In a recent Groupthink, the Masthead was asked to predict our #1 draft pick for the Houston Texans. Since there are 11ty million mock drafts out there currently, including a few right here on Battle Red Blog
, I went a different direction.My scenario was pure fantasy. Nick Caserio traded a few picks to jump up and draft Jeremiyah Love. Having him, David Montgomery and Woody Marks in the backfield would make C.J. Stroud’s life a whole lot easier.
Unfortunately, as we approach the draft, Love’s stock
is rising like a tsunami with a lot of talking heads expecting him to go in the Top 3-5 picks. But, the reality of what Caserio would have to give up to jump into the Top 5 just might not be worth it.
Here’s why (thanks to OverTheCap.com for this handy-dandy pick value chart)
(bear in mind, this chart is a guide, not necessarily law)
Houston has the 28th pick, valued at 660 points. The 5th pick is valued at 1700 and the 3rd is 2200.
The 38th pick, Houston’s 2nd, is 520. So, trading their first two picks will only yield 1180 points. Toss in their next shot, the 59th pick, and you jump up to 1490. Still not enough to crack the Top 5. And the deeper into the draft you go, the lower the value of the pick, ‘natch.
So then, maybe the Texans can dive into trading picks from 2027 or 2028 to ease the pain of this season’s draft haul.
But, is it really worth it for a running back in today’s NFL? Most would say no.
However, Houston’s offensive scheme is predicated on having a dominant run game.
Do they push the chips to the middle of the table for a 2026 Super Bowl run and get Love? Maybe.
For precedent, we need look no further back than the Will Anderson Jr. trade. Caserio blew everyone’s minds by leveraging the future to take the only consensus “sure thing” player in the draft.
Based on this week’s news of Anderson’s giant payday, sounds like Caserio’s move worked out really, really well.
As of this writing, Love is considered by many as the only consensus “sure thing” in the 2026 draft.
To add further plausibility to this thought, the Arizona Cardinals, a trade partner of Caserio’s in the past, holds the #3 pick. And, guess what they want to do with it:
Arizona is rumored to either pick Love or trade the pick for more picks from a willing trade partner – likely one they trust and have trade history with, that makes them more confident in a blockbuster deal.
Currently, the Texans aren’t the only team with a number of picks and a desire to have the best running back prospect in years.
Does this mean the Texans won’t trade up to grab an offensive lineman, and go for Love instead? No.
Is offensive line a position of need? Absolutely.
Logically it makes more sense for Houston to find a trade partner to bolster the o-line. However, none of the o-linemen are “sure things” and Caserio’s history of drafting o-linemen hasn’t been a sure thing either.
With all that in mind, what jersey number would you want to see Love wearing when he dons the Battle Red?
