I don’t know about y’all, but I’ve been buzzing ever since the NFL’s season opener on Wednesday. I missed this sport so much. The mind-bending athleticism. The schematic wrinkles. The dumb penalties. The momentum swings. The cringy announcing. Inject all of it into my veins. WE’RE BACK!
Everyone’s preseason predictions are about to be turned upside down, if they haven’t been already. The undisputed Super Bowl favorites have already dropped a game. The reigning champions are vulnerable with their starting
quarterback now hurt. Drake Maye is suddenly a fraud.
Allow me to lean on my priors one more time before the Jacksonville Jaguars kick off their 2026 season and reshape our opinions. The Jags are 8.5-point favorites against the Cleveland Browns, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can find my score prediction in our staff roundtable preview. (Spoiler: I like the Jags to cover.)
Let’s get to some predictions.
Deshaun Watson commits multiple turnovers
Watson has a 7-0 all-time record against the Jaguars — including an upset win at TrEverBank Stadium in the 2024 home opener — but today’s version is not the same quarterback who once led the NFL in passing yards and hoisted a national championship trophy.
Anthony Campanile has to be salivating. As eager as his Jaguars defense is to hunt down bigger game, they’ll attack this lame duck of a Week 1 opposing quarterback with full intensity. The game plan probably states, “1) Stop the run. 2) Wreck their shit.”
Jacksonville will feel the absence of Devin Lloyd and may take time to adjust to a scheme shift. “Campanile tweaked his coverage plan this offseason: Instead of leaning on traditional zone, the Jaguars will play more match concepts with man principles,” Bucky Brooks detailed. “This plays to [Travis] Hunter’s strengths as an athletic cover man with supreme ball skills. The decision to place him at left cornerback makes perfect sense, putting a bona fide ballhawk on the more-targeted side of the field.”
Cleveland also has some real-deal talent in its skill group. Harold Fannin Jr. arguably poses the biggest threat to the Jaguars as an uber-athletic target hog, but touches will also be manufactured to first-round pick KC Concepion. Fellow rookie receiver Denzel Boston has reportedly been outstanding in training camp, and Quinshon Judkins profiles as one of the league’s next premier rushers.
These guys are all proven playmakers… but how many plays can they realistically make with a laughable quarterback and hodgepodge offensive line? I’m guessing not many. The biggest mismatch of the game is Jaguars DL > Browns OL.
By about 1:26 p.m. on Sunday, the questions around Hunter’s role and Lloyd’s departure — and the regression allegations facing the Jaguars defense — will be totally forgotten by Jaguars fans.
Watson’s passing over/unders on FanDuel are set at 178.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. YEESH.
Trevor Lawrence leads all Week 1 passers in yards/attempt
If there was one turning point in the Jaguars’ 2025 season, it had to be the embarrassing Week 10 loss against Davis Mills and the division rival Texans. Inside the building, it’s simply referred to as “the Houston game.”
After the L, first-time head coach Liam Coen implored his quarterback to “let it rip,” and as offensive pieces clicked into place around him, Trevor Lawrence refound himself. Jacksonville won eight straight games.
Now entering his sixth pro season, Lawrence is set to not just reach expectations, but reset them. And the Browns defense is probably weaker along the edges than down the middle.
Denzel Ward remains one of the best cover defenders in the sport, but Jacksonville traded away Tyson Campbell for a reason, and Cleveland’s cornerback depth behind those two is uninspiring. Meanwhile, the Jags boast one of the league’s deeper pass-catching cores. Lawrence should have plenty of places to throw the football, and hopefully, plenty of time now that Myles Garrett has been freed.
Lawrence’s passing over/unders on FanDuel are set at 236.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. His rushing prop of 16.5 yards is even more tempting; Lawrence had 16+ rushing yards in 10 of his final 12 games last season, and we know the Jaguars want him to keep that up.
Jaguars lead by 10+ by halftime
There’s a collection of Jags fans who are scared to be hurt again — and that’s okay. We understand. But personally, after a full year of watching this new regime’s process, I’m bought in. They have my trust, dammit! I do believe they’ll take care of business on Sunday.
“You always want to start off fast,” Coen said at Wednesday’s presser. “You want to win for momentum purposes, whatever the next steps are. But, there’s so many teams that have poor starts and end up having really good years. So it’s like trying not to live and die by every game, especially not the first one. There’s enough on these guys as it is.
“It’s wild to, to say that we’re here. It’s here, it’s now, we want to try to stay in the moment, but yeah, it’s important to have a fast start and to set the tone of kind of how you want these guys to play. You hope that your play style does show up in Week 1 because, that gives you the best chance to win, is when we play the way that we have proven to be able to do so at times.”
The Jaguars are 5.5-point first-half favorites on FanDuel.
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