A new feeling surrounds Northwestern’s season — one of renewed optimism and tangible progress. The Wildcats’ 42–7 homecoming rout of Louisiana-Monroe gave them back-to-back wins for the first time since 2023, and now they have a chance to prove themselves on one of college football’s biggest stages.
The Wildcats travel to Beaver Stadium on Saturday to face a Penn State team searching for answers after a stunning 42–37 loss to a previously winless UCLA. The Nittany Lions have dropped two straight Big
Ten games and look nothing like the squad that opened the season ranked No. 2 in the country.
For David Braun’s team, it’s a chance to make a statement. For James Franklin’s, it’s a must-win to stop the spiral. This matchup is way more intriguing than anyone expected just two weeks ago, and it could genuinely go either way. Here’s how Northwestern can pull off another surprise, and how its upset upside might all come undone.
Why Northwestern will beat Penn State
Momentum and belief are real
The Wildcats are playing their best football of the season. After an uneven start that included early turnover issues, they’ve cleaned up mistakes and finally look comfortable executing their scheme.
Northwestern has scored 59 points and allowed just 21 over its last two games. Preston Stone has thrown five touchdowns without an interception in that same stretch, while the defense continues to rank among the nation’s best in scoring and passing yards allowed. The ‘Cats of late don’t beat themselves, something that can go a long way against a Penn State team struggling to find rhythm.
Braun said Monday that his team is “grounded and humble,” but belief is growing.
“This is a fun group to coach,” Braun said. “You can sense the level of confidence starting to go up.”
That belief matters against a Penn State team that suddenly looks unsure of itself. The Nittany Lions’ defense gave up 42 points to a UCLA offense that Northwestern held to 14. Northwestern now has proof that its Week 4 win was more than just surviving an 0–3 opponent, it was a sign of growth that can continue to be realized this week.
The run game helps control the pace
Northwestern’s identity has taken shape around the ground attack and has defined its recent turnaround, quietly becoming one of the Big Ten’s most reliable. Over their past four games, the Wildcats have rushed for 281, 178, 199 and 246 yards respectively for six touchdowns in that span.
Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon II have become a reliable duo, and redshirt first-year Dashun Reeder has emerged as a spark plug of a third option. Reeder ran for 79 yards against Louisiana-Monroe, bringing his season total to 171 yards on just 15 carries. Braun also made a point to say that Himon’s role specifically “has to be elevated and expanded” this weekend, which is something to look out for.
Penn State has not handled running quarterbacks or multi-back systems well so far this season. The Nittany Lions have struggled to contain the run since losing linebacker Tony Rojas to injury, and rank 88th in the country in opponent rushing yards per game.
UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava ran for 128 yards and three touchdowns last week, often finding open lanes through delayed reads. Stone is not as dynamic a runner as Iamaleava, but his 49 rushing yards last week showed he can extend plays when needed. If Northwestern can control tempo and sustain drives, it will limit Penn State’s offensive rhythm and the crowd’s impact.
Braun noted that Northwestern “has to continue to take a great deal of pride in consistently running the football, staying ahead of the chains,” and said that mindset “has to show up this Saturday.” Against a Penn State defense gashed for 280 yards on the ground by UCLA (the same UCLA that ran for only 107 yards in Evanston), the Wildcats’ commitment to the run could be their best weapon.
Northwestern’s defense can keep it close
Braun’s defense continues to thrive on physicality and fundamentals, allowing just 19.5 points per game and 178.8 passing yards per contest, both top-30 marks nationally. Linebacker Mac Uihlein leads the charge with his tackling and coverage instincts, while NFL hopefuls Aidan Hubbard and Anto Saka’s pressure off the edge has disrupted opposing quarterbacks. Cornerback Fred Davis II has also anchored a secondary that is drastically improved from last season, despite injuries.
That disciplined front could give Penn State problems. The Nittany Lions’ offensive line has struggled to generate consistent push and their receiving core has been shaky at best. Costly turnovers in crunch time cost them both the Oregon and UCLA games, so a similar takeaway would be huge for the Wildcats. Most importantly though, Northwestern’s ability to force teams into third-and-long situations has been key in its last two wins, and it will be key again if it is to win this game.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Penn State
Happy Valley is unforgiving
Northwestern has played four of its first five games at home in a 12,000-seat stadium. Saturday’s atmosphere at Beaver Stadium, which has almost 9 times the capacity of Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, will be unlike anything this team has faced.
According to Braun, the ‘Cats have prepared by simulating “crowd noise” and “a little bit of chaos” in practice, but there’s no true substitute for 100,000+ fans on the Nittany Lions’ Homecoming weekend.
Communication issues, false starts and clock management can all become problems fast. One bad play call is all it takes to cause a turnover and shift momentum permanently.
Braun has emphasized that “comfort is our enemy,” but the Wildcats haven’t been truly uncomfortable yet. Against a team still clinging to Big Ten relevance, the noise and emotion could be overwhelming if Penn State starts fast.
Penn State will be locked in this time
Much of UCLA’s success came from catching the Nittany Lions off guard after their loss to Oregon. That won’t happen again. Franklin’s team has heard every criticism this week and will be intent on proving the UCLA game was an anomaly. As simple as it sounds, a more prepared and furious Penn State team is a dangerous one.
The Wildcats must also avoid overcorrecting. After a great performance from Preston Stone versus ULM, there’s a risk of becoming too pass-happy and abandoning the run game that has defined their turnaround. We saw what happened at Tulane the last time Stone felt the need to play “hero ball” — it was not pretty.
Penn State’s front seven is still talented despite Rojas’ aforementioned absence, and the defense will likely play with renewed intensity. The Wildcats have thrived when able to dictate pace, but if the Nittany Lions win the battle up front and stuff early runs, it could force Stone into situations that favor Penn State’s athletes.
Penn State still has more firepower
Despite inconsistency, Penn State’s offense remains dangerous. Drew Allar played one of his best games of the year against UCLA, throwing accurately on the move and leading the team with 78 rushing yards.
Running backs Kaytron Allen (two touchdowns at UCLA, a la Caleb Komolafe, last week) and Nicholas Singleton are still capable of explosive plays, and tight end Luke Reynolds has been a steady target overall. On defense for the ’Cats, injuries to guys like Yanni Karlaftis certainly raise some questions that Penn State will be looking to take full advantage of.
If the Nittany Lions’ offense finds balance early, Northwestern’s defense may finally crack under sustained drives. For all of NU’s improvement, it has yet to face a team with this level of size and depth. Even if Penn State is not the world beater it was projected to be in the preseason, it cannot be chalked off talent-wise just because of one historic loss.
The bottom line
Northwestern’s confidence, rushing attack and defensive discipline give it a legitimate chance to keep this game competitive. Still, Penn State’s desperation, crowd energy and talent edge make it the favorite to pull away late.
Braun’s team has shown resilience and growth since September. Whether that translates to a win in Happy Valley will depend on execution and poise in the toughest environment of their season.
It’s worth noting that the last time Northwestern played at Penn State’s Homecoming game was in 2014, and the Wildcats won handedly 29–6. Beating James Franklin in both his first Penn State Homecoming and what very well could be his last would make for some pretty satisfying bookends. That 2014 ‘Cats team finished 5–7 with just three conference wins, a trajectory that feels oddly familiar eleven seasons later (just saying).
