How the Dolans Do Business, Part II: The Machine
– by Mario Crescibene
In January, I wrote a piece about the Dolans and why the Guardians wouldn’t spend. The argument was simple: the Dolans aren’t trying to win championships; they’re trying to maximize systemic value. The concept is simple in theory: develop prospects, trade them at peak value, restock the system, and repeat until you have a fully stocked five-tier system. A self-sustaining machine designed to maximize franchise value for an eventual sale.
I expressed doubt whether the pipeline was
truly working — with names like Jhonkensy Noel, Jonathan Rodriguez, and Nolan Jones having passed through the ranks — and argued that while the pipeline keeps growing, the prospects keep failing to deliver at the major league level. But some of those prospects are finally beginning to prove why they were so highly touted. So now that it’s April and the season is under way, let’s analyze the machine the Guardians have built, and the state it’s in.
The grid below maps the Guardians’ position players across the organization. For the purpose of this article, we will look at the outfield and infield as position groups, while separating catchers and first basemen. We will also be looking at the pipeline before Arias was placed on the IL. Names in red highlight MLB Pipeline Top 100 Prospects, and bold names are organizational top 30 prospects. The numbers in parentheses show their organizational ranking first, and their MLB Top 100 Ranking second, where applicable. Kayfus, Halpin, Jones, and Fairchild are in bold as they have all played in the majors.
The names that appear at the bottom of each level are intriguing prospects with potential, but are not yet considered to be in competition with the top three prospects in each position group. What matters is the chain of succession for each position, and the internal battles taking place at each level. Because what you’re looking at isn’t just a pipeline. It’s a prospect-selection-machine:
At every level, there are three players competing within the same position group. When a spot opens — whether through a promotion, a trade, or an injury — the best performer at the level below gets selected. And so the chain shifts up one link, and a new competition begins at each level. Nobody gets blocked. Nobody is handed anything. Everyone must prove themselves to the machine.
We already saw it happen when Gabriel Arias went down with an injury. Looking at the infield group at Triple-A, Juan Brito was the guy to get the call. Boom. Now a hole opens up at Triple-A in the infield. So, Juan Benjamin gets the call from Akron — although they could have easily called up Angel Genao. Then Akron made the corresponding move of activating Jake Fox from the IL to fill his roster spot. Much to the chagrin of the infield prospects waiting in Lake County.
So now Brito gets a chance to prove himself at the major league level and Benjamin gets the development opportunity that comes from playing in Columbus. The chain shifted in real time, moving four players simultaneously without missing a beat. Exactly the way it was designed to.
And when Arias comes back — let’s say a month from now — the front office will have a real decision to make. Do they send Brito back down? Keep Brito and trade Arias? Package both and bring Bazzana up to take second base? All three make sense. But that’s not a problem; that’s what it looks like when you’ve built a system from a position of abundance rather than necessity.
But perhaps the most beautiful part about the machine is that it’s self-filtering. Arias will perform or he won’t. Brito will perform or he won’t. For any player who fails to prove themselves to the machine, there are three eager players in the minors ready to make their case. And for those the machine finds lacking, there is still value to be had.
This is what happened with Jonathan Rodriguez. Rodriguez hit .290 with 23 home runs at Triple-A Columbus last year. He was a star at that level but couldn’t show it during his time in Cleveland. So the Guardians traded him for a Double-A pitcher. They had maximized Rodriguez’s value and already had Watson, Halpin, Jones, and Fairchild at Triple-A. Not to mention DeLauter and Valera finally healthy and ready to prove themselves in the majors. Rodriguez maxed out as a Quad-A player, so the machine moved him along for a younger player. But Rodriguez isn’t a failed prospect; he’s part of the exhaust from an engine running at full capacity. You develop prospects, you max out their value, and you cash them in for younger prospects that feed back into the bottom of the system.
When I wrote my first pipeline article last year, you could see the concept taking shape. The bones were there but there were still too many broken links in the chain. This year is different. When you look at the rosters up and down the system, you can feel the weight of the names that appear… even if the statistics haven’t caught up this early in the season.
Lake County is stacked. Columbus has players knocking on the door at every position. Even Akron, the thinnest of the three affiliates, has Genao, Velazquez and Rosario — three legitimate prospects — anchoring their lineup.
There are admittedly still holes in the system. This isn’t a fully linked chain from Hill City to Progressive Field just yet. But give it another year or two of the same approach and you’ll start to see all the links connect. The machine is closer to complete than it has ever been.
It will be a fascinating season to watch the gears turn. At some point, Arias will come back from the IL. If Bo struggles and Cooper Ingle continues to perform in Triple-A, a decision will have to be made. Will the front office use the slew of outfield prospects waiting their turn as a rationale to cash in on Kwan and get a haul of prospects? Injuries will undoubtedly open opportunities for younger players to prove themselves. And through it all, the machine’s gears will keep turning.
Do you buy into the machine the Dolans have built?
If you’re the GM, who are you moving to keep the machine primed?
Which prospects are you highest on/most excited to follow?
