Regardless of Sunday’s outcome, the Astros will enter September with a division lead. With how this season started and the sheer number of injuries, I wasn’t expecting that development. However, this team caught fire in June, before the effects of those absences piled up in July and August, which gave this team enough of a margin to hold on — for now.
This roster is, thankfully, healthier than it has been in months. While some notable players remain on the IL — notably Jake Meyers, Isaac Paredes,
and Josh Hader — there is enough here where you can see this club still clinching a postseason berth, barring a notable collapse.
A 91.8% chance of qualifying for the postseason is a strong position to be in entering September. Whether they’ll make the postseason by winning the AL West or through the Wild Card remains a question, though.
However, I am unsure what to expect from the Astros if the season extends into October. The hope with the lineup, especially if Yordan Alvarez is effective, is that they can find some semblance of improved run scoring. Of the bottom ten teams in run scoring on the season, Houston has the highest batting average (.253). For as flawed as batting average is by itself in analysis, this discrepancy is worth pointing out. In the postseason, you’re typically facing the best pitchers a contending team has to offer. This lineup usually doesn’t have much of an issue generating baserunners; the real problem lies in how they fail to drive them in. Barring a reversal of some season-long trends — again, an effective Alvarez would really help in this regard — it is an issue that could lead to a short postseason appearance.
Incidentally, the starting rotation is in a good spot as one could realistically hope for. Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti looked more like themselves in their most recent starts. Jason Alexander has proven valuable in his brief time on the roster. Then there is Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. Luis Garcia appears close to a return, and Lance McCullers Jr. is an option, albeit likely not among the top five. The bullpen is thin, but moving some arms from the rotation to relief will undoubtedly help. The real question is whether Hader will return, or even be effective, in October.
The Astros can make a deep postseason run if they get hot at the right time, like every other team. We observed that in June and early July, particularly during the stretch of games against the Cubs, Phillies, and Dodgers. But there are enough issues on this roster, even with better health, to cast doubt on how much staying power they have in a three-, five-, or seven-game series.
