How To Watch:
Sunday, March 22
Utah State vs. Arizona (7:50 p.m. EST) | Coverage: TruTV
Location: San Diego, Calif.
FanDuel Odds:
Utah State vs. Arizona
Betting Line: Arizona -11.5 (-120)
Moneyline: Arizona -880, Utah State +580
O/U: 155.5 (-110)
(Check out FanDuel Sportsbook here. Odds and lines are subject to change.)
No. 9 Utah State had its hands full in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament against No. 8 Villanova, but escaped with a 86-76 victory after missing just two shots over the game’s final 12:45. The back-and-forth duel was led by
MJ Collins, who came alive in the second half, and Mason Falslev, who scored a team-high 22 points on 9-of-16 shooting.
Truthfully, it was one of the best games of the first round, which saw a record 13 games finish with a 20-point differential or greater. It marked Utah State’s second NCAA Tournament victory since 2001.
Arizona presents a completely different animal, though.
The Wildcats, the No. 2 overall seed, dominated in the opening round against No. 16 Long Island, 92-58. Brayden Burries led the way with 18 points on 6-of-10 shooting and 4-of-5 from 3-point range. It marked the 12th time this season that they scored at least 90 points.
Arizona lost just two games all season: Kansas (82-78) and Texas Tech (78-75, in OT), in back-to-back games on Feb. 9-14. Other than that, Arizona’s been perfect, evidently leading them to a No. 1 seed. They’re loaded with talent — Burries, Koa Peat, Mo Krivas, Jaden Bradley and Ivan Kharchenkov, among others — which will be a tall task for Utah State to deal with, figuratively and literally.
Keys To Victory:
Keep Arizona out of paint: Arizona takes threes at the third-lowest clip in America. They live in the paint, and they will present a ton of size with the 7-foot-2 Krivas and 6-foot-8 Peat. Utah State’s matchup zone has done a good job protecting the paint all year. But it also hasn’t faced a team with the combination of size and strength that Arizona possesses. If they can keep Arizona out of the paint and force, say, Kharchenkov to beat them from deep, their chances at pulling off an upset improve.
Rebound, rebound, rebound: As a result of their brute size and strength, Arizona has a top-6 offensive rebound rate and a top-35 defensive rebound rate. USU, on the other hand, is a bottom-third team on the defensive glass, despite being respectable on the offensive glass. Utah State must keep Krivas, Peat and Tobe Awaka off the backboards while finding a way to steal some extra opportunities offensively.
Defend without fouling: All of these keys play hand-in-hand with one another, to a certain extent. We know the Aggies will have to play a near-perfect game offensively. But they must also defend without fouling on the defensive end; it must win the free-throw battle. 25 is the key number; Utah State is 6-5 this season when they allow a team to attempt 25-plus free throws, a threshold that Arizona’s exceeded 22 times this season. Upsets are completed on the margins, and Utah State’s defense will have to toe the thin line of being incredibly physical while not being overly combative.
Prediction: Arizona 82, Utah State 66
