Paul Toboni made his first trade of the deadline season, and it was a doozy. He went back to his Red Sox roots and acquired left handed starter Connelly Early for Curtis Mead. This is a swap that makes sense for both teams. The Nats obviously needed more pitching while the Red Sox needed another big bat in their lineup.
This trade was only possible because of
the great development work the Nats did with Mead. Heading into the season, Mead was DFA’d by the White Sox and then traded to the Nats for 6th round senior sign Boston Smith. His career was at a crossroads. However, with the Nats hitting staff, Mead turned himself into a 134 wRC+ bat with power, patience and bat to ball skills.
Mead became a very valuable piece for this Nats team, but as we all know, the Nats need more pitching. That is exactly what they are getting with Early. The 24 year old is already a proven big league starter. In 91.2 innings, Early posted a 3.44 ERA with 93 strikeouts. His FIP of 4.61 is a little bit concerning, but a lot of that had to do with some home run issues.
If Early can get his homer problem under control away from Fenway Park, he will immediately be a quality middle of the rotation starter. Early made his MLB debut last season, and was highly impressive, even making a playoff start for the Red Sox. That meant the southpaw was a borderline top 50 prospect heading into the season but quickly graduated. On paper, he is exactly what the Nats need.
Early has a pitching style that I really enjoy. He is your modern day crafty lefty. Instead of throwing 90 MPH though, Early averages 94 on his 4-seam and 92.4 on his sinker. He also has a deep mix beyond those two pitches with a changeup, a curveball, a slider and a sweeper.
In the minors, Early’s changeup was known as his best pitch. However, it has gotten more middling results this season. That is a big reason why Early has been much more successful against lefties than righties. On the season, righties are hitting .252 against him, while lefties only manage a .194 average.
Despite not being a particularly hard thrower by today’s standards, Early gets a lot of strikeouts. On the season he has over a strikeout an inning which is very impressive. He also does a solid job of getting ground balls with his sinker, something the Nats may get him to lean into more.
One wrinkle in this whole situation is that Early is injured at the moment. It was actually in his start against the Nats where the lefty had an injury scare. This was overshadowed by the Willson Contreras vs Cade Cavalli showdown, but Early left that game with elbow inflammation.
However, his recovery has been going well, and there does not seem to be any long term problem here. He threw off a mound on Friday, so he should be back some time next month. When Early does come back, he will provide a massive boost to this rotation, whether that is as a number 3 starter behind Cavalli and Griffin or as a Griffin replacement.
There have been a lot of reports about selling and buying, and that is exactly what this is. Losing Mead is a big blow to the offense. However, what we got back was not prospects, instead we got a plug and play middle of the rotation starter.
Even though the trade makes a ton of sense for the Nats, I will still miss Curtis Mead. He became one of my favorite players on the team, with his rock solid approach and clutch hitting. When the Nats needed a big hit, Mead was one of the guys you wanted at the plate. For Red Sox fans, here is Mead hitting a homer off of Yankees ace Cam Schlittler.
Mead should be a great fit in Boston. His pull heavy attack should mesh very well with the Green Monster. I am not totally sure where Mead is going to play for Boston, but I’m sure Craig Breslow has a plan. Second base seems like it could be a fit for him in Boston.
One other fun thing with Early is that he is at least a somewhat local product. He grew up outside of Richmond in Midlothian. Early also went to UVA, after transferring there from Army. He was one of Paul Toboni’s big draft successes, being picked in the 5th round before quickly rising through the ranks. The Red Sox helped him gain a good deal of velocity.
Overall, I like the trade for the Nats. Losing Mead sucks, and swapping Mead for Brady House hurts the offense. However, Early is exactly what this team needs. We have been crying out for pitching, and now we have a young, controllable arm. Welcome to DC Connelly Early. I think he is a guy who will be here for the long haul.
