The fate of the College Football Playoff’s future remains a hot topic in the offseason, and one proposal would certainly give the Syracuse Orange better odds to make it.
Support is growing to expand the CFP from its current 12-team format to 24 teams. Now, it seems like the ACC is clearly on board with such an idea:
Broadly speaking, the conversation in football is similar to college basketball and its recent expansion of the NCAA Tournament: Be careful what you wish for. We’ll get to that in a second.
But if the focus is solely on what this means for Syracuse, it would greatly improve the odds of getting non-bowl, playoff opportunities.
Since the sport transitioned to a playoff system — originally a four-team format — in 2014, Syracuse has finished in the final CFP top 25 twice.
The first happened in 2018, when the Orange finished 10-3 and had its best conference record since joining the ACC at 6-2. The other occurred more recently in 2024, when ‘Cuse also went 10-3 (including a bowl win). In those two seasons, it finished No. 20 and No. 21, respectively, in the final CFP rankings.
The 2022 campaign, when the program started 6-0 before losing six of its last seven, marks the only other time in the last 12 years it even cracked the CFP rankings.
Given Syracuse’s history, the consistent, year-over-year results are just not present. Even with a new head coach, better investment, and greater optimism, it is still tough to come by for the program, given where everyone else is at.
A system like the 12-team one requires having nearly-perfect results in a conference like the ACC, and especially for a school like Syracuse. In a 24-team format, that certainly changes the bar, for better or worse.
The Athletic recently did the work of crunching all the numbers — between 2014 and 2025, who would’ve made the 24-team bracket?
Syracuse would’ve done so twice, presumably as one of the last few seeds in for 2018 and 2024. But, so would a lot of other teams. In fact, 80 of them over the last 12 seasons.
In the Orange’s case, it would definitely lower the bar for getting into the CFP. But looking at the broader context, it also means more spots being taken up by 8-4 Big Ten and SEC programs.
If the 24-team model had been used for the 2025 season, only three ACC teams would have made it in: Miami (No. 10), Virginia (No. 19), and Georgia Tech (No. 22). In most years, three seems like the magic number for the conference. Maybe four.
Since 2014, Syracuse has only finished in the top four in the conference twice: the aforementioned 2018 (second/third) and 2024 (fourth) campaigns.
(Writer’s note: the ACC still had divisions during the 2018 season, but Syracuse had the second-best ACC record and the better overall record compared to it was tied with: Pittsburgh.)
Historically speaking, it would give the Orange a better chance for sure. Not much of an improvement in odds considering its own history, but they’re certainly an improvement. And if this new format is to make the 24-team CFP or be in the conversation every year, then that’s what the team will play for.
That said, there would be unintended consequences.
Lowering the bar means the regular season becomes diluted. Maybe not in Syracuse’s case exactly, given its history. Then again, maybe it would. Why should the Orange schedule future games versus Notre Dame and Penn State when it could dilute the non-conference slate, rack up guaranteed wins, then put all the eggs in the conference record basket? This format feels like it would embrace that: it looks better to see 9-3 than 8-4.
This format also sounds like conference championships, once a staple of the sport, would be gone. Syracuse has never scratched the surface of that, but there used to be pride there. Now, it’s seen as a potential blemish on the resume for the loser (see: Clemson versus SMU in 2024).
The most important point: Do 24 teams actually deserve to be in the mix to win the college football championship?
For Syracuse, it would definitely be great just to have your team’s name even mentioned in the ballpark.
But if the standards get lowered, does it make it feel equally deserving?
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