The Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers face off on Sunday night in a litmus test game for both franchises. Though the Panthers are 1-2 and the Lions are 2-1, both teams are very much considered a competitor for their respective divisions, and both are looking for a defining win to silence some of the doubters.
The Lions are currently 3.5-point favorites according to FanDuel Sportsbook, but this one could be even closer than that. Let’s break down the matchup in this week’s On Paper statistical breakdown,
preview, and prediction of Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers
Note: We are throwing away all 2025 data. Everything listed below represents 2026 only, unless otherwise stated.
Lions pass offense (12th) vs. Panthers pass defense (16th)
Through the first three weeks of the season, I expressed a healthy amount of optimism for the Lions’ passing attack given the incredible consistency they’ve shown over the last three years. They’ve rewarded that trust with one of the most efficient passing attacks in football thus far. Through three weeks, the Lions rank:
- Third in passer rating (116.1)
- 10th in yards per attempt (7.4)
- Sixth in dropback EPA (0.286)
- Fifth in success rate (53.2%)
Behind Jared Goff, this remains a top-10 passing attack that’s on the border of a top-five unit. The one thing they have been missing thus far is explosive plays. Through three games, the Lions have just nine passes of 20 yards or more, ranking 14th in the league. In each of the last four seasons, they’ve finished top-five in that statistical category. But teams are playing deep-shells against them and Detroit hasn’t found a way to pierce that coverage. Goff has just three passing attempts with 20 or more air yards (one completion), which is tied with Sam Darnold for the least in the NFL.
The good news is that pass protection has been stellar so far for Detroit. Goff has faced a pressure rate of 32.2% (seventh lowest), has a sack rate of 6.0% (15th), while the offense line ranks second in pass-block win rate (60%), but 20th in PFF pass blocking grade.
It’s hard to get a firm grasp on the Panthers’ pass defense. In Week 1, the Bears’ offense was just all over them, but they held their next two opponents relatively in check—although neither are the most explosive passing attacks in football. Through three weeks, the stats are inconclusive:
- Sixth in passer rating allowed (79.0)
- Sixth in yards per attempt (6.1)
- 11th in dropback EPA (0.004)
- 18th in success rate (46.8%)
The first two data points are promising, but the last two may fall closer to reality given that the Panthers have faced two mediocre-at-best passing offenses—and have mostly seen the damage done on the ground .
The main talking point about the Panthers’ passing defense has been the loss of their two starting cornerbacks this week. Both Mike Jackson and Jaycee Horn were placed on IR this week, leaving Will Lee and Akayleb Evans to step in. Admittedly, both players have flashed at time and won’t be pushovers, but they still represent significant downgrades.
Carolina’s pass rush is better on paper than in practice thus far. Free agent defensive end addition Jaelan Phillips (12 pressures, 2.0 sacks) is an outstanding player, as is veteran defensive tackle Derrick Brown (six pressures), yet the overall stats for Carolina’s pass rush are underwhelming. They’re just 21st in pressure rate (24.2%), 19th in sack rate (6.0%), and 23rd in time to pressure (2.70 sec.).
Player to watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Panthers tend to lean heavy on zone and deep coverage—again trying to take away the explosives. So I expect St. Brown to eat over the middle, especially against less-experienced cornerbacks.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. The only way I see the Lions losing this matchup is if the Panthers’ pass rush lives up to its billing finally. Carolina does like to send the extra heat, but Detroit proved they could handle it last week with Goff playing nearly perfect football against the blitz. I’m not sure how the Panthers’ reserve secondary will hold up against the Lions receivers, but it certainly seems like a favorable matchup.
Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Panthers run defense (23rd)
With the sample sizes so small, I am trying to pull back my optimism of the Lions’ rushing attack, but the early signs are very promising. I want to completely throw out Week 2, because of the injuries the Lions were dealing with on the offensive line, but that’s not completely fair.
Still, even with that stinker of a game—in which the Lions also had to abandon the run—the Lions rushing efficiency metrics are optimistic. They rank:
- Ninth in yards per carry (4.4)
- 15th in rush EPA (-0.082)
- Fifth in rush success rate (48.1%)
The only reason for Detroit’s low ranking in EPA is the lack of truly explosive plays. While the Lions have 11 rushes of 10+ yards (t-sixth most), they only have a single run over 20 yards to help skew the data this year.
But the offensive line stats are stellar in the run game. Detroit ranks fifth in PFF run blocking grade (70.6), fifth in adjusted line yards, and fourth in rushing yards before contact per rush (2.06).
This week, you’ve likely heard how bad the Panthers’ run defense is, and to an extent, that is true. However, it’s likely better than you think it is. Their season ranks are:
- 32nd in yards per carry allowed (5.7)
- 18th in rush EPA (-0.090)
- Ninth in success rate (35.6%)
Those last two data points required some extra research, and I discovered the following. For one, the Panthers have been disproportionately impacted by quarterback runs through three games. Of their 580 rushing yards allowed, 25% of that yardage was damage done by mobile quarterbacks. That won’t be an issue this week. They’ve also given up a ton of big rushing plays—allowing five (most) rushes of 20+ yards. In between those splash plays, the Panthers have actually been okay. Not good, but okay.
But one thing they haven’t done well is create negative plays: Carolina sports the second-lowest “stuffed rate” (rushes of 0 yards or less) in football with 8.9%.
Player to watch: Devin Lloyd. Expected to be back after missing a game, Lloyd is the quarterback of the Panthers’ defense. Entering his fifth year and first with the Panthers, Lloyd brings a reputation of being a great all-around linebacker but specifically a stout run defender. He ranked 11th in PFF run defense grade in 2025 (85.2) and ninth in 2024 (84.2).
Advantage: Lions +1.5. This could—and should—be the week the Lions break out a long run. And while I expect the Panthers run defense to be stouter than the numbers suggest, Detroit also has one of the best rushing attacks in football right now, and I don’t think the Panthers are equipped to stop them for four quarters.
Panthers pass offense (15th) vs. Lions pass defense (26th)
Okay, now the bad news.
Bryce Young appears to be taking Year 4 by the horns, and is off to a very strong start. Thus far, the Panthers passing attack ranks:
- 16th in passer rating (95.6%)
- Eighth in yards per attempt (7.7)
- 14th in dropback EPA (0.130)
- 23rd in success rate (44.2%)
Okay, so it’s not the most efficient passing attack in football despite ranking first in passing yards per game.
The fact of the matter is this is a passing offense that is probably below average on a play-to-play basis, but is capable of an explosive play at any moment. This is highlighted by the fact that Carolina ranks just 28th in completion percentage (59.0), but has produced more 20+ yard passing plays (13) than anyone through three games.
Pass protection has been a pretty big issue, with the Panthers allowing a league-high 43.6% pressure rate and seeing that pressure arrive at 2.52 seconds (fifth fastest). They rank 25th in pass block win rate (47%) and 21st in PFF pass blocking grade (63.0). Their ace in the hole, however, is Young’s mobility. He’s done an expert job at managing the pocket and avoiding sacks. Despite allowing the highest pressure rate in football, Carolina’s sack rate is just 5.4%, good for 12th best.
Something to keep an eye on this week is the availability of Jalen Coker. He leads the Panthers in catches (18), yards (222) and receiving touchdowns (2), but is dealing with a quad injury. He sounded optimistic about his chances to play, but the Panthers have a Week 5 bye, so they could play it safe with their top receiver.
Deep breaths. Brave faces.
The Lions pass defense has been terrible. There is no putting lipstick on this pig. The stats can’t really be bent in any sort of positive direction. Detroit ranks:
- 27th in passer rating allowed (110.2)
- 24th in yards per attempt (7.9)
- 29th in dropback EPA (0.245)
- 29th in success rate (53.2%)
It’s ugly out there, folks.
I’d like to say it’s just the explosive plays (16 20+ yard passes allowed, 32nd) that are killing them, but the bottom-four success rate suggests the problems run far deeper. Coverage is clearly the biggest problem, with the Lions sporting the 22nd-best PFF coverage grade (53.7).
If there is hope, it’s in the Lions’ pass rush. Detroit ranks 10th in pressure rate (39.0%), second in time to pressure (2.46 sec.), and second in sacks (12). Their success in getting to the quarterback only makes their struggles everywhere else that much more frustrating.
Player to watch: Tetairoa McMillan. Last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year is off to a decent Year 2. Most notably for this week, of the Panthers’ 13 passing plays of 20+ yards, he has four of them. His size (6-foot-5, 212) should be a problem for Detroit’s relatively short secondary.
Advantage: Panthers +2.5. Because Carolina is inconsistent from down-to-down, I do think the Lions will have opportunities to get off the field early and often. But the explosive play matchup here is a potential nightmare, and I won’t feel comfortable on any third-and-longs.
Panthers run offense (21st) vs. Lions run defense (29th)
It’s been a pretty slow start for the Panthers’ running game after finishing 2025 around the middle of the pack. Through three weeks, the Panthers rank:
- 11th in yards per carry (4.3)
- 23rd in rush EPA (-0.193)
- 24th in rush success rate (35.7%)
There’s nothing flashy or splashy about the Panthers’ running game, as their longest run by a running back this season is just 16 yards. And while Young has been elusive in the pocket, he doesn’t tuck and run very often—he has just three rushing attempts all season.
The offensive line has been part of the problem, and it’ll be without its best piece this week with left guard Damien Lewis expected to be out. The Panthers do rank 10th in adjusted line yards this year and 10th in PFF run blocking grade (66.3), but 28th in run block win rate (71%). They do a good job avoiding negative plays, allowing a stuffed percentage of just 11.9%, sixth best in the league.
The jury is still out on the Lions’ run defense. While they were good in both Weeks 1 and 3, those rushing attacks have proven to be two of the least effective run offenses thus far this season. The Bills game looms large, but that is also the most efficient rushing attack in football right now, so we’ve got some odd and confusing data to parse through.
The season-long data doesn’t provide much clarity, either:
- 21st in yards per carry allowed (4.4)
- 31st in rush EPA (0.045)
- 18th in success rate (40.6)
Without a doubt, the Bills performance (0.330 EPA, 58.6% success rate) is dragging them down, but I’m not entirely sure we can just toss it out. It’s just too early to tell.
Player to watch: Christian Izien. One of the biggest changes in performances between Weeks 2 and 3 was the play of strong safety Christian Izien. Detroit struggled to be gap sound on the perimeter against the Bills, but Izien was fantastic in run support against the Jets, tallying three tackles for loss. If Izien can replicate that performance, Detroit’s run defense could take another step toward legitimacy.
Advantage: Draw. I just don’t have enough data to feel any sort of way about Detroit’s run defense, but the Panthers run offense isn’t scary enough for me to give them an advantage.
Last week’s prediction
On Paper moves to 3-0 on the season and 2-1 against the spread after Detroit narrowly covered against the Jets last week. I still feel pretty dang good about my 24-20 prediction given how close New York actually was in that game. However, I underestimated Detroit’s ability to bounce back in run defense after the Bills game, and I certainly didn’t give Gibbs and a healthy offensive line enough credit. Detroit’s ability to control the line of scrimmage last week should bode well moving forward.
In the comment section, we had our very first perfect prediction of the season. task0778 nailed it perfectly with their 31-24 Lions prediction. Here is your prize, task. Please feel free to share it with Brad Holmes.
This week’s prediction
Detroit comes out with a +0.5 advantage, which feels perfect for this. The Lions are likely a better team in at least two of these matchups, maybe three. But they are so vulnerable in pass defense that the Panthers can—and probably will—keep this game close via explosive plays through the air. Still, with some serious inconsistencies from Young and company, Detroit should still walk away winners on Sunday night. Lions 37, Panthers 31.
