When Jhoan Duran first arrived in Philadelphia at the trade deadline, it was hoped he would become the lock-down, automatic, 9th inning closer the team hadn’t had since Brad Lidge’s 2008 championship season.
Through his first 18 appearances with the Phils, Duran was exactly that. He allowed runs in only two of those 18 appearances, posted a 1.15 ERA with a 0.46 FIP, had 21 strikeouts, no walks and just 12 hits allowed in 15.2 innings. There was a sense of invincibility if the Phillies entered the 9th
inning with a lead and the Durantula’s entrance music hit.
Perhaps those expectations were unfair, but regardless, it’s difficult to say that same feeling of invincibility still exists.
On Tuesday night, Duran, asked to protect a 3-2 lead in the 9th, threw an 0-2, 101 mph fastball right down the middle of the plate that the Marlins’ Heriberto Hernandez smashed over the left-center field wall for a game-tying home run that would eventually send Miami to a disappointing 6-5 win over the Phils in 11 innings.
It doesn’t matter how hard you throw. You just cannot throw a fastball there, especially ahead in the count 0-2.
Over his last four outings, Duran has allowed three runs on four hits, two of them home runs, for a 6.75 ERA and an 8.40 FIP and two blown saves. Last Friday, Duran entered the 9th inning with a 5-4 lead in Los Angeles when he surrendered a game-tying solo homer to Andy Pages on another 0-2 mistake, a curveball that missed its location badly.
Duran isn’t the only reliever encountering some bumps in the road right now.
Instead of trading for a second arm at the trade deadline, Dave Dombrowski signed free agent David Robertson. The move has proved to be a good one, with Robertson posting a 2.31 ERA and a 2.63 FIP with 17 strikeouts and five walks allowed in his first 11.2 innings. He had allowed a run in just two of his first 13 appearances.
Last night, taking over in the 8th after seven brilliant shutout innings from Cristopher Sanchez, Robertson got the first out, then fell behind 3-1 to Griffin Conine. A down-and-in, 93 mph fastball later, Conine hit a ball out to right field to cut the Phils’ lead to 3-1.
Robertson would follow getting a pop out for the second out, then two straight hard-hit singles to Otto Lopez and Liam Hicks, the second of which allowed Lopez to score after Weston Wilson misplayed the throw to second from center fielder Harrison Bader.
In his last five outings, Robertson has allowed an 11.25 ERA, giving up 5 earned runs (6 total) with two walks, eight hits and three home runs allowed, giving up runs in four of those five appearances. He has not generated much swing-and-miss, a dangerous development for someone asked to protect late leads in a playoff series.
When the Phillies signed Robertson and traded for Duran, they did so knowing Orion Kerkering could no longer be fully trusted in those spots. Kerkering’s struggles continued last night in the 10th inning when he gave up two runs, albeit one of them the zombie runner to start the frame. In his last four outings, he allowed four earned runs (five total) on six hits and two walks with just four strikeouts and two home runs allowed. Since August 19, his ERA is 7.36, with an 11/8 K/BB ratio in 11 innings, and 14 hits allowed. That’s 22 baserunners in his last 11 innings.
The bullpen is having a rough time at the worst time. Over the last seven days, opponents are hitting .292 against them, with a 1.56 WHIP. The fact their ERA is just 3.78 belies their 5.73 FIP and indicates things probably should have been a bit worse. They are striking out just 19.0% of batters in the last week.
Is that a small sample size? Absolutely, but it’s important because the playoffs are just a week away and none of the Phillies’ highest leverage right-handed relievers are getting results. Leads are being blown.
During a long regular season, a bullpen is going to have its share of blowups, and the Phillies are not alone. On Tuesday night, Dodgers closer Tanner Scott blew a 4-3, 9th inning lead to the Diamondbacks in a 5-4 loss, trimming the Phils’ magic number for the No. 2 seed to 1.
Los Angeles’ ‘pen has been a train wreck most of the season, as has the Mets’. And as everyone remembers, the Phillies’ bullpen down the stretch in 2022 was in total flux as they bounced around from Robertson to Zach Eflin to Seranthony Dominguez to Jose Alvarado, none of whom asserted themselves as reliable late-inning options until the October bell rang.
It is unfair to ask high leverage relievers to be perfect, but in the playoffs, a set-up man has to be able to protect a three-run lead in the 8th inning. In the 9th inning, your 103mph-throwing closer has to protect every one-run lead.
After Game 4 of the 2023 NLCS, Phillies fans are all too aware of how devastating a single blown save can be. There really is no alternative. They have to be perfect.
Right now, trust in the Phillies’ late inning relievers, specifically their right-handed options, has taken a hit. A solid final five games could go a long way towards restoring some trust for a postseason run.
