face a shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves squad Monday night. No matter the opponent Dallas plays hard every night, even as the accumulate losses, and flirt with stealing some surprising wins. They find themselves currently tied for sixth in the lottery standings with the New Orleans Pelicans, 3.5 games behind the Utah Jazz — which is likely an impossible gap to make up with so few games.
Where they’re certainly looking is behind them, where the Memphis Grizzlies sit just one game behind the tie, after a dramatic near-loss-but-somehow-surprising-win to the Chicago Bulls. Dallas has a marginally tougher schedule over Memphis. But notably the New Orleans Pelicans, who once again have no incentive to lose (owe their pick to the Atlanta Hawks), has the fifth easiest remaining schedule. Something will eventually have to give…that or we all bite our nails until May 10. Probably the latter.
Weekly schedule
The Mavericks play most of their games at home this week (14-23 this season), with one game on the road to face the hobbled Milwaukee Bucks, who are currently just behind Memphis in the lottery standings. This is one of those weeks where the hustle-heavy Mavericks could grab a win or two.
The Pelicans don’t play until Thursday, and also have some winnable games on their slate, while Memphis ay have opportunity to move up in the standings.
- Dallas Mavericks: vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, @ Milwaukee Bucks, vs. Orlando Magic, vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- New Orleans Pelicans: @ Portland Trail Blazers, @ Sacramento Kings, vs. Orlando Magic
- Memphis Grizzlies: vs. Phoenix Suns, vs. New York Knicks, vs. Toronto Raptors, @ Milwaukee Bucks
One magic spin
Each week we’ll take one spin around the block at tankathon.com and see where the chips fall. This week the Mavericks move back into the top four after losing out on last week’s spin. And in a “no one cares about this witchcraft but me” scenario the Atlanta Hawks jump to first FOR THE SIXTH WEEK IN A ROW. They have gone 6-of-6 in this series. Demons.
This week’s simulation really drives the point home on positioning not guaranteeing anything but it does pad the fall back.
