After reigning supreme over both of the 2024 WNBA Finals participants in the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, the Phoenix Mercury have undoubtedly proven that they have enough juice to win a championship.
Despite their team success, Phoenix hasn’t seen the consistent offensive output that they’ve come to expect from their three-headed monster. As she’s done time and time again in her 11-year career, Alyssa Thomas has cleaned up the mess.
Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally resemble traditional playoff risers more than the range-challenged Thomas. However, Thomas has braced the Mercury alone through uncomfortable tides of inconsistency from her co-stars. In eight playoff games, Copper has only made more than five shots twice. Sabally had an infamously embarrassing 2-for-17 shooting performance in Game 1 against New York, and while rediscovering her form, has still only shot above 50 percent once this postseason. Thomas has always been the best of the “Big 3,” but she’s being called upon more than usual to carry a direct offensive load—and she’s answering the call.
Thomas is a perennial above average scorer, capable of scaling towards elite when necessary. All of her major stats take significant leaps in the playoffs, none more notable than her scoring. Through Phoenix’s two playoff series, her 15 points per game regular season average has been amplified to a loud 19. Not only is her aggressive, downhill mentality encouraged to a greater extent, but Phoenix has also streamlined their playbook to put AT at the forefront of their attack.
Even lacking quantitative evidence, it’s easy to point to Phoenix’s inverted middle ball-screen as their “go-to” set when they need a bucket. Thomas idles between the free-throw line and top of the key until a guard, usually whoever has the worst defender on them, sprints into a left side ball screen to force a switch. Frequent defensive miscommunications have also allowed the screening guard, often Sami Whitcomb, to scramble out for a catch and shoot 3 against a lagging defender.
It’s a potent action, but by no means a complex one. Both the Liberty and the Lynx saw significant improvement in their coverage between the opener of their series and the finale. Whether repping Indiana or Las Vegas, any responsible coaching staff will have a full coverage plan in place for Thomas’ favorite play. There’s little doubt that it will work a few times per game, but Phoenix can’t live and die by trying to force switches.
That means an overwhelming story to watch in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on Friday will be Thomas versus whoever stands in her way. Will it be the Las Vegas Aces’ A’ja Wilson or Indiana Fever’s Aliyah Boston?
Wilson or Boston?
There is no easy matchup awaiting Thomas in the Finals.
If Indiana advances, she’ll face a two-time NCAA Naismith Defensive Player of the Year in Boston, who has proven to be one of the most physical post defenders in her first few years in the WNBA. If Las Vegas wins, four-time MVP and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Wilson needs no introduction. Some teams put ancillary forwards on Thomas so that their true post can matchup with Natasha Mack, but both Indiana and Las Vegas have enough size to keep Mack off the boards. AT will surely see different matchup looks, but expect a boatload of “star vs. star” reps. Neither Wilson nor Boston will erase Thomas defensively, but both look to challenge her from unique angles.
Wilson gives up weight and muscle to the Engine, but her wingspan and reactive twitch allows her to recover from bumps and spike shots into the crowd that she should have had no business blocking. She’s quick on her feet, allowing the Aces to avoid switches that they would have to concede if deploying a slow-footed defensive post. She will take the occasional play off effort-wise (who doesn’t?), but her ability to re-engage herself in big moments and mentally dominate her opponents after highlight plays is unmatched. Thomas’ 2025 statlines against the Aces are as follows:
- August 21st (Loss): 17 points (40 percent from the field), 6 assists, 11 rebounds, 3 turnovers
- August 15th (Loss): 15 points (55 percent from the field), 9 assists, 6 rebounds, 3 turnovers
- June 29th (Loss): 16 points (50 percent from the field), 8 assists, 7 rebounds, 3 turnovers
- June 15th (Win): 14 points (64 percent from the field), 13 assists, 6 rebounds, 7 turnovers
Looking to the alternative semifinal outcome, Boston outweighs Thomas by nearly 20 pounds, allowing her to hold her ground against AT’s bull rush. Boston’s agility isn’t poor but certainly isn’t her strong suit, and she’s more comfortable guarding a straight post-up rather than having to slide her feet against a Thomas drive from the perimeter. Against most non-shooting bigs, you can give them space and meet them inside the arc if they drive. Unfortunately for Boston, Thomas is the best passer in the WNBA. Every inch of space she’s afforded could end up being a passing lane for her next back-breaking assist. Boston also has a slight foul problem, and getting too handsy could cost her valuable court time. Thomas’ 2025 statlines against the Fever are as follows:
- September 2nd (Win): 23 points (53 percent from the field), 9 assists, 9 rebounds, 6 turnovers
- August 7th (Win): 18 points (67 percent from the field), 10 assists, 11 rebounds, 2 turnovers
- July 30th (Loss): 32 points (64 percent from the field), 7 assists, 15 rebounds 8 turnovers
The numbers suggest a few trends. Most notably, the Mercury lost three of four games against Las Vegas this season, while only losing one to Indiana. In each game against Wilson, Thomas scored, rebounded and assisted in line with her season averages. She was reasonably involved for her own standards, but not a game-breaking threat. Against Boston, she scored and rebounded significantly above her averages, and shot at a much more efficient clip. She also turned the ball over much more frequently, which doesn’t necessarily suggest a huge trend of carelessness, but rather that she had the ball in her hands a lot more. Both the game results and Thomas’ statistical performances suggest that she can impact the game at a much more consistent level against Boston and the Fever.
There are many worlds in which Alyssa Thomas doesn’t have to be the most important player in the 2025 WNBA Finals. Sabally and Copper have put the team on their own backs in many moments throughout the season, and the Mercury have no shortage of experience. However, there are an equal amount of worlds in which the Finals could come down to Thomas’ performance. With two of the league’s most physical interior defenders fighting for the right to stare down Thomas, she should be ready for war.
