The San Francisco 49ers haven’t been favored in a game by more than 3.5 points all season. That’s not a complete surprise, as Mac Jones was the starter for much of the season, and he played multiple games
without George Kittle, let alone the slew of other injuries that occurred along the way.
Now that Brock Purdy is back, along with Ricky Pearsall, with a competent offensive line, oddsmakers are expecting the Niners’ offense to win comfortably against the Carolina Panthers. For the first time this season, they are favored by a touchdown. The 49ers are seven-point favorites, with the total on the game set at 49.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
If you are wagering on the 49ers this season, the under should never cross your mind — not with this defense. And the way the offense has moved the ball all season, there’s little reason to believe they’ll score fewer than 24 points, barring turnovers.
There are some favorable trends toward the over. San Francisco is on a 16-2 over run when they are priced -3 to -7 as a home favorite. Kyle Shanahan is 14-3 straight up in his last 17 games against teams scoring fewer than 19 points per game. So, you’re hoping Carolina scores, which hasn’t been an issue for most teams playing the 49ers this season.
As for what happens on the field, the Panthers will live in zone coverage, and that’s not been Brock Purdy’s strong suit. His completion percentage drops about 11 percentage points against zone coverage. The good news is that Carolina is a bottom-three team defensively in pressure rate. But this could be a game where Christian McCaffrey gets his revenge.
The Panthers are a team that has missed tackles at the 10th-highest rate this season. McCaffrey leads the league with 72 forced missed tackles. Plus, the ground game has gotten it going when George Kittle is on the field, and specifically in the formation. Running the ball should keep the offense in manageable down-and-distance situations.
The 49ers will do everything in their power to keep everything in front of them. It’s a sneaky good matchup for the defense, so perhaps the over might not be the best idea. Tetairoa McMillan, the Panthers’ first-round wide receiver, is as good as advertised. But he does most of his damage against man coverage, and the 49ers live in zone.
The goal for Robert Saleh will be to stop Rico Dowdle when the defense is in nickel. If they can, San Francisco can speed up Young on third down and potentially get off the field. If not, expect another shootout.
But the spread and the total tell you Shanahan won’t be stopped much, and the 49ers should win running away.
