Few saw this coming from the Tampa Bay Rays. They haven’t just given the Yankees a run for the money, but they sit atop the AL East standings, as well as the overall American League standings, as these two clubs square off for a weekend matchup in late May. Though both teams have gotten off to both starts, they’ve taken very different routes to get there. You’ll find elite talent on both sides, with the likes of Junior Caminero and Aaron Judge, but what we’re interested in is what makes each club stand out above
the rest.
We begin on the offensive side of the ball, where the Yankees are fourth, and the Rays are eighth in runs scored. Both teams hover around the best offenses in the American League, but they go about it in opposite directions. While the Yankees heavily rely on power, leading baseball with 73 home runs, the Rays’ 41 have them ranked 27th out of 30 MLB teams.
Some version of a dropoff in power from last season was always expected from Tampa, making the move back from George Steinbrenner Field to the Trop. In Caminero, the Rays have a star bat whose 13 home runs put him close to the best in the American League, but what generates this staggering difference between the Rays and Yankees is in how they complement their stars offense.
While Tampa has to look for bats with alternative skill sets to surround the likes of Caminero and Yandy Diaz, such as Chandler Simpson and Richie Palacios, the Yankees can afford to stack on power. It’s actually scary to think that their offensive numbers are what they are, despite Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham vastly underwhelming and Giancarlo Stanton sidelined. On the flip side, even with so many fewer home runs, the Rays don’t sit far apart from the Yankees on the run-scoring table with the third-highest average and OBP in baseball—New York is at 22nd and 8th, respectively. Just because power is king doesn’t mean you can’t thrive by putting the ball in play, particularly if you get on base enough.
Moving over to the pitching side of things, the Yankees and Rays sit fourth and fifth, respectively, in ERA+, although there happens to be a rather sizeable gap between them, the Yankees at 128 and the Rays at 117. Much as it is the case offensively, the Rays manage to make it a closer battle than it should be for the staff with the third-fewest strikeouts, while the Yankees are number three in the American League with 449 K’s. The same goes for home run prevention, where, in particular, the Yankees’ rotation has thrived, number one in the sport. Tampa’s bullpen has had difficulties keeping the ball in the yard, and outside of the two-headed monster of Griffin Jax and Bryan Baker, their unit has lacked the depth to truly dominate opposing batters.
Virtually operating with a four-man rotation up to this point, the Rays lack the depth to sustain potential injuries, something the Yankees have done incredibly well up to this point. And that’s not to mention Nick Martínez’s likely unsustainable production with a 1.51 ERA in nine starts.
The number one lesson to take away from all of this is that the general assumption that the Yankees remain favorites to win the AL East isn’t without merit. They have a far sturdier foundation in the key aspects of a big league club: ability to hit for power, strikeout prowess—it all favors the Yankees. Their depth has been tested so far and survived, while the Rays could be headed for a bout of regression at some point. That being said, we know not to fully underestimate the Rays by now. The games they’ve won can’t be taken away, and they’ve built a lead in the AL East. Even if the Yankees have a better roster on paper, they have plenty of work to do if they want to reclaim the top spot in the division.
