The six-game series for the Ohio Cup in 2026 begins tonight. Everything is on the line. Or something like that.
The Reds are 23-21 with a -14 run differential (even after just winning by 14 runs yesterday, wow!), 21st in wRC+ at 94, 13th in baserunning runs above average at 1, 17th in Defense at -7.9, 22nd in ERA at 4.65 (4.80 FIP), and 23rd in bullpen ERA at 4.61 (4.95 FIP).
The Guardians are 24-21 with a +4 run differential, 19th in wRC+ at 96, eighth in baserunning runs above average at 1.5, 15th
in Defense at -6.8, seventh in starting pitcher ERA at 3.72 (4.04 FIP), and 14th in bullpen ERA at 3.95 (3.91 FIP).
Right now, the Reds look like a bad team that has been playing over their skis (not unusual for Terry Francona teams, of course), and the Guardians look like a ballclub becoming a good team on paper. Let’s see how that plays out over the next few days.
Matchups:
Friday, 7:10PM ET: Andrew Abbott, LHP 4.47 ERA (4.38 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP 4.17 ERA (4.39 FIP)
Saturday, 6:10PM ET: Chris Paddack, RHP 7.63 ERA (4.97 FIP) vs. Gavin Williams, RHP 3.74 ERA (3.85 FIP)
Sunday, 1:40PM ET: Brady Singer, RHP 5.79 ERA (6.18 FIP) vs. Joey Cantillo, LHP 2.98 ERA (4.12 FIP).
The Reds are led by JJ Bleday who in a limited sample size has a 224 wRC+, Elly De La Cruz with a 144 wRC+, Nathaniel Lowe at 131 wRC+, Sal Stewart at 118 wRC+ and Spencer Steer at 117 wRC+. Of course, they also have Will Benson who has an 94 wRC+ right now but for his career against his former team has a 226 wRC+ with 4 homers in 37 plate appearances. Would really appreciate our catching savants devising a plan to keep him from repeating that this weekend.
The Guardians are led by Chase DeLauter at 146 wRC+, David Fry at 133 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann at 128 wRC+, Travis Bazzana at 117 wRC+, Angel Martinez at 114 wRC+, Rhys Hoskins at 110 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio and Austin Hedges both at 108 wRC+, and Jose Ramirez at 101 wRC+. Kyle Manzardo since May 1st has a 111 wRC+, a trend that really needs to continue for the offense to thrive.
The Reds have some hitters so the Guardians really need to score some runs off some favorable pitching matchups to win this series. And keep Will Benson from exacting a horrific revenge yet again.
