I said yesterday when I was writing that saying something negative about a player whether about on or off the field issues is the least fun I do here. The second least fun thing here is being right. My humanity and compassion just barely loses out to my fandom and my competitiveness. I’m sorry to see Jameson Taillon go so abruptly. It is absolutely the right decision, but I’ll never cheer a guy who played and worked hard and was a credit to the jersey losing his job. It’s tough. I solemnly wish there
wasn’t so much angle shooting in life. I’m fairly certain without it, there would be a mechanism where you could send Jamo back to Arizona away from the lights of the big team and maybe try to figure something out. In this very specific instance, there’s probably no way he could find his way back, but maybe earlier in the year, there was.
No crying over spilled milk, though. Or the show must go on. Find your cliche and move along. The Cubs moved along to St. Louis and the bats didn’t stop hitting. That’s 25 runs over the last three games and 62 over their last nine. This is now six wins in 10 games since the break. Any way you slice it, the team is playing pretty well. That’s three wins in four games to start the trip. This was the first game on that trip that Fangraphs’ models had the Cubs as the more likely winner. But you still always feel good winning another game on the road.
Perspective check: four teams with more wins than the Cubs and one with as many. The Cubs are now 3.5 games ahead of the Phillies for the first NL Wild Card spot. For what it’s worth, the Cubs gained a game on the Brewers and are now six back. The Cubs are on pace for 91.7 wins. They are 3-1 to start this 17 straight game stretch. The Cardinals are further in to a longer gauntlet and their stretch is going poorly.
It would be terrific if the Cubs were able to capitalize on that and win three of four. It might convince the Cardinals to consider at least a minor sell off of talent. There are presently eight teams with as many wins as the Cardinals and two others with as many. They are in that spot where simply winning even say 31 of their final 56 only gets them to 84 wins and it just might not be enough in a strong National League. They probably need a stretch where they win 15 of 20 at some point. It’s hard to imagine them selling, but it would be great to nudge them towards thinking about it.
For the Cubs, they need to be adding talent, particularly pitching. I would not complain about replacing one of the two back of the roster bats with a veteran presence if the price is right for a bench bat. Just because last year’s deadline addition went so badly doesn’t mean you don’t take another shot if there is a low cost bat/glove with some potential and experience. There’s not a lot of playing time, but a complementary player to Michael Conforto would have some value.
With a long day of travel ahead, let’s start looking at some numbers from another Cub victory, number 60 on the year.
Three Positives and Pete:
- Alex Bregman with a four hit day that included a homer and a pair of doubles. He scored three times and drove in two. Season line at .241/.336/.369 (wRC+ 99). The average and on base can at least see his career numbers on the horizon. His slug is still WAY off and he’s a career wRC+ 130.
- Nico Hoerner also had four hits. In Nico fashion, three of them were singles. One was a homer. He drove in four and scored two. His season line is up to .254/.317/.349 (wRC+ 87). He can see all of his numbers on the horizon and is only a career 100 wRC+
- David Peterson was one out short of a quality start. He allowed three hits, two walk and two runs, one of those runs scoring after he was lifted.
- Pete has been human since the break. He still drew two walks and had one plate appearance where he appeared to get pretty frustrated when a close call was made in error. I’m going to go out on a very large limb and predict he has at least one big game this weekend. You just can’t keep him down for long.
Game 106, July 27: Cubs 7, Cardinals 3 (60-46)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.242). 4-5, HR, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 4 R
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.171). 4-5, HR, 4 RBI, 2 R
- Sidekick: David Peterson (.169). 5.2 IP, 22 BF, 3 H, 2 BB, 2 R, 3 K (W 3-1)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Michael Busch (-.107). 0-5
- Goat: Gavin Hollowell (-.102). 0.1 IP, 3 BF, 2 H, R
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.054). 0-3, 2 BB
WPA Play of the Game: Jose Fermin’s solo homer in the second inning with two outs cut the Cub lead to one. (.104)
Cubs Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s solo homer in the third inning restored the lead to two. (.103)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 105 Winner: Dansby Swanson received 30 off 55 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +22
- Alex Bregman
- Carson Kelly/Ben Brown +13.5
- Shōta Imanaga +12
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Dansby Swanson/Phil Maton -10
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Caleb Thielbar -14
Up Next: Game two of the four-game set and game five of the 17-game stretch. Colin Rea (7-7, 4.85) makes the start for the Cubs. Rea has lost both of his starts since the break and has allowed seven runs in 11 innings in doing so. He did not face the Cardinals earlier this year.
Hunter Dobbins started the game after Matthew Liberatore last week, but he pitched in relief on Monday. So MLB.com doesn’t show a starter. Fangraphs shows Michael McGreevy. McGreevy has an ugly 4-8 record but a pretty 3.07 ERA (114.1 IP). He lost his last start, allowing four runs in 6.1 innings against the Diamondbacks in St Louis. The 18th overall pick by the Cardinals in 2018 hasn’t faced the Cubs yet this year.
Another tough pitching matchup on paper. But let’s face it, if pitching matchups alone determined baseball games, this team would be nowhere near 60 wins. Offense and defense matter too. Let’s go steal another one.
