Abimelec Ortiz started his big league career on top of the world. In his first 11 games, he went 10 for 29 with 4 homers and a 1.160 OPS. It looked like the Nats not only replaced Luis Garcia Jr., but found an upgrade. However, big league pitchers have adjusted to Ortiz and he has come back to earth. Despite that, my faith in the young slugger remains high.
Just from the eye-test alone, Abimelec Ortiz looks hitterish. He has a beautiful left handed swing and always looks ready to fire. That swing took Ortiz from an undrafted free agent to a big leaguer in just a few years. Ortiz was a dominant power threat in the minors, with 116 career MILB homers. The power he showed in the Rangers system caught the Nats eyes and they made him part of the MacKenzie Gore package.
This season was more of the same for Ortiz, who slugged 18 homers in 85 AAA games. In Rochester, he posted an .845 OPS, though many of his underlying numbers suggested he should have been even better. Ortiz has never been the most highly touted prospect but he has always had power and makes more contact than you would expect.
That was sure the case when he burst on to the scene in the big leagues. With big league pitchers not having a book on him, Ortiz dominated early. He crushed fastballs and made consistent contact on pitches in the zone. That caught the league’s attention though, and pitchers adjusted.
Teams noticed Ortiz’s tendency to chase and exploited it. With a better scouting report on him, Ortiz has gotten his welcome to the big leagues moment. Before getting a hit at the end of last night’s game, the 24 year old was going through a 1 for 24 slump.
There was some bad luck and hard contact in that stretch, but some of his flaws got exposed. In the minors, Ortiz chased 27.6% of the time, which is right around average for the level. However, against better pitching that number has gone up to 36.7%, which is right in line with Keibert Ruiz.
With Ortiz facing big league pitching for the first time and pressing during his first slump, this is not a huge surprise. Ortiz is a fairly aggressive hitter by nature, but as he gets more experienced, he will have to find a way to tone it down.
His first two at bats last night were really ugly examples of Ortiz chasing. However, as the game went on, he started to make some adjustments. Even though he chased some pitches in the at bat, Ortiz did find a way to work a walk. He also smoked a low line drive the other way for a base hit at the end of the game.
Those at bats feel like potential momentum builders for the youngster. Ortiz is a pull hitter, and that is a big part of his success, but going the other way to get a knock was great to see. Along with being a power hitter, Ortiz’s ability to be adjustable and make contact is another strength. That is what makes him different from your run of the mill Quad-A power bat in my opinion.
Even after this slump, Ortiz’s numbers are still pretty encouraging. His OPS has dipped to .727, but his slugging percentage is high at .470. Ortiz’s bat speed is elite at 75.4 MPH, which points to serious power upside. He is also great at hitting balls at optimal angles and pulls the ball in the air over 25% of the time.
Ortiz is still doing most of the things that made me so excited about him as a prospect. When I dug into his profile prior to his debut, I saw a very complete hitter. The chase has come up against better pitching, but he still has huge power and makes contact at an average rate. That is a very exciting combination.
As Ortiz adjusts to big league pitching, I expect that chase rate to be closer to 28-30% rather than over 35%. With his skills, he can afford to chase a little more than average. I also think we could see another Big Abi heater before too long based on his last couple at bats.
I saw him gain confidence after that walk and hit. Like the rest of the team, yesterday’s offensive outburst seemed like it took a weight off his shoulders. We still have to see more, but I am still high on Abi.
A big reason why the Nats traded Luis Garcia Jr. is because of their belief in Ortiz. Nobody expected it to be perfect, but you can see the talent with this player. Hopefully he has a big finish to the season and locks down a role as the Nats first baseman against right handed pitching entering 2027.
